12/03/2022

Understanding the nature of a 20% move in less than a week will give you an edge.

 

Understanding the nature of a 20% move in less than a week will give you an edge.


To understand the 20% move keep aside all your current thinking, charts, indicator, MA, and stock phases. Start with a completely blank mindset.

Mark on the chart the 20% move using the following PCF

https://www.tc2000.com/~tSzZPq

c/c5>=1.2 and minv3.1>100000 and c>=3 bullish

c/c5=<.80 and minv3.1>100000 and c>=5 bearish

This is how the chart will look.




Now study 500 to 1000 stocks with just this indicator on it.

Write down your observations.


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11/29/2022

Your timeframe of trading is the most important decision that will determine how fast you can become profitable.

 

To learn a skill you need constant practice .

If a setup you select produces say 50 trades a month, you will have a lot of feedback on what is working and what is not.

If the setup you select has 10 trades in a year, then you will need 5 years to have enough experience to understand and perfect what works.

Performance improves with more practice and feedback.

Long-duration trades take months or a year for you to get feedback. As a result learning curve will be longer.

Very few traders think through this issue at the start of their career and as a result, spend years going nowhere.

Your timeframe of trading is the most important decision that will determine how fast you can become profitable.

11/27/2022

Key insight for traders

 

Short-term moves are easier to predict. You need fewer factors to consider when looking for an 8 to 20% move or a 3 to 5 days move.

Long-term moves are more difficult to predict and require more factors to be taken into consideration. and require more skills.


Much of the advice on trading you will find comes from traders trying to find longer-term moves. Wider stops, adding to a position, letting your profit run, do not sell early, phase two moves, and long bases are all aimed at traders looking for longer-term hold trades.

If you use that advice for short-term trading, you will see it often does not work. Short-term trading is a fundamentally different game.

Medallion Fund pioneered short-term trading.

Medallion started with intention of finding long-term moves' predictability, but they found short-term moves are more predictable and happen in larger numbers than longer-term moves. They found short-term trends of a few days or minutes are more predictable. That changed the paradigm in the trading world.

Medallion found that short-term moves are more predictable and if they can reduce trading costs and use very close stops, they can even make them more predictable.

As a trade ,you have two clear pathways if you think about this Short term or long-term. Do not mix the rules of the two.

11/19/2022

How you can enhance your trading

 


"If I have the belief that I can do it, I shall surely acquire the capacity to do it, even if I may not have it at the beginning." Mahatma Gandhi

The most important determinant of your success in trading or in your personal life is your self-efficacy beliefs.

In the last 20 years, I have talked to several successful traders including many very well-known traders, and interacted with them on regular basis and some of them are now personal friends.

One of the most compelling reasons why they are successful is they have high self-efficacy beliefs.

It is not their unique setup or scan or entry or exit or position sizing that can explain their success.

One thing that clearly separates traders who succeed and stay in-game for decades is their strong self-efficacy beliefs.

Because of their self-efficacy beliefs, they figured out profitable ways to trade. No one gave them a 1000-page manual on trading or held their hands when they were taking baby steps in trading. They figured out things for themselves. And they continue to tweak their approach to date.

Almost every successful trader I know of has developed their unique style on their own.

This is true of most Stockbee members also.

The days, months, and years they spent trying out different things and failing at it or losing money further enhanced their beliefs in their own capabilities.

Yes, they borrowed from some other traders ideas or books or courses but that is not the key to their success. They are self-made traders.

The most important determinant of your trading success will be your self-efficacy beliefs.

It might take a few days to understand that and some years. But once your self-efficacy beliefs about trading change things start to happen.

Once that is in place your self-talk will change to "hey I can do this", "hey I don't have all the answers but I am confident of finding the answers", and "hey I know how to bounce back from setbacks" .

When you attempt trading some find early success and some find early setbacks. That experience sets your self-efficacy beliefs.

Some people give up believing markets are too difficult or manipulated or beyond my understanding. Their self-efficacy beliefs dictate their behavior.

In the beginning year, I spent almost 18 to 20 hours trying various things going through hundreds of trading books, and testing hundreds of ideas.

The intense effort ultimately started paying off as more and more market and setup clarity started to show up and then I put my own method together and over the years modified it.

The same story repeats for most successful traders.

If you read Jesse Livermore's book it details how he developed his unique style after several efforts.

The Darvas book again details his struggle to develop his own method.

Every trader goes through the same phases as Livermore or Darvas or any other market wizards or successful traders like George Soros, Paul Tudor Jones, and Stanley Druckenmiller have also gone through the same learning curve and figured things out on their own.

