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Two possible ways to find shorts

Posted on 2/24/2010

When the market has negative day I am often asked by readers for short scans. Here are two possible approaches to finding shorts.


Any approach you follow requires some elbow grease.
First Approach 
Logic: Look for short opportunities in high priced stock
Easyscan:
common stocks
Price per share Rank >90
volume 3 day pcf ( minv3.1>=3000)
e.g fti I found using this

Second Approach
Logic: One quarter momentum. When looking for shorts it helps to look at momentum on shorter time frame.
63 day momentum pcf
c/c63
volume 3 day pcf
 minv3.1>=3000
Easyscan
Common Stocks
Price per share>10
63 day momentum rank 1 to 20
Volume 3 day pcf= true





Are you serious about your trading?

If you are serious about your trading and want to build an enduring edge the Stockbee Member site might help you. Members tell me they have tried lot of things before coming to my site and it has offered them the most extensive and detailed methods to swing and position trade.

It is only for those who want to develop their own self sufficient trading method. It is not a stock picking service. It is service for you to build your own scans and trading method to have your own daily pick based on your method.

Be warned it will take you time to learn to trade. Learning to trade is difficult art and unless you are willing to spend months or years to perfect your strategy and also develop your mental edge you are unlikely to succeed in this game. Unless you understand that no site, no service, and no mentoring is going to work.

Why traders come to stockbee?

The member site is one of the most recommended site for learning to trade by other traders and bloggers. You will see no advertising, no hard marketing, no promotions, no free offers, no affiliate marketing, no incentive to other bloggers to promote the site, no constant twits self promoting the site, no free trial  and no tall claims of making you instantly wealthy, and yet the site attracts new  members everyday. Members come from all walks of life and all kinds of trading size and trading styles.

You will see that many trading bloggers have been using my market timing methods, scans , stock ranking lists and chart templates. They have developed their own methods based on my methods. Many paid newsletter site recommend my site to their subscriber for learning about trading and market.

Over the years thousands of traders have been members and those who benefited from the learning talk about the site to others or talk about the methods used and that is how new members learn about the site.





What will I learn in the members site?

The members site will give you in depth understanding to develop your own trading method. The emphasis is on making you self sufficient and confident of your own trading method and style.

As a member you will learn the basics of swing trading, momentum investing, growth investing and risk management.

You will learn about Stockbee Trend Intensity Breakouts method that uses momentum based swing trading to find 3 to 5 day swing trades for 8 to 40% profit.

You will learn about Stockbee Episodic Pivots Breakout method which uses Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) to find stocks that had a game changing earnings and that are likely to rally for 3 months to 12 months.

You will learn about  Stockbee Dollar Breakout method that uses momentum, range expansion and swing trading approach to find 5 to 40 dollar moves in high priced stocks.

You will learn about  Stockbee Lemonade Strategy for 401k which uses market timing and momentum to invest in 401k. You will get weekly update on how I am using the strategy on our 401k to do allocation decision.

You will learn about Stockbee Market Monitor method for market timing using breadth. It allows you to avoid risky periods in market and allows you to identify market turns. It is used for 401k allocation decisions.

You will learn about Stockbee Double Trouble method to find stock with confirmed upside momentum using anchored momentum and that are likely to continue their up move.

You will learn about Stockbee Night Time is Right Time method to find news catalyst based trade ideas for short term day trade and swing trade.

You will learn about Investor's Business Daily’s IBD 200 list and how it can be used to find swing trading candidates for explosive moves.

You will learn about Telechart 2000 and how to use it effectively to scan for swing and position trade ideas and to set up your 401k strategy.

You will learn about Jesse Livermore Range Breakout, Darvas Box setup, and many other member shared methods.

You will learn how to set up your own scans, select right kind of stocks, how to set up stops, when to enter , when to exit, how much to risk, how to track your trades and all other details about trading. You will learn about developing your own methods and not relying on others for trade ideas.

