Opportunity Buffet Part 2 | stockbee

7/26/2007

Opportunity Buffet Part 2

PCR, Perini Corp





That sums up the story of lat few days and shows the danger in this market. They are falling from the heights. In stock after stock and sector after sector the high fliers are taking it on chin. If you were not careful and late to get in to cash, you would have witnessed a large drawdown in few days or ended up giving up lot of open profit. After couple of painful hits like these in my early years, I developed the market monitor methodology as overall filter to identify possible risky areas. Go back and see my posts on it here and here. It is no fun losing 20% or more of your hard earned profit in few days. When I saw the 20 plus figure on stocks up 50% or more in a month few days ago, I started closing everything and playing only tactically. Market look most tempting and easy to trade at those levels, but that is when the danger is greatest.

ACEL,Alfacell Corporation (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ADG,Allied Defense Group (the) (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
AMAG,Amag Pharmaceuticals Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
AMIS,Amis Holdings (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ARTW,Art's-Way Manufacturing (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ARWR,Arrowhead Research Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ASFI,Asta Funding Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ASPM,Aspect Medical Systems (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ASTI,Ascent Solar Technologies Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ATMI,Atmi Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
AWC,Alumina Limited (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
AXL,American Axle & Manufact (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BBW,Build-a-bear Workshop (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BCR,C.R. Bard Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BELM,Bell Microproducts Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BGP,Borders Group Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BGT,Blackrock Global Fltg Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BIOS,BioScrip Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BKHM,Bookham Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BMI,Badger Meter Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BTJ,Bolt Technology Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BTUI,Btu International Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BUCY,Bucyrus International Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BUF,Minrad International Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CBI,Chicago Bridge & Iron Nv (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CCC,Calgon Carbon Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CEC,Cec Entertainment Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CECE,Ceco Environmental Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CERN,Cerner Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CHRW,C.H. Robinson Worldwide (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CMTY,Community Banks Mlrbg Pa (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CNH,Cnh Global Nv (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CNIC,Copernic Inc Common Stock (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
COHU,Cohu Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CRI,Carter Holdings Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CSCD,Cascade Microtech (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CVG,Convergys Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CVGI,Commercial Vehicle Group Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CVTI,Covenant Transportation Group (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CXG,CNX Gas Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CXZ,Crosshair Exploration (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CYD,China Yuchai Int Ltd (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
DAR,Darling International (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
DCGN,Decode Genetics Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
DESC,Distributed Energy Systems (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
DNN,Denison Mines CP (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
DROOD,DRD Gold Ltd Adr (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
DRYS,Dryships (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
DVW,Covad Communications Group Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
EBI,Evergreen International Balanced Income Fund (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
EDN,Empresa Distribuildora Comer (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ENG,Englobal Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ENWV,Endwave Corporation (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
EPIC,Epicor Software Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
EPIX,Epix Pharmaceuticals Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ESMC,Escalon Medical Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
FLML,Flamel Technologies Sa (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
FRM,Furmanite Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
FSTR,L.B. Foster Co Cl A (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
GETI,Gentek Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
GGAL,Grupo Financiero Galicia (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
GGC,Georgia Gulf Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
GLW,Corning Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
GPCB,GPC Biotech AG (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
HAYZ,Hayes Lemmerz International Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
HDNG,Hardinge Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
HMB,Homebanc Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
HOKU,Hoku Scientific Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
HRSH,Hirsch International Corp Class A (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
HTGC,Hercules Technology Growth Capital Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
HURN,Huron Consulting Group Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ICO,International Coal Group Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
IDMI,IDM Pharma Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
IESC,Integrated Electrical Services Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ILE,Isolagen Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
IMGN,Immunogen Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
IOC,Interoil Corporation (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
IOTN,Ionatron Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
IPAR,Inter Parfums Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
JADE,Lj Internat Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
JAKK,Jakks Pacific Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
JAV,Javelin Pharmaceuticals Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
JMBA,Jamba Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
JOYG,Joy Global Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
KHD,Khd Humboldt Wedag Intl Ltd (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
KMT,Kennametal Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
LEA,Lear Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MBRK,Middlebrook Pharma (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MCGC,Mcg Capital (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MDII,Midi Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MDTH,Medcath Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MEA,Metalico Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MED,Medifast Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MEH,Midwest Express Holding (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MERC,Mercer Internat Inc Sbi (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MFRI,Mfri Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MLNX,Mallanoc Technologies Ltd Ord (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MOBE,Mobility Electronics (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MXE,Mexico Equity & Income (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
NCZ,Nicholas Applegate Conv&incm (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
NGA,North American Galvanizing & Coatings Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
NNBR,Nn Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
NRP,Natural Resource Partners (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
NTRI,NutriSystem Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
OAKF,Oak Hill Financial Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
OMX,Officemax Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
OPTM,Optium Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PCAR,Paccar Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PCCC,Pc Connection Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PCR,Perini Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PCS,Metropcs Communications Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PED,Smartpros Ltd (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PFCB,P F Chang's China Bistro (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PMU,Pacific Rim Mining Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PNCL,Pinnacle Airlines (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PNRA,Panera Bread Co Cl A (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
POP,Pope & Talbot Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PRAA,Portfolio Recovery Assoc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PRXI,Premier Exhibitions Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PTT,Vcg Holding Copr (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PXLW,Pixelworks Incorporated (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
QXM,Qiao Xing Mobile Com (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
RDNT,RadNet Inc. (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
RES,RPC Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
RNT,Aaron Rents Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
RTI,Rti Internat Metal Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
RZ,Raser Technologies Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SATC,Satcon Technology Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SBCF,Seacoast Banking Cp Fl (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SBSA,Spanish Brdcstng Sys A (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SGR,Shaw Group Inc (The) (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SI,Siemens Aktien (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SKX,Skechers Usa Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SNCR,Synchronoss Technologies Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SNHY,Sun Hydraulics Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SPAR,Spartan Motors Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SPC,Spectrum Brands Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SPPI,Spectrum Pharm Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
STEC,Stec Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
STM,Stmicroelectronics Nv (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SUSQ,Susquehanna Bancshares (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
TARR,Tarragon Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
TDSC,3d Systems Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
TGEN,Targeted Genetics Cp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
TWIN,Twin Disc Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
TXCC,Transwitch Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
UCFC,United Community Finan (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
USEG,U.S. Energy Corp Wyo (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
USEY,U.S. Energy Systems Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
USG,Usg Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
VOLC,Volcano Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
VOLV,Ab Volvo Adr (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
VRTB,Vestin Realty Mortgage II Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
VSGN,Vasogen Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
VSR,Versar Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
WBSN,Websense Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
WOLF,Great Wolf Resorts (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
WPP,Wausau Paper Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
WSBC,Wesbanco Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
WSII,Waste Services Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
WVCM,Wavecom Sa Adr (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
XRX,Xerox Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ZBRA,Zebra Technologies Cp A (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ZHNE,Zhone Technologies Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart


Go through this list carefully and see stock after stock is falling out of bed. After such action the same stock seldom starts rallying again. It takes time for the stock to regain its momentum. New set of stocks take on leadership and the old favorite seldom recover. Notice these moves are happening at top of the range not at bottom. When there is panic and stock is at bottom of range, then one can buy as it indicates irrational selling and seller exhaustion, but in these top of the range breakouts any ralies just fail and provide good opportunity to put shorts.

Out of this the stocks to focus on for shorts are:

ARTW ASTI ATMI AWC BBW BELM BIOS BMI BTJ BTUI CBI CCC CECE CERN CNH CYD DAR DRYS EDN EPIC ESMC FRM FSTR GGC GLW HDNG HOKU HURN IESC JAKK KHD KMT LEA MDTH MEA MERC MFRI MLNX MXE NNBR NRP OAKF OPTM PCAR PCCC PCR PCS PRAA PRXI RTI RZ SGR SI SNCR SNHY STEC VOLV VRTB VSR WBSN WOLF WVCM XRX ZBRA

I would wait for a small rally to put shorts on most of these.

5 comments:

mike said...

So one should probably sell out and get in cash now?

Do you foresee this as a start of a prolonged correction?

Pradeep Bonde said...

I don't know , but I sold when the 50% level on intra day approached 20. After that I had only small swing trades. So all in all managed to retain almost all profits built during the move so far.

Jason said...

Pradeep,

On this chart for PCR, can you send me a list of the indicators that are shown so I can load them on my telechart? Thanks!

Pradeep Bonde said...

First panel: Blue .75 * MAXC130
Second Panel:
Orange: (100 * ((C + .01) - ( MINC260 + .01)) / (MINC260 + .01))>=100

Green: ( 100 * (C - C1) / C1) >= 10 AND V > 1000 AND C >= 5

Third Panel
Yellow: ( 100 * (C - C1) / C1) >=4 AND V >= 1000 AND V > V1

Light Blue (three formulas in same color)
( 100 * (C - C1) / C1) >= 20 AND V > 10000 AND C >= 5

( 100 * (C - C1) / C1) >= 30 AND V > 3000 AND C >= 5

(C - C1) >= 5 AND V > 10000 AND C >= 5

Red ( three formulas in same color)
( 100 * (C - C1) / C1) <= ( - 30) AND V > 3000 AND C >= 5

( 100 * (C - C1) / C1) <= ( - 20) AND V > 10000 AND C >= 5

(C - C1) <= ( - 5) AND V > 10000 AND C >= 5

Everything under % true.

Jason said...

Thank you Pradeep! Keep up the great work - your site is wonderful and very helpful.