In the Stockbee Advance Bootcamp, several traders presented and it is the same story for Stockbee members.

Once your self-efficacy beliefs specific to trading change you will start experiencing success.

That does not mean you will not have setbacks. If you have high self-efficacy you will find a method. If you don't have it, even the most profitable method will not work for you and you will keep finding faults with methods.

Self-efficacy beliefs are the biggest determinant of your trading success.

Unless you work on self-efficacy you will find many inhibitors and will be constantly dissatisfied with any method, guides, videos, or instructions, or site. You will constantly chase new methods, new scans, new claims, new gurus, new newsletters, and so on.

Psychologists have found that self-efficacy beliefs help determine how much effort people will expend on an activity, how long they will persevere when confronting obstacles, and how resilient they will be in the face of adverse situations. The higher the sense of efficacy, the greater the effort, persistence, and resilience.

Profitable trading involves all these challenges.

You need to put in a lot of effort to understand and internalize key concepts like equity selection, entries, exits, risk, and risk/reward and then put it all together.

In the process, you will have several setbacks and false starts. If you have enhanced self-efficacy beliefs you will persist in face of such adversities.

If you have a high sense of self-efficacy beliefs then you will spend time mastering trading software, mastering trading setups, and making them work. Absent that you will abandon your effort at the first hint of failure.

Learning to trade is not an easy task. It is one of the most challenging tasks you would handle in your life. Some are lucky and they find success instantly. For rest, it is a big battle.

People with a strong sense of self-efficacy beliefs approach difficult tasks as challenges to be mastered rather than as threats to be avoided. They have greater intrinsic motivation. That helps them to engage for long periods in activities and helps them overcome repeated obstacles. They do not have a discipline problem.

People with high self-efficacy beliefs set themselves challenging goals and maintain a strong commitment to them, and heighten and sustain their efforts in the face of failure.

People with high self-efficacy beliefs quickly recover their sense of efficacy after failures or setbacks and attribute failure to insufficient effort or deficient knowledge and skills that are acquirable rather than external circumstances.

Your self-efficacy beliefs also influence your thought patterns and emotional reactions.

This is critical in trading. You should not be overly excited by profit on a single trade and same way not get depressed by loss on a single trade. At the end of the day, trading is a probability game. High self-efficacy helps create feelings of serenity in approaching difficult tasks and activities and activities where the outcome is uncertain.

If you have low self-efficacy beliefs then often you believe that things are tougher than they really are. As a result, this belief fosters anxiety, stress, depression, loss of discipline, trading, and a feeling of being lost. You are unable to solve your own trading problem.

Psychologists believe that self-efficacy beliefs influence the level of accomplishment that one ultimately achieves.

Self-beliefs can also create the type of self-fulfilling prophecy in which one accomplishes what one believes one can accomplish. This further enhances self-efficacy beliefs. This leads to higher performance which, in turn, leads to higher effort and higher accomplishment which in turn further enhances self-efficacy.

The goal of this site is to constantly challenge you to enhance your self-efficacy beliefs. To constantly goad you to keep working on your self-efficacy beliefs. To challenge your existing beliefs. To provoke you to examine your current beliefs. To offer you a template for enhancing your self-efficacy beliefs.

If you do that then you will achieve your trading goals. And you will not need this site, or alerts, or alerts with sound effects.

Every day think of how you can enhance your trading-related self-efficacy beliefs.

11/14/2022

How to become good at trading

 




The only way to become good at trading is by enhancing your self-efficacy beliefs about trading


There are 5 ways to do that in order of importance

  • mastery experience: The first and foremost source of self-efficacy is through mastery experiences. To gain mastery experience you need to complete a hard task that challenges you successfully. Finding the right anticipation setups after running a scan and seeing their work will build mastery experience. Or going through Top 25 stocks and anticipating a b/o or b/d and entering it ahead of time will build it. Or identifying the right 3lynch candidate or weak structure short will build it. (Tool: Deep Dive , Bootcamps, mind clarity)
  • vicarious experience: watching others do it successfully. The second source of self-efficacy comes from our observation of people around us, especially people we consider role models or good traders. Seeing people similar to ourselves succeed through their sustained effort raises our beliefs that we too possess the capabilities to master the activities needed for success in trading. That is why seating in a cave is unlikely to make you successful but actively participating, watching, and interacting with other traders will. ( Talk to highly successful traders in Bootcamp )
  • verbal persuasion is the third source of self-efficacy beliefs. Being told you too can be successful in trading and make tons of money, itself can change your beliefs. Being persuaded that we possess the capabilities to master certain activities means that we are more likely to put in the effort and sustain it when problems arise. ( Daily Zoom Meeting KITA, Bootcamps)
  • visualizing yourself behaving effectively or successfully in a trading situation. Imaginary experience is as good as real experience in building self-efficacy. If you understand that and use visualization techniques, your self-efficacy will improve. ( Visualization Scripts)
  • positive emotional and psychological state. positive emotions can boost our confidence in our skills. Getting yourself in the right mood at the start of the trading day is essential for that. If you understand and work on these things you can make millions in the stock market. And the best part of this is that all these things are under your own control. ( Stockbee T shirt , the perfumes, the creativity cards)