The site has hundreds of videos and trading methods and variation of methods. Members help each other in developing the methods and share actively their research and finding. A collaborative spirit allows you to get input from others on your trading ideas or problems.

The site gives you opportunity to interact with some of the most successful traders and learn from them about their trading methods. It is a vibrant community with members from different background and experience willing to help each other. The emphasis is on continuous learning and up gradation of market knowledge and setup knowledge. The members range from hedge fund employees, financial advisers, active swing traders, investors and new traders.

If you are looking to develop your own trading strategy the membership site might be for you. You have to be willing to put in the effort to build your own method. There are no silver bullets offered on members site. Every method, every scan, every nuance is detailed and all possible help is offered to design your own method.

Do you have a trial?

If you are just looking for trial you are better off trying thousands of other trading sites that offer free trial or one month trial and offer you promise of riches.

It is for those who are ready beyond the trial phase and ready to put serious months or years  of efforts to learn to trade on their own. It is for those who want to learn to find their own fish.

The free blog has all the details about the methods I trade and if you go through the posts highlighted in the sidebar you will learn about them.



How can I become a member?

To sign up go to www.stockbee.biz and follow the sign up process. The site uses Paypal for payment processing.

The little secret to trading success

Posted on 2/18/2010

 If you want to succeed in trading or in life in general you should understand the concept of self efficacy beliefs well.

Albert Bandura first wrote about self efficacy in 1977. His research on self efficacy is considered most influential in developing social learning theories. Anyone who has taken a course in educational psychology would be very familiar with Albert Bandura's work. Basically the research shows that learning is complete when the learners self efficacy belief for the domain being studied change. So learning and teaching strategies should be designed to enhance learners self efficacy beliefs.

Bandura defines perceived self-efficacy as
Perceived self-efficacy is concerned with people's beliefs in their capabilities to exercise control over their own functioning and over events that affect their lives. Beliefs in personal efficacy affect life choices, level of motivation, quality of functioning, resilience to adversity and vulnerability to stress and depression. People's beliefs in their efficacy are developed by four main sources of influence. They include mastery experiences, seeing people similar to oneself manage task demands successfully, social persuasion that one has the capabilities to succeed in given activities, and inferences from somatic and emotional states indicative of personal strengths and vulnerabilities. Ordinary realities are strewn with impediments, adversities, setbacks, frustrations and inequities. People must, therefore, have a robust sense of efficacy to sustain the perseverant effort needed to succeed. Succeeding periods of life present new types of competency demands requiring further development of personal efficacy for successful functioning. The nature and scope of perceived self-efficacy undergo changes throughout the course of the lifespan.



If you look at trading methods used by say Dan Zanger or Mark Minervinin or Charles Kirk or any other trader who has ben around for some years, you will find that there is no great secret behind their methods. The secret is in their perceived self efficacy beliefs.

Each one of them on their own through trial and error figured out a method which works for them. What was the process they used to arrive at that as opposed to several who attempt it ? That is the focus of self efficacy belief theory. What really happens that makes a person proficient in trading. Their belief system changes. They acquire confidence that they can do this on their own. They "figure out " or they experience a mastery experience. 

For example I have told you people many times how I at the beginning of my trading  career I  looked at 40 years worth of data and looked at top 100 price performers in each quarter. That is about 160 quarters of data. Now immersing oneself in such intensive study resulted in me figuring out "how market works" or "why stocks make big moves". After that once I started getting experience of actually trading  and looked at results of my trading ,it further enhanced my confidence. This kind of learnings is implicit learning. It is difficult to explain to others what really happens during such process.

Many of you are followers of Brett Steenbarger's blog on trading psychology and would have read his books. He is prolific writer , but what really is the core message of his book . The one line summary of all his books and blog and articles is that trading expertise can only be gained by implicit learning. This is exactly the same message from the book Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and expert Performance. 

Trading expertise is about implicit learning and within that it is about procedural memory development. If you understand that view then you will approach learning very differently. Expertise is about developing your procedural memory to a extreme proficiency level. To understand this better lets us look at expertise outside of trading. 

