Episodic Pivots Analysis | stockbee


Episodic Pivots Analysis

AETI | Catalyst: Takeover, merger etc | Float: 8M | EPS Rtg: 9 | RS: 46
American Electric Technologies Issues Letter to Shareholders

AIZ | Catalyst: Other | Float: 120M | EPS Rtg: | RS:
Assurant CEO and CFO may face SEC civil charges, breakout is within the range of yesterday's episodic breakdown

ALFA | Catalyst: Takeover, merger etc | Float: 77M | EPS Rtg: 58 | RS: 9
Shareholder offers to buy out, privatize Alfa

AOS | Catalyst: Earnings Acceleration | Float: 22M | EPS Rtg: 50 | RS: 64
A. O. Smith Announces Record Second Quarter Earnings of $.87 Per Share; Raises 2007 Forecast to $2.85 - $3.00 Per Share

AP | Catalyst: Earnings Acceleration | Float: 10M | EPS Rtg: 46 | RS: 91
Ampco-Pittsburgh 2Q Earnings Surge
Second-quarter earnings jumped to $10.2 million, or $1.01 per share, from $6.6 million, or 66 cents per share, in the second quarter of 2006.

Sales rose 18 percent to $88.7 million from $75.5 million a year ago, driven by high demand for the company's rolling-mill rolls from global steel and aluminum industries.

Ampco-Pittsburgh said orders on hand increased significantly during the first half of the year from the record levels at the end of 2006.

BLK | Catalyst: Earnings Acceleration | Float: 110M | EPS Rtg: 92 | RS: 55
BlackRock 2Q More Than Triples and BlackRock beats by $0.13, ex items

BWTR | Catalyst: New Contract | Float: 15M | EPS Rtg: 8 | RS: 88
Basin Water to provide groundwater nitrate removal treatment system for Pomona, California

CHB | Catalyst: Earnings Acceleration | Float: 76M | EPS Rtg: 14 | RS: 66
Champion Enterprises Reports Net Income of $0.10 per Diluted Share for the Second Quarter of 2007 (Beats expectation)

CP | Catalyst: Takeover, merger etc | Float: | EPS Rtg: 61 | RS: 87
Canadian Pacific shares soar on takeover talk also sector rally

DST | Catalyst: Earnings Acceleration | Float: 53M | EPS Rtg: | RS:
Anticipation for Earnings release after market close

DYII | Catalyst: Earnings Acceleration | Float: 7M | EPS Rtg: 62 | RS: 99
Continuation from 7/16 Earnings Release

GHS | Catalyst: New IPO | Float: 38M | EPS Rtg: | RS:
GateHouse Media says follow-on offering priced at $18.45/shr

HUM | Catalyst: Earnings Acceleration | Float: 160M | EPS Rtg: 93 | RS: 48
Humana Reports 2Q07 Earnings per Share of $1.28 and Raises Guidance for Full Year 2007 (Beat expectation)

ISPH | Catalyst: Takeover, merger etc | Float: 42M | EPS Rtg: 3 | RS: 12
Inspire Announces $75 Million Financing with Warburg Pincus (private equity)

M | Catalyst: Takeover, merger etc | Float: 458M | EPS Rtg: 83 | RS: 34
KKR eyeing Macy's with possible $24 billion offer

TCHC | Catalyst: Earnings Guidance Raise | Float: 7M | EPS Rtg: 8 | RS: 1
21st Century Holding Company Reaffirms 2007 Guidance

USNA | Catalyst: Earnings Guidance Raise | Float: 8M | EPS Rtg: | RS:
USANA Health Issues Strong Outlook also Earnings per share in the second quarter of 2007 increased by 19.7% to $0.66 per share, compared with $0.55 per share in the second quarter of the prior year.

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hector said...

thanks skytrader for your post, awesome research and the format is good and simple, is like having a personal research analyst, hope we get some good trades of the list, thanks again, always the best blog around,no doubt. lol

hector said...

i do have a question, may be out of the subject, but would like an opinion or at least steer me the right direction.We talked about EP's, Double trouble, IBD 200 ect. and how to protect profits and a big chunk goes to capital gains, so we are a little "in the hole" when we start the trade and some of them are going to be held less than a year because rotation .My question is what the best way to legally save taxes ,maybe individually or as a business. welcome any sugesstion. thanks

Pradeep Bonde said...

One of the ways to trade tax free is in your Roth IRA. It is legal tax shelter. Plus if you are married you can put in 8000 in a year between husband and wife. But you should have large pool in it to trade.
The other account which can similarly grow tax free is Coverdell, that is if you have kids. The annual limit is very low of 2000k and money goes to kid.
I use both these options aggressively.
I am sure tax consultant might have more ways.

hector said...

thanks Pradeep, i was not sure if i could use a Roth IRA to trade for retirement.Also looking for your opinion of today's market, because i was noticing at Barchart that Mr Market is losing momentum on average by looking at stocks advancing vs declining , however, theres many oportunities surfacing and it looks that leadership is changing by looking at the stocks moving today

Dan said...