What is mastery experience?


Mastery experience is basically a successful experience of mastering a task. Mastery experiences happen when the learner has reached the point where they understand the content knowledge enough to perform a task on their own or master the task.

It happens if the learner goes into sufficient depth on the material he is trying to learn. It happens as a result of immersion in a particular field or task. It happens with plenty of prior exposure to the content.

At some stage, the learners are able to interpret the results of their actions and use those results to develop their own capacity to engage in future actions or tasks. Then the learner becomes auto learner. They are able to participate in tasks on a first-hand basis with little or no assistance from outside influences.

When you experience an intense mastery experience you get feedback on your own capabilities.

Long and sustained efforts are required for mastery experience.

Self-efficacy beliefs are critical not only in academic situations but in any task like sports. Self-efficacy beliefs are task-specific. So a person might have high perceived self-efficacy beliefs in one subject but have less self-efficacy in another field.

Self-efficacy builds over a period of time and with more mastery experience you have, you become better at a task and learn other tasks. Mastery experience is the main source of self-efficacy. All other things are secondary.

In training or coaching situations one can structure the situation in such a way that the trainee experiences a mastery experience. This is the fundamental principle used in training commandos and marines. In simulated and controlled situations they are put in situations where intense learning happens in a very short period of time. That creates a mastery experience. That forever enhances the trainee's perceived self-efficacy belief.

Some years ago Discovery Channel had a 6 part series called Navy Seals Buds Class 234, if you watch that, it is an excellent example of creating a mastery experience in a simulated environment. If you work for a successful start-up at an early stage, you will have a mastery experience.

That is why you will find many successful entrepreneurs become serial entrepreneurs. Many people go through a lifetime without having an intense mastery experience in any field and so have low self-efficacy beliefs.

Mastering a market structure and setup is the same process. The aim is to develop self-leadership where you can fix your own errors.

At some stage, the learners are able to interpret the results of their actions and use those results to develop their own capacity to engage in future actions or tasks. Then the learner becomes the auto learner. 

They are able to participate in tasks on a first-hand basis with little or no assistance from outside influences.


11/11/2022

How to make money in the market

 


  • Understand market structure
  • Develop structural setups
  • Have conviction in your setup
  • Organize to trade your setup
  • Execute
  • Don't be headless chicken asking others

11/05/2022

Develop Swing Trading Edge Shorting

 

Develop Swing Trading Edge Shorting



Saturday 4 PM to 5 PM

Various swing short setups.

How to identify and scan for them

How to enter and exit them.

For members link

11/04/2022

11/03/2022

How to organize your trading

 


How to organize your trading (November and December)

7-week program



For those struggling to put together a well-thought-out setup, process, olc, SA

When Monday at 7.30 AM ( European Members focused)

Tuesday 6 PM USA focused

Meetings will be For the entire Months of November and December

If you are a Stockbee member do not miss the opportunity. 

Do Deep Reflection

 

The key to success in this business is to develop depth on a setup.

First, select your trading timeframe

Then select a market structure that works on that timeframe

Then develop multi-dimensional depth on that setup

Break down each element of that setup

Ask a series of what-if questions

What if I enter early

What if I enter the next day

What if I enter before a breakout.

What if I entered only after volume confirmation

What if I entered only with a news catalyst breakout

What if I entered in the afternoon

What if I put a stop near the support

What if I put a stop at consolidation low

What if I do not put a stop at all and manage by position sizing

What if I exit on a fixed profit

What if I exit on the third day

What if I increase the size

What if I only trade low-priced stocks

What if I trade only high priced

What if I trade only low float

What if I trade only high dollar volume

What will I do if my position goes up 10% the next day

What will I do If 3 trades in a row do not work

When should I move my stop

How much should I move

When does this setup work best

Do I need to use the SA filter with this setup

How can I reduce my stop

How can I increase my per-trade profits

How can I anticipate trades

How can I be consistent with this setup

Why does this setup work

Why only 3 days


Why

How

When

Where

If


Ask and clarify and reclarify.