Every summer two fairs are held in our town and every year I take my daughter to these fairs. You will see some extreme example of procedural memory skills in fairs. Last year I saw a person who walked on a thin wire 50 feet above ground. Couple of years back I saw a person who rode a bicycle  without sleeping for 5 days (he slept on the bike). He shaved , showered, cooked his meals on the bike  without falling down. These kind of people have trained their procedural memory to extreme level. That is how they can do these kind of extreme acts. It is the same thing with trading. 

Traders train themselves through immersion and extreme practice or study to level where a new procedural memory about say swing trading or a pattern forms. If you study 1000 or 5000 examples of historical EP your implicit memory will develop. Then you see a  situation and you will instantly react in right manner. The name for this process is deliberate practice. Tons of practice is required before implicit memory gets trained. Not only that but you need right practice. Practicing wrong things will train wrong responses.

This is also the reason most working people and average investor has no chance of winning at the wall street casino. They simply don't have enough experience. Plus they don't have time to even attempt to gain that level of expertise. This is also the reason why you should try day trading. High frequency of trading in day trading helps you build up implicit memory faster. A typical hyper active day trader will do in a day more number of trades than I do in a month. So they can learn faster. 

Once you put enough effort in deliberate practice is when your self efficacy beliefs change. When those beliefs change you will have confidence in your own opinion and skills and will not follow the opinion of Gartman, Faber , or any other guru. 

So how does one enhance self efficacy belief? 

How can you enhance perceived self efficacy
Self efficacy is built through four processes:
Mastery experience
Role modelling
verbal persuasion
psychological cues.
These four are in order of importance. Most critical way to build self efficacy is through a mastery experience.

Mastery experience is basically a successful experience of mastering a task. Mastery experiences happen when the learner has reached the point where they understand the content knowledge enough to perform a task on their own or masters the task. It happens if the learner goes in to sufficient depth on material he trying to learn. It happens as a result of immersion in a particular field or task. It happens with plenty of prior exposure to the content.
At some stage the learners are able to interpret the results of their actions and use those results to develop their own capability to engage in future actions or tasks. Then the learner become auto learners. They are able to participate in tasks on a first hand basis with little or no assistance from outside influences. When you experience a intense mastery experience you get a feedback on your own capabilities. Long and sustained efforts are required for mastery experience. 

Self efficacy beliefs are critical not only in academic situation but in any task like sports. Self efficacy beliefs are task specific. So a person might have high perceived self efficacy beliefs in one subject but have less self efficacy in other field.

Self efficacy builds over a period of time and more mastery experience you have, you become better at a task and learning other tasks. 


Mastery experience is the main source of self efficacy. All other things are secondary. In training or coaching situation one can structure the situation in such a way that the trainee experiences a mastery experience. This is the fundamental principle used in training commandos and marines. In simulated and controlled situation they are put in situations where intense learning happens in a very short period of time. That creates a mastery experience. That forever enhances the trainees perceived self efficacy belief. Some years ago Discovery Channel had a 6 part series called Navy Seals Buds Class 234 , if you watch that , it is excellent example of creating mastery experience in a simulated environment. If you work for a successful start up at early stage, you will have a mastery experience. That is why you will find many successful entrepreneurs become serial entrepreneurs. 

Many people go through a lifetime without having a intense mastery experience in any field  and so have low self efficacy belief.  


Vicarious experience or role modelling is the second source of self efficacy. It is when the learner is primarily gaining self- efficacy or confidence in a given task through observation of a role model attaining success at a task The learner does not play an active role in such learning experience. They are learning more through the watching of someone who already understands the task or the objective or is on the same skill level as the observer.

The social persuasion or the verbal persuasion as it is also called is basically  the exposure to the verbal and nonverbal judgments that others provide that can impact the level of self efficacy that a student has.


