10/22/2020

Earnings season means big moves

 




If you are looking for big money in earnings season focus on stocks with big surprise. Look at ALGN today. Earnings came out last night.

Related Post




Stockbee Member Feedback

 

Hi Pradeep,


I am a member of your website and just wanted to say thank you for all your efforts in helping us out. I was out of the market for 2 years before coming back in right after the drop. I took the webinar in April 2020 and got a lot of clarification and understanding of what it takes to become successful in the stock market. I have been involved in the market since 2011 but never achieved consistent success and kept on jumping from one setup to another and sometimes going into the market without even any kind of plan or preparation. AfterI took your webinar, I spent the next 2 weeks going over the video archives and finding all the videos that I thought applied to my situation. Some of the key videos that made a huge difference to the way I approached markets were:

  1. Organize yourself to make money- I had a lot of crap on my TC2000 screens. I got rid of everything, removed all symbols, removed all the various pcfs that I had created and started from scratch. This video really helped me out in understanding the importance of becoming organized.
  2. Develop a daily routine- Prior to this, I had never had a process laid out for trading. But after watching this video, I decided to write everything down to come up with a process that will work for me. I have since kept on refining the process as I find something that doesn't work for me but I know what I need to do every morning, afternoon and evening.
  3. How to profit from 3LYNCH- This is the backbone of my trading now. Once I understood this, I have never looked back as this has helped me in keeping my losses under control. Now, I know that if I get stopped out, the next trade is right around the corner. I did my own deep dive back in April and May to understand what kind of stocks move up and I came up with a pretty similar analysis where all the things you have laid out in the 2LYNCH formula are so important.
  4. Mind clarity videos- All your mind clarity videos are eye opening and keep on putting the correct message in my mind that we need to have clarity in regards to the whole process and understand what steps we are going to take in different situations when in the market.

Thanks to you and Stockbee for helping me get consistent success in the stock market. Very honestly, without your assistance, it could have been a very long road to success. Although my returns at 60% since April 2020 are not as high as where I would like them to be, the way those returns have been achieved is where I have confidence that I can be consistently successful over the long run while keeping the drawdowns in control. My equity curve has grown over this period without much of a drawdown as seen below in the chart. All of this credit solely goes to you only and thanks a tonne for everything.


One other thing to note is that I work full time and just recently watched your video How to become a millionaire and would like to get your input on how I can develop leadership skills in the workplace. If you could guide me to some good sources/webinars, then I can go from there. If you can do a separate zoom meeting on this topic if there are other people interested in it as well, I would be very grateful.

How to find explosive moves using NTRT MTRT

 



Do you want to find setups like these with 15 minutes effort in the Night or in morning (NTRT MTRT)




Note: I use TheFly and Zacks for this. I mainly select stock with MAGNA53 or stock with earnings that have 3 or more analyst price target raises.



Quick links

  1. WSJ post market winners https://goo.gl/9ZYmW7
  2. Earnings whisper calendar https://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar
  3. Zacks Earnings : https://www.zacks.com/earnings/earnings-reports
  4. Earnings Whisper email summary : you need to sign up for this . it is free
  5. https://www.marketbeat.com/ratings/
  6. https://thefly.com/news.php


Checklist


Is it up 4% on 100k volume (if yes)

Does it have 29% plus sales growth

Does it have two Q of 29% plus growth

Does it have 25 million plus sales last year 

Does it have neglect

or

Does it have 100% plus earnings growth or 100% plus sales growth or 100% plus EPS surprise (if yes)

Does it have 25% plus sales growth (if yes) (preferable but I will take even 10% growth)

Does it have neglect


Or 

Does it have 100% plus earnings surprise

Does it have sales growth of 10% plus

Does it have 25 million plus sales last year 

Does it have neglect



MAGNA53


MA massive earnings acceleration or massive sales acceleration or massive earnings surprise.

Massive = greater than 100% plus with EPS growth 100% plus growth on meaningful terms. 5 cents becoming 20 cents not 1 cents becoming 4 cents. 10 million revenue becoming 200 million not 10 million becoming 20 million or 2 or more consecutive quarters of sales growth above 29% plus on 25 million plus annual sales. 

G gap up on earnings day of at least 4 % plus in after hours or pre market with at least 100k volume

N neglect or base of few months to years. low fund ownership

A sales acceleration of 25% plus preferable. Earnings growth without corresponding sales growth is questionable. But in turnaround situation this condition can be ignored. Or 29% plus sales growth 2 Q in a row. 

5 Short interest ratio or days short greater than 5 or 5 days (nice to have but not essential)

3 plus analyst upgrade and price target raised (this can move stocks big even if it does not meet earnings or sales targets) (nice to have)

Entering and exiting NTRT or MTRT trades


Enter after hours if you have high risk tolerance

Enter Pre market again risky as sometime the moves fade

Enter at open with 1 dollar to 40 cents stop

Enter after 15 minutes less risky but you might miss some gains.

