What is the second to last column, "T2108"? Thanks!
What is the purpose of the second to last column, "T2108" and how is it calculated. Thanks!
% of stocks above 40 day moving average. Readings below 20 lead to botoms
From the market monitor how do we know if the approaching correction is a major correction (say 10% or more) or a minor one (less than 10%)? Btw thanks a lot for sharing you knowledge through this blog. I have learned a lot and elevated my trading skills to the next level.
If you see major breadth deterioration and series of 700 plus days on 4% plus down then it is likely to develop in to larger correction.
Can you explain what the "5 Day ratio" and the "10 Day ratio" calculates?
It is ratio of 5 days of 4% b/o /5 days 4% b/d same for 10 days using 10 day data.
From where do you gather the data to calculate these? ie, no of stocks below 4% in a week etc. Thanks,
From Teechart data base.
Hello Pradeep,Today's data (row) is not showing up. Is there any way to fix it? I'm not sure if the 10 day ratio has gone below 0.5 or not, though maybe close. Can you please let me know?Thanks,
updated. the ratio is approaching .5
are the large number of red bars on "Number of stocks up 50% + in a month" showing near market top? how much time do you think before the bull rest/pause? weeks/months? thanks.
In next smaller time frame a pullback likely.
now that we are at the other extreme, what are you watching to 'confirm' a bullish bias? more green bars, 5 day or 10 day ratio turning to 1 or do you want to see more selling extreme like maybe 1000+ on 4%+ down day before believing the market will turn around?
Signs of extreme bearishness in Primary indicator. If I see number of stocks up 25% in Q below 300 I will be bullish. At the moment not enough bearishness.
now that most the pundit are saying it is a 'great' time to buy at bargain so we might see a short term bounce don't you think?
is the market back to normal already? no need to see extreme reading on the primary indicators?
Hi, can you tell me what is the calculation for the 5 days of 4% b/o /5 days 4% b/d? What is criteria for numerator, and what is criteria for denominator?Thanks!!Keith
total of 5 days 4% b/o divided by total of 5 days 4% b/d
Thank you. What is the input criteria for the 4% b/o and 4% b/d scans?
Search on the site I have posted my scans for all Market Monitor fields.
in your experience when 25% plus quarter go below 200 indicates a good time to buy the dip?
when you see 5 day ratio and 4% up/down day oscillating between plus and minus, is that an indication that more trouble ahead?
Holy Cow,.....in the years I have been keeping my MM, I have not seen the Primary Ratio this low, in fact I thought it was already extreme, but yesterday was record....means should be a bounce, "Load the Boat," but in what???@7
TQQQ , TNA and beaten down index component stocks
now that we got >1000+ day... do you need to see more >500 days before you are convince the buyers are back?
What is the yellow color significance to 12/24/18 day. It resulted major reversal next day!!!
Half day trading
Another follow through day Friday on MM. It's exciting to see what's been "noted," materialize in MM. While most are bombarded with doom and gloom, the flip materialized just like was made to do. @7
Oh, ok. Noting to do with market state. I was wondering if it was indicating something!
Looks like market is ready to move up from here next week or two.
May be spoke too soon. I see that T2108 column has very high readings in 80'a range. Does this mean it is overbought and due for normal pullback or consolidation? Or can it continue to rally for another week or two as I was saying earlier in spite of this?
Yes. Abnormal strength tend to resolve in consolidation or pullback
is the pullback or consolidation after abnormal strength a good entry point? if b/o above the consolidation point, kind of like your anticipation trading.
T2108 consistently above 85LEVEL and still market continuing higher looks like rare thing happening. I haven't seen these numbers even during 2017 Q4 strong run up or even before. Did anything change in calculating this attribute or market is just too strong thistime? I was thinking market is ripe for some kind of counter trend multiday level pullback, but don'e see it!!!
Excessively positive breadth is not immediately bearish. Unlikely excessively bearish breadth, which gives very good signal on bullish side , excessive positive has no good signalling record.
We seem to be in uncharted territory here, breath numbers off the chart, stay cautious but some very nice set upa taking place. Trade price action not a bias, trade chart set ups, not a market condition, place a tight stop.
Yes, looks like melt up setup next week at least for a week on trade optimism and then probably pullback from march 1st week.Next 5 days should be what I call, UUU_UP phase (unthinkable, unimaginable, unbelievable move up == melt up) Just blindly trade it if it happens and quickly exit as soon as it is done!
Don't predict market direction, just trade set ups with tight stops as market is at extremes. Look for set ups.@7
Hmm, Market looks like changed it's mind. Multi-day pullback coming, finally!
Again, don't predict any direction, trade your charts and set ups,..tight stops if you aren't comfortable with market direction. You must trade the chart set ups, and watch price action. @7
PLEASE FIX COLOR OF 5 DAY RATIO COLUMN. SHOULD BE GREEN IN ABOVE 2.0
THANK YOU FOR FIXING 5 DAY RATIO COLOR. I THINK IT WOULD BE AND SMOOTHER AND MORE USEFUL FOR TRADING IF ABOVE 1.5 IS GREEN INSTEAD OF ABOVE 2.0
thanks for your suggestion. I do not really use it for trading unless it is at extremes
Looks like market is ready for multi-day move up next week.
Looks like market ready for multi-day move down for few days next week.
Hmm, looks like already bottomed and ready to run up again!
Looks like melt up setup for next couple of weeks to form some kind of top and then pull back start from 04/20.It is hard to trade setups like this melt ups from overbought condition. Anybody has any tips, just in case this turns outto be true.
Hmm, slowly grinding up for melt up next week or ready to start multi-day pullback next week? Next week will be interesting.