Physiological cues is the next source of self efficacy beliefs. We judge our own  degree of confidence by the emotional state we experience as we contemplate or engage in an action. So our physiological states affect our  self efficacy beliefs. But such states tend to be temporary.




Are you serious about your trading?

If you are serious about your trading and want to build an enduring edge the Stockbee Member site might help you. Members tell me they have tried lot of things before coming to my site and it has offered them the most extensive and detailed methods to swing and position trade.

It is only for those who want to develop their own self sufficient trading method. It is not a stock picking service. It is service for you to build your own scans and trading method to have your own daily pick based on your method.

Be warned it will take you time to learn to trade. Learning to trade is difficult art and unless you are willing to spend months or years to perfect your strategy and also develop your mental edge you are unlikely to succeed in this game. Unless you understand that no site, no service, and no mentoring is going to work.

Why traders come to stockbee?

The member site is one of the most recommended site for learning to trade by other traders and bloggers. You will see no advertising, no hard marketing, no promotions, no free offers, no affiliate marketing, no incentive to other bloggers to promote the site, no constant twits self promoting the site, no free trial  and no tall claims of making you instantly wealthy, and yet the site attracts new  members everyday. Members come from all walks of life and all kinds of trading size and trading styles.

You will see that many trading bloggers have been using my market timing methods, scans , stock ranking lists and chart templates. They have developed their own methods based on my methods. Many paid newsletter site recommend my site to their subscriber for learning about trading and market.

Over the years thousands of traders have been members and those who benefited from the learning talk about the site to others or talk about the methods used and that is how new members learn about the site.





What will I learn in the members site?

The members site will give you in depth understanding to develop your own trading method. The emphasis is on making you self sufficient and confident of your own trading method and style.

As a member you will learn the basics of swing trading, momentum investing, growth investing and risk management.

You will learn about Stockbee Trend Intensity Breakouts method that uses momentum based swing trading to find 3 to 5 day swing trades for 8 to 40% profit.

You will learn about Stockbee Episodic Pivots Breakout method which uses Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) to find stocks that had a game changing earnings and that are likely to rally for 3 months to 12 months.

You will learn about  Stockbee Dollar Breakout method that uses momentum, range expansion and swing trading approach to find 5 to 40 dollar moves in high priced stocks.

You will learn about  Stockbee Lemonade Strategy for 401k which uses market timing and momentum to invest in 401k. You will get weekly update on how I am using the strategy on our 401k to do allocation decision.

You will learn about Stockbee Market Monitor method for market timing using breadth. It allows you to avoid risky periods in market and allows you to identify market turns. It is used for 401k allocation decisions.

You will learn about Stockbee Double Trouble method to find stock with confirmed upside momentum using anchored momentum and that are likely to continue their up move.

You will learn about Stockbee Night Time is Right Time method to find news catalyst based trade ideas for short term day trade and swing trade.

You will learn about Investor's Business Daily’s IBD 200 list and how it can be used to find swing trading candidates for explosive moves.

You will learn about Telechart 2000 and how to use it effectively to scan for swing and position trade ideas and to set up your 401k strategy.

You will learn about Jesse Livermore Range Breakout, Darvas Box setup, and many other member shared methods.

You will learn how to set up your own scans, select right kind of stocks, how to set up stops, when to enter , when to exit, how much to risk, how to track your trades and all other details about trading. You will learn about developing your own methods and not relying on others for trade ideas.

The site has hundreds of videos and trading methods and variation of methods. Members help each other in developing the methods and share actively their research and finding. A collaborative spirit allows you to get input from others on your trading ideas or problems.

The site gives you opportunity to interact with some of the most successful traders and learn from them about their trading methods. It is a vibrant community with members from different background and experience willing to help each other. The emphasis is on continuous learning and up gradation of market knowledge and setup knowledge. The members range from hedge fund employees, financial advisers, active swing traders, investors and new traders.

If you are looking to develop your own trading strategy the membership site might be for you. You have to be willing to put in the effort to build your own method. There are no silver bullets offered on members site. Every method, every scan, every nuance is detailed and all possible help is offered to design your own method.