This is only possible once you narrow down the timeframe and setup


If you can do this then you will need



and all it takes to develop this kind of depth is 4 to 6 weeks of intense deep work

Very few traders will do that.

So if you can do it you will be ahead of everyone

Walk, run, bike, and think. Reflect.

Remember what Nietzsche said: “It is only ideas gained from walking that have any worth

11/01/2022

If you want to make money effortlessly

 

First, find an enduring market structure ( see the Guide section if members for that)

Build setup around the structure

Develop a process loop to trade that setup and run it.


Unless you have set process loop you will flirt from method to method.


Process loops develop procedural memory...

The benefit of running a process loop will be apparent after 4 to six months...

Doing the same thing again and again and again and fine-tuning the process develops expertise...

Throughout the day or after closing run your process loop.

Depending on your setup idea and timeframe of the trading process loop will vary...


Running the same process loop for an extended period of time will make you an expert on a setup...

Stick to few set up and do the same shit every day till you become an expert on that setup...

If the underlying setup idea is thought through and well designed, during the day the task is to run a process loop.

Thinking through a setup idea is one-time effort.

Process loop allows you to make money out of that setup.

When you do the same thing again and again, day in and day out, at some stage it becomes an automated task and the brain spends a very small amount of energy doing it.


It becomes part of you and instinctively you can figure out, whether this is a good setup or not, where to enter and exit, and how much to risk.

Each of the setups you want to trade needs a process loop.

All that one does is run the loop during the day.

The day you realize trading success is about developing procedural memory by developing a process loop, you will be on the path to success.

Trading success is about developing expertise.


When you try and develop the expertise you train your procedural memory. If your efforts at training procedural memory are successful then you will become efficient in trading.

Expertise is narrowly focused.

Specialize in a setup idea


Once a process loop is in place making money is effortless

What will happen post Fed meeting

 

https://www.loom.com/share/f0e76421a673401f843da1bad6257c3f

10/25/2022

Creating a watchlist

 Creating a watchlist is one of the ways in which you can get ready for likely breakouts. To create a watchlist look for stocks that had short-term momentum and are now in consolidation.


ETNB

ISEE

TNK

PAYO

DEN

ADEA

SWAV

TK

SD

SVC

AGTI


Smaller watchlists are better than longer watchlists. 

10/24/2022

Arizona Bootcamp


Topics: Momentum Burst, EP, SA, Psychology

Date: February 23 - 26, 2023

Time: Thu - Sat, 9am to 5pm

     Sun, 9am to 2pm


Members only bootcamp

10/23/2022

Situational Awareness Guide for Members

 More videos will follow next week



Situational Awareness Guide Part 9

Uploaded on Oct 22nd 2022 3:19 PM


...

Situational Awareness Guide Part 8

Uploaded on Oct 22nd 2022 3:17 PM


...

Situational Awareness Guide Part 7

Uploaded on Oct 22nd 2022 3:15 PM


....

Situational Awareness Guide Part 6

Uploaded on Oct 22nd 2022 3:13 PM


...

Situational Awareness Guide Part 5

Uploaded on Oct 22nd 2022 3:11 PM


...

Situational Awareness Guide Part 4

Uploaded on Oct 22nd 2022 3:09 PM


...

Situational Awareness Guide Part 3

Uploaded on Oct 22nd 2022 3:07 PM


..

Situational Awareness Guide Part 2

Uploaded on Oct 22nd 2022 3:05 PM


...

Situational Awareness Guide Part1

Uploaded on Oct 22nd 2022 3:02 

If you are a member check out the new guide section

Guides

...

The definitive guide to learning how to trade momentum burst to the upside.

...

Trend Intensity 65 (TI65) is an indicator of momentum that can tell you the speed and magnitude of a stock trend.

...

Find stocks with momentum after they have recently bottomed.

...

Find stocks that have doubled from the 52-week low.

...

Modified Double Trouble (MDT) is based on Double Trouble and the underlying concept behind IBD's 'Relative Strength Rating'.

...

An anticipation setup requires us to identify when a stock with momentum is in a consolidation or volatility contraction period. We then place a buy order in anticipation of a momentum burst breakout.

...

During a bullish market, parabolic short and weak structure short setups can work very well.

...

Find stocks in a persistent downtrend after a failed bounce attempt.

...

A market breadth-based trade timing tool. It shows how much buying and selling is coming into the market.


Coming Soon