Read the trend of the indexes, are they up, down, or sideways,....find your set up,...either anticipate or wait for open,...no predictions, that will get you in trouble and create a bias.
Yup, that is what works!!! I was just trying to come up with most likely next Multiday Level moves with anticipation for it, not a prediction, and trying the setups within that anticipated moves. From 03/11 until now I was mostly trying to LONG thesetups and most of the times they are working out. Not sure how long this will continue!!!
And as I trade futures only they make decent profits in the given just few days time when right, usually 3-5 days and exit and look for next setup. More work on daily basis but also decent profits within short period of time!
I thought we are done here. But looks like another multiday up swing for next 1-2 weeks to new all time highs and then well deserved multi-week pullback after that.
Oh ok, That was a trap. We were really done that day on may 4th for next 4 weeks!!. Now is the time for starting upside in next 1-2 weeks for a period of minimum 4-6 weeks. Let us see how this forecast plays out.
that was a good start!
Good follow through too. May be next 2-3 weeks upside continue.
from the market monitor assessment as of now, does it look like it is ready to rally to next all time high from here or does it look like more downside/crash continue which started on 08/01? Just academic question, I know we have to deal with whatever it is next week in real time as appropriate. Just curious how to interpret the market monitor as of now for high probability move here?
Pradip ji,Which monitor column do you watch for possible sign of a bottom or top. I backtested your data and you seemed to find the bottom on December 26 using t2108 decreasing and changing back on. How do you get a feeling of a possible correction or pullback with the data in the monitor. I know picking top or bottom is difficult but any input would be beneficial for my research. Thank you.
Extremely bearish breadth= bullish and start of a bounce or bottom.Short term extremely bullish breadth= pullback.For tops there are no reliable indicators as it is gradual process.I look for extremes in breadth on any time frames to reduce or add risks. Rest of the time breadth is not much useful
Hi Pradeep, does it look like we continue rally for next 1-2 weeks based on the breadth you see in the MMI or do you see any warning signs?
Yes rally in to year end.
I am interested in joining your membership site. Where do I sign up?
Hi Pradeep, 02/20 and 02/21 were huge down days in stock market, still MMI breadth doesn't reflect it. Does it mean it is still bullish or does it mean just starting after 5 months solid rally?
more selling might come in
Looks like bottom is in for a week of bounce, at least.
Why only 200 stocks up 4%+ in March 2? Most of the index are up 4%+. Is it because of the second condition, V>V1?
Looks like MMI is indicating very oversold condition. Does the MMI now indicates possible bounce next week or more selloff next week?
Short term bounce
Pradeep, does it look like the Stock up 25%+ in a quarter will get down below the 200 level? Are you putting money in your retirement account if that happens?
Not yet extreme , but once it gets there yes will put some money to work.
Pradeep, what's the risk/reward difference between buying Q at the extreme vs when it goes back to green from red? As we saw this week, it doesn't always reach <200 before a bottom on the D, M and other secondary indicators.
you can miss few % point . Waiting for green is confirmation but can be late . dollar cost averaging down may be one way to handle.
Market is extremely volatile. Based on 25% down in quarter it was extreme on 3/12, however market is continuing to drop over last several days, is this a good time to dollar cost average in Pradeep?
yes. I have been doing that
HI Pradeep, based on the breadth in MMI, does it look like bottom is in or few more weeks of correction continue? I remember you marked 12/24/18 as the BOTTOM DAY which was the bottom for next 14 months!!!
What is happening currently has no model. So even though I feel major selling is behind us it might take some time for market to settle down.
Is there any reason for the data not being updated? This is one of my favorite sites to use to help understand where the market is at. thanks
it is updated daily. By mistake it had 18th date instead of 20th April, that has been fixed now
Hi Pradeep,Thank you for the great resource.What happens when the 10 day ratio is positive but the 25% change in a quarter is positive.(or vice versa) I mean what to do when the signals conflict?Which is the best indicator in market monitor in terms of backtesting of these two?Simon
25% change in a quarter
When 25% change in a quarter from from positive to negative, are there any other clues you use from market monitor to decide if it likely to be a continuing trend or just a brief flip (for example, the 21 and 22 April this year, the indicator went red for two days then changed to green again.)
It is total picture not just one thing I look at.
What are the other most important points to look at in order of priority?
t2108 rising or falling . Daily trends . 34/13 trends. number of stocks up 50% and 25% in month
Thanks very much Pradeep!
Hi Pradeep,In calculating T2108 is the requirement dollar volume above 250000 USD or 100000 shares traded? Do you have any records of T2108 prior to 2013?Thanks, Simon
T2108 is worden indicator in tc2000. I do not calculate it. In tc2000 there is data for it for many years
Was just wondering if I could access T2108 in 2011 and earlier as of now, because I know there is a daily bar limit on TC2000.Thanks, Simon
Get tc2007 it is free for tc2000 suvs. It has data from when worden started teacking it
Looks like market is at critical decision point fo continue upside for 9th week or reverse here. Very interesting setup. Let us see what mkt decides this time. Pradeep was pretty accurate about 03/23 bottom and hopefully he is accurate this time about a possible 10% correction here!
looks likely to pullback
Looks like it needed 1 extra day in 10th week to suck everybody in and then start the expected pullback now!
Hi Pradeep, the huge drop Thu changed anything to the strong rally in progress? Likely to continue 2 more weeks or done?
Good call! Last 3 weeks it was range bound. Now, Is it ready for rally up again or pullback down or range continue?
So last week was up and now next week down? Looks like either multi week consolidation in progress or 4 week top process done and now ready for sell off? Next week will be interesting. If neither then another week up ???
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