Do you have a trial?

If you are just looking for trial you are better off trying thousands of other trading sites that offer free trial or one month trial and offer you promise of riches.

It is for those who are ready beyond the trial phase and ready to put serious months or years  of efforts to learn to trade on their own. It is for those who want to learn to find their own fish.

The free blog has all the details about the methods I trade and if you go through the posts highlighted in the sidebar you will learn about them.



How can I become a member?

To sign up go to www.stockbee.biz and follow the sign up process. The site uses Paypal for payment processing.

KCP: Kenneth Cole Production a earnings breakout

Posted on 2/16/2010

KCP: Kenneth Cole Production

This is the information I had by Thursday night. The stock had guided way higher than the analyst estimate. Stock was going sideways for last one month. Based on that I entered in the morning at the open on Friday.


Kenneth Cole Productions to Beat Earnings Estimates
Thursday, February 11, 2010  4:34:00 PM ET  
View:   
Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Kenneth Cole Productions Inc. (KCP) said it expects fourth quarter earnings of approximately $0.21 per share on revenue of approximately $110.0 million. The company's previous guidance was earnings of $0.04 to $0.08 per share on revenue of $107.0 million to $112.0 million and the current consensus earnings estimate is $0.09 per share on revenue of $110.9 million for the quarter ending December 31, 2009. 


Everyday during the earnings season such opportunities show up and if you are organised for trading such earnings surprize you can find such trades.


Episodic Pivots for Friday close

Symbolsector
rank
eps %sales %floatp/sEpisodic pivotsverdictrisk
%
skil




buyout

swm3858671447bounce after a big fall previous dayno action (NA)
praa901691478beats estimate
Analyst upgrade
NA
snss6830-983394licences technology to other companyNA
gy56350215815No NewsNA
rnn68004699analyst upgradeNA
snwl92005371beats estimateNA
uti166322151857no newsNA
cgnx63-50-13685beats and guides higher
declares cash dividend
NA
stv39-50-194190Announces unaudited results
Analyst upgrade
NA
she9960021489files quarterly reportcurrent
open position
1%
psid16949001198no news
This is very controversial company which makes
implantable id chips for humans.
The sales growth % figure is misleading as it is
just 100000 usd after 900 % growth.
100% speculative stock
NA
nls57-124
3017no newsNA










Related Posts:
What are Episodic Pivots and how to trade them
How to become good at trading Episodic Pivots

How to become good at trading Episodic Pivots

Posted on 2/12/2010

 The way market operates you never know on which day a big Episodic Pivots (EP)stock  will show up which can make your year. The essence of Episodic Pivots is surprise and by definition you cannot anticipate a surprise.

One of my biggest EP trade was on a stock which had a EP on a day where only 20-30  or so stocks were up and everything was crashing post the Sept 11 market swoon. It was a company making bomb detection equipment for airports. It went up over 70 times in next 6-9 month and was finally bought by GE.

So the idea should be to develop a very well thought out daily plan for trading EP. To do so you must divide the day in to parts and have plan/checklist for each:
  1. After market close earnings: This is when companies announce earnings or guide higher. You must have a plan to track both. When doing this find just 1 or 2 good source of information and track it. Do not make it a complex process. I track Briefings earnings page and IBD earnings summary for this. Briefing.com: Earnings Calendar http://bit.ly/g8fu7 (Free resource)
  2. After Market Earnings Guidance: Earnings Whisper email ( free resource)
  3. After market close price gainers: This you can find on WSJ page. http://bit.ly/90SxOz (Free resource)
  4. Before open earnings: Again I look at the Briefings calendar for this.
  5. Before Market Price gainers: I use IB scanner for this. This scanner I open from 7 AM onwards 

These are the only things you need.