Exit on trailing stops. I trail by 1 dollar to 40 cents and then 40 to 20 cents as stocks moves in my favor

Many of these moves fade later after first 1 hour or 2 hours

Some move continue for days, weeks , month , years. 


What is MAGNA53

MA

Massive earnings acceleration

G

Gap up

N

Neglect

A

Sales acceleration

5

short interest 5 days plus

3

3 plus analyst price target hike


What is neglect...

Financial neglect: A long period of time where stock had no growth. Longer the better. And then it suddenly starts growing.

Price Neglect: A long period of time where stock had no meaningful price rally. Years of neglect better.

Volume/liquidity neglect: Long period of time where stock had below average daily volume.

News/attention neglect: no analyst coverage. No major news for months /years.



funds ownership low because no reason to own stocks. Below 20 to 30 funds owning it.

10/20/2020

True nature of market moves

The markets favor certain kinds of setups  certain market phases. At a beginning of market rally from a deeper correction of 20% plus , typically allboats are lifted and  beaten down stocks make big moves.

If you see the image below you will see the stocks up most in first 30 calendar days of this rally. None of them were near 52 week high. Contrary to what you hear all the time that stock that hold up well are first to rally from correction , if you study markets you will see it is not true. 


If you look at same period on S&P 500 components you will see same trend.


Why do certain market myths persist. Because many trades never question assumptions or are in too awe of some famous traders who perpetuate such myths. 

As a result you are building your trading around market structure which may or may not be true. 

If you are looking for making ton of money in the market , the first starting step should be to have correct market structure understanding . Once you understand that you can build your setup around what really works in the market. 

10/11/2020

Anticipation watchlist

Stocks setting up for breakout in next few days

 https://www.tc2000.com/~9nJstb



PCVX

GDEN

TECK

SILK

EBON

ZM

LVGO

ANDE

PLAN

NOMD

CUB

BEAT

TPX

RRR

MCD

ALDX

EVRI

NUAN

CTAS

DELL

CSGP

WDAY

RH

MLHR

CVNA

CRWD

TX

AAN

STAA

UTZ

PTGX

DOCU

MTCH

TSLA

CAL

FBHS

JD

NVDA

STKL

NUS

PINS

BRP

STMP

CELH

VUZI

TRIL

XPO

GPRE

SOHU

RDFN

CRMD

SRNE

SGRY

VTOL

GP

WD

RLGY

ABG

LAD


10/01/2020

Drinking from fire hose

 If you want to take your trading to next level you might want to check out the members site. 

"This is like drinking from fire hose" is the most typical reaction I get from new members. 

Here is a post I made for them 

If you are a beginner or new to this site....


You will not know what hit you

First thing that will happen to you is you will feel overwhelmed. You will have to be a fast learner to quickly grasp things.

There are different levels of market understanding among members and majority of members have been around for 3 plus year so they speak different language and move couple of orbit above novices in terms of their understanding of methods discussed here.

The single most important thing you need to do if you need to internalize the method is to get a software subscription. Unless you have a software to scan the stocks and see the stocks we are discussing here you will not understand much.

I use Telechart for my scanning. That is my recommended software.

You can use any other software you like. Most members here use either Telechart or TD Ameritrade scanner (free)

The second important thing for success in trading is to have right infrastructure in terms of broker, news sources, data sources and so on. I use Interactive Broker (IB) and Fidelity as my main broker. IB is my recommendation for active traders.


My advice to everyone is that keep your trading cost as low as possible. There are excellent free resources like moneycentral, finviz, google finance, yahoo finance etc which are sufficient if you have small account and want to keep cost low.

I might use many tools because I am in a position to spend much more and many of those tools are luxuries and not essentials. I have traded the same methods with free services for many years.

Your starting point should be the Guide section and video archives. It might take you months to go through all material here.

The how and why of a method are most important. Each method has how part and why part to it. You must understand both. Spend significant time understanding both before starting to trade a method.

The market will always be there and opportunities to make money will always be there.

Your objective should be to understand the method and perfect its execution without doing too much damage to your account. In short don't swing to the fences during your learning phase.

Besides learning a method you need to consciously work on your psychological side. The most important thing which will determine your success in trading over next 10 years will be your own self efficacy beliefs.There is extensive discussion of self efficacy on this site and every month I discuss it. Because in my way of thinking that is 99% of the trading is all about. 1% is methods, setups, entries, exits, risk management. Self efficacy beliefs is the real secret to success in trading.


Ask questions. This site is primarily a learning community. There are people with different trading styles, temperament, methods, experience and so on.

Your objective should be to learn a method.


If you understand the method I use to find my trades, you don't need trade alerts.

You will find exactly same trades on your own.

If you want to further enhance your trading skills then you might want to attend the Boot Camp Several members have attended bootcamps. Some have attended them multiple times.


Also get on to the Zoom calls , that is best way to enhance your skills and ask questions. Zoom calls are conducted every day.

Every day there is educational call or actionable calls multiple times a day.

Asking questions on Timeline is best and fastest way to get answers.