How do you weigh EPS and RS ratings into your decision? Do you have a cut off point? for instance below 70 eps etc.


Mike Summers said...

I know a biotech primarily responds to new drug and fda approval stages for catalyst and that's it's primary cause for movement, but would you still expect a huge earnings suprize (like CBST) to respond with a Post Earnings Drift?

p.s. what's the Green text for?

Pradeep Bonde said...

In the EP method the catalyst is most important. The IBD EPS ratings are secondary. Dome catalyst like earnings acceleration or guidance, or series of new orders have the ability to launch mutli month rallies, the current EPS ratings or EPS numbers do not reflect that altered possibility.

Green ones are the selected ones out of the list for either entry on that day or entry after pullback.
Biotechs best traded on approval news.

ivanhoff said...

25.22% of CBST's float is shorted. the short ratio is 12. float is 37 mill.

Pradeep Bonde said...

Overeager traders bid it up too much looks like first time earnings trader. Good earnings trade today was BLX.

Nashas said...

Pradeep, thanks to your blog, it seems like everybody in the world (including grandma in Timbuktu) is playing earning strategy. So the question is: Is it going to stop working so well because people are going to bid stocks up too much like CBST, MOGN, SYNL etc.?

Pradeep Bonde said...

Don't worry after 3-5 trades not working 99% will stop trading it. The biggest mistake most make is chasing each and every one of them. Plus if you buy in pre market, your first print becomes the open, so many times you will be left holding the bag.
I don't even look at above 25 million float earnings play and unless stock is neglected.
Those who are serious and want to make money will stay till end of earnings season. Next earnings season, they will make tons of money.

Dan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dan said...

Biotechs best traded on approval news."

Do you have any more insight on earnings news versus industry like you stated above?

Also, can you go into more detail on how you arrived at BLX for a good trade?

thanks. D.

Pradeep Bonde said...

BLX news came very close to market open. It gapped just around dollar.

ivanhoff said...

FDA approval means potential earnings and that's why the street reacts so furiously on such news. Comming up with a surprising EPS growth and rising the outlook for next year sales is a real prove of company's profitability.
CBST has a P/E of 113 and almost 100% institutional ownership and maybe that's why some decided to take a quick double digit's profit after the gap this morning.
It is interesting to remark that days before the earnings' anouncement of CBST, there were purchased tens of thousands of out of the money call options, which might be a pure speculation or insider trading. It is most likely the first. Well, the institutions, which sold those calls don't want to see CBST's price going any further at least till tomorrow, when is an options' expiration day.
Of course, these are just my thoughts and everything could happen. In a short time frame many unexplainable things may happen in the market. Unexplainble, at least for me, who is a novice in trading.

Pradeep Bonde said...

CBST simply is not a neglected play. It has 4 analyst. It had Earnings Whisper estimate. Comparatively large float.

Tom T. said...

Pradeep - I have been listing EP candidates and trying to determine how much of a pullback or how long do we wait for entry - can you explain more how you trade - I have been using candlestick analysis for entry points - not very good results - what is your method for trading these stocks?

skytrader said...

By saying

Those who are serious and want to make money will stay till end of earnings season. Next earnings season, they will make tons of money.

Are you referring to the need to stick at it and have the patience to learn the subtle dynamics which make the difference between a profitable and losing trade?

Pradeep Bonde said...

om T
Will explain in todays Opportunity Buffet post.
By the end of earnings season there would be 500 to 700 stocks meeting the criteria. Once you see how market reacts to them, you will get enough perspective to understand what works and what does not work and why. So you know what to look for next season and what to avoid.

Tom T. said...

Skytrader - It looks like I forgot that the discussion thread started talking about earnings plays and my post was about trading episodic pivots. I think your comments to my post meant I was referring to trading earnings. I have not been following this type of trade for more than a month so I was hoping I'd get some comments on what to do with these candidates once they pop up on the scan. What I am confused about is some say get in day of pivot and hold on, others say wait for a pullback - which is it? How long do you hold, etc. Thanks, Tom T.

Tim said...

Tom T - I think it was Jesse Livermore that said something like you won't know until you bet. Buying many of these stocks on the day they make their first move will be profitable if you use a stop at the low of the past 2 days. Some will pullback giving you an initial small loss but your position can be increased if it moves back above the previous high. Look at past stocks that experienced such an event for how they continued afterwards. RIMM in 2003 and 2006 is a prime example. Gaps can also be a very powerful sign.