Besides that you need conceptual clarity on following things:

EPS: What is is and how it is calculated and manipulated. What drives EPS growth.
Sales: What is sales . What drives sales growth.
Float:What is float. Why is it important.
Growth: What is a growth stock
Turnaround: What is a turnaround stock
Funds ownership: What drives fund buying
Neglect: what is neglect and why it is important
Value: what is a value stock
New Growth: what is a new to market growth
Old growth: What is old (known) growth story
Margin: what is margin and what drives margin
Cyclical growth: what are cyclical industries and what is cyclical growth
Earnings cycle: what is earnings cycle
Earnings momentum: what is earnings momentum

If you can explain these things to 10 year kid then you have conceptual clarity.


What are Episodic Pivots and how to find them




Episodic Pivots for Thursday market close

Symbolsector
rank
eps %sales %floatp/sEpisodic pivots
POT99-71-4129091Agrium issues bullish forecast on fertilisers for next year
AYE


16748buyout
ATVI15258-554378Beats analyst estimate
Declares dividend
Announces 1 billion buyback
CME94-6-46692buys 90% of Dow Jones Index
JASO2938007444Beats analyst estimate and guides higher
CPA60-12663Beats analyst estimate
Analyst upgrade
In top 10 sector
TKLC126486669Beats street views
LF87167-431731Beats analyst estimate and guides higher
ATR1771796554Beats estimate and guides higher
HGR4542113034Beats estimate and guides higher
ABD150-4305417Misses analyst estimates
LPSN42200264181Beats estimate and guides inline
ELOS1574-502387Misses earnings estimates
OPK6625-6310897Announces blood test for Alzheimer 
HNR130113031
Prices a secondary
AZC6267088
Buyout
NGAS7-125-532533Convertible note exchange completed
LYTS91333141929No news
LNUX58-25-65755Post earnings rally
LMLP9410052080Post earnings rally








What are Episodic Pivots

Earnings season offer two types of opportunities. Some stock will make a immediate big move post earnings and can be good short term trades. The second type of stocks are stocks which start their rally on earnings day and continue it for months or sometime 3-4 quarters. If a company announces a big earnings surprize and if it is not currently priced in to the stock it will go up. This phenomenon is called PEAD or Post Earnings Announcement Drift.

Ball and Brown in 1968 first documented the PEAD anomaly. As its name suggests, the PEAD is the tendency of stocks that beat earnings expectations to continue to drift upwards after the announcement, or likewise for stocks that miss earnings to continue to drift downwards. What does the study show. it shows that if you form 10 portfolios of stocks ranked by their earnings surprize then the portfolio of stocks that are in top 10% by earnings surprise outperforms the 9 other portfolio and similarly the bottom decile portfolio under performs the nine other deciles. This is the most researched topic in financial field. Every year at least 50 new papers are published on PEAD and is persistence. 

Earnings are the most important criteria affecting stock prices both in short term as well as in the long term. Investors want to invest in companies that are growing their earnings or are likely to grow their earnings in future. Wall Street is obsessed with earnings and rightfully so. So any earnings related news has a potential to move stocks in either direction. Studies after studies have shown that trading strategies based on post earnings announcement drift  (PEAD) has consistently generated abnormal returns. 

So when a company announces earnings and it is "surprisingly" good or bad it leads to a rally lasting 2 to 3 months. Earnings EP are easiest to understand and act on. The market reaction tells you whether this earnings was "surprise" and "significant". The stock will immediately go up post such announcement and the move will be supported by high volume. 


You can create a  scan captures such breakout. It should basically looks for a out-sized price move on high volume post earnings. One of the simple way to create a scan like this in Telechart is:
((C - C1) >= 5 AND V > 10000 AND C >= 62.50 AND V > V1) OR ((( 100 * (C - C1) / C1) >= 8 AND V > 3000 AND (100 * V / AVGV100) >= 300) AND C > 1)

So a stock appearing in such a  scan has a volume surge and the price surge. We then investigate what caused this price and volume surge or what was "the surprise" that caused such a big move and what is "the nature" of such surprise. Is this information likely to lead to big move. 


For that we look at :
  • Context of the earnings. Is this a first major earnings acceleration.
  • What caused this acceleration. Is it one time or likely to persist.
  • Does this earnings trend represent a structural change in the industry or the position of this company.
  • Is this surprise reflected in current price level.

Market reaction tells you a lot about the likelihood of the future prospect of that stock. If volume is very high, you can assume move has legs. You will see that most earnings breakouts which go on to make really big  (like say 100% plus kind of) moves in next 1 to 2 months post an earnings,  will have huge volume surge, typically of 10 times or more compared to average volume. In many cases the volume on earnings day might be the highest volume in the history of the stock or multi year high volume. 

In earnings breakouts there are two kinds of situations:
  1. Stock with no analyst coverage
  2. Stock with analyst coverage

Stocks with no analyst coverage are typically smaller companies or companies which are out of favor. On such stocks a significant earnings acceleration compared to last year same quarter as well as quarter over quarter is what to look for. I like to look for companies which had earnings acceleration of 100% plus  in such cases. 


Many of the current market leaders were at some stage in their price life cycle such companies. They were neglected small companies which market noticed when they announced big earnings acceleration.  

Stocks with analyst earnings coverage are widely followed stocks on the street. Such companies in most cases are well established companies. They have predictable earnings most of the time and analyst keep a very close eye on such companies and constantly adjust their earnings target. 


But once in a while such companies manage to significantly surprise the market and that results in a earnings breakout. Earnings breakout on companies with significant analyst coverage do not do as well as the first kinds. Genuine analyst surprises are rare and in many cases company pre announce and manage earnings expectations to avoid significant surprise. Established companies also often time secondaries and other  capital raising events to time with such surprises and so often you find the EP on such stocks tend to have a pullback.

Earnings Breakouts and low float
This is an ideal combination. In such situation you can have really explosive move. Float below 25 million is ideal for this. The best moves happen on float below 10 million. Earnings breakouts on companies with 100 million plus float tend to have pullbacks. Earnings breakout on stock with 500 million plus float is something which I not really very enthusiastic about unless they are trading near their historic lows or are in single digits.  

So everyday we monitor earnings before and after the market close and look for trades in them. Earnings is not the only catalyst which can move a stock big, many other catalyst can lead to big moves. Such Episodic Catalyst can help you find many profitable trades. On a daily basis I monitor around 20 types of Episodic Catalyst.

Different Type of Episodic Pivots
Earnings Growth 100% plus
Earnings 40% plus
Earnings Beats by wide margin
Earnings Other
Sales 100% plus but no earnings
IPO Breakout
Retail 
Top Sector
New order or contract /new order rumor
Buyout/buyout rumor/mergers/ tie ups/division sale
New product launch/news
Regulatory Changes
Drug Approval
Drug /marketing Tie Up
Natural disaster/ war/ disease
Shortages
Rate Increase
Media Mention
Analyst upgrade/downgrade
Declares Dividend
Financial Engineering 
Junk of the bottom rally

Related Posts
How To Trade Earnings
How to trade earnings Part2
How to trade earnings Part3
Earnings and Bulkowski
Improving odds in earnings breakout
Earnings Season- Time to be very careful...

Earnings and Dan Zanger
Earning Surprise System for $1495
Trading Earnings Breakouts
Earnings Acceleration- Long Term Impact
Trading Earnings Breakout -Part1
Trading Earnings Breakouts -Part2
Trading Earnings Breakouts -Part3





Are you serious about your trading?

If you are serious about your trading and want to build an enduring edge the Stockbee Member site might help you. Members tell me they have tried lot of things before coming to my site and it has offered them the most extensive and detailed methods to swing and position trade.

It is only for those who want to develop their own self sufficient trading method. It is not a stock picking service. It is service for you to build your own scans and trading method to have your own daily pick based on your method.

Be warned it will take you time to learn to trade. Learning to trade is difficult art and unless you are willing to spend months or years to perfect your strategy and also develop your mental edge you are unlikely to succeed in this game. Unless you understand that no site, no service, and no mentoring is going to work.

Why traders come to stockbee?

The member site is one of the most recommended site for learning to trade by other traders and bloggers. You will see no advertising, no hard marketing, no promotions, no free offers, no affiliate marketing, no incentive to other bloggers to promote the site, no constant twits self promoting the site, no free trial  and no tall claims of making you instantly wealthy, and yet the site attracts new  members everyday. Members come from all walks of life and all kinds of trading size and trading styles.

You will see that many trading bloggers have been using my market timing methods, scans , stock ranking lists and chart templates. They have developed their own methods based on my methods. Many paid newsletter site recommend my site to their subscriber for learning about trading and market.

Over the years thousands of traders have been members and those who benefited from the learning talk about the site to others or talk about the methods used and that is how new members learn about the site.





What will I learn in the members site?

The members site will give you in depth understanding to develop your own trading method. The emphasis is on making you self sufficient and confident of your own trading method and style.

As a member you will learn the basics of swing trading, momentum investing, growth investing and risk management.

You will learn about Stockbee Trend Intensity Breakouts method that uses momentum based swing trading to find 3 to 5 day swing trades for 8 to 40% profit.

You will learn about Stockbee Episodic Pivots Breakout method which uses Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) to find stocks that had a game changing earnings and that are likely to rally for 3 months to 12 months.

You will learn about  Stockbee Dollar Breakout method that uses momentum, range expansion and swing trading approach to find 5 to 40 dollar moves in high priced stocks.

You will learn about  Stockbee Lemonade Strategy for 401k which uses market timing and momentum to invest in 401k. You will get weekly update on how I am using the strategy on our 401k to do allocation decision.

You will learn about Stockbee Market Monitor method for market timing using breadth. It allows you to avoid risky periods in market and allows you to identify market turns. It is used for 401k allocation decisions.

You will learn about Stockbee Double Trouble method to find stock with confirmed upside momentum using anchored momentum and that are likely to continue their up move.

You will learn about Stockbee Night Time is Right Time method to find news catalyst based trade ideas for short term day trade and swing trade.

You will learn about Investor's Business Daily’s IBD 200 list and how it can be used to find swing trading candidates for explosive moves.

You will learn about Telechart 2000 and how to use it effectively to scan for swing and position trade ideas and to set up your 401k strategy.

You will learn about Jesse Livermore Range Breakout, Darvas Box setup, and many other member shared methods.

You will learn how to set up your own scans, select right kind of stocks, how to set up stops, when to enter , when to exit, how much to risk, how to track your trades and all other details about trading. You will learn about developing your own methods and not relying on others for trade ideas.

The site has hundreds of videos and trading methods and variation of methods. Members help each other in developing the methods and share actively their research and finding. A collaborative spirit allows you to get input from others on your trading ideas or problems.

The site gives you opportunity to interact with some of the most successful traders and learn from them about their trading methods. It is a vibrant community with members from different background and experience willing to help each other. The emphasis is on continuous learning and up gradation of market knowledge and setup knowledge. The members range from hedge fund employees, financial advisers, active swing traders, investors and new traders.

If you are looking to develop your own trading strategy the membership site might be for you. You have to be willing to put in the effort to build your own method. There are no silver bullets offered on members site. Every method, every scan, every nuance is detailed and all possible help is offered to design your own method.

Do you have a trial?

If you are just looking for trial you are better off trying thousands of other trading sites that offer free trial or one month trial and offer you promise of riches.

It is for those who are ready beyond the trial phase and ready to put serious months or years  of efforts to learn to trade on their own. It is for those who want to learn to find their own fish.

The free blog has all the details about the methods I trade and if you go through the posts highlighted in the sidebar you will learn about them.



How can I become a member?

To sign up go to www.stockbee.biz and follow the sign up process. The site uses Paypal for payment processing.