3/28/2008

IBD 200 and other scans

For those looking for easier solution to generating the IBD 200 list and to run scans on D database, IBD offers Custom Screen Wizard. Using that you can create a daily scan for IBD 200. You can also expand the universe to 300 stocks instead of 200.

IBD 300 and volume surge scan
If you are subscriber to IBD Custom Screen Wizard you can run this scan daily and intraday to find opportunities. It will give you only 15 to 20 stocks to look at daily. Plus it being dynamic as against weekly frequency of IBD 200, it will give you faster access to changes in list. By making value on Composite rating to 94 instead of 96 you get 300 stocks approximately as against 200. The volume surge value you can make 50, if you like.

Earnings Per Share (EPS) Rating Greater than or equal to: 60
SmartSelect® Composite Rating Greater than or equal to: 94
Current 50-Day Average Volume(1000) Greater than or equal to: 50
% Increase in Volume (Current Day) vs. 50-Day Average Volume Greater than or equal to: 100

In addition to this scan you can create following scans to find opportunities in the market using the Custom Screen Wizard
Fund Ownership up 50%
Extreme Growth Screen
Top 100 Group Breakout Screen
Bull Market Top Opportunities Screen
70/50 Screen
The top opportunities screen
Sales Acceleration Screen
Earnings Acceleration Screen
Possible Additions to IBD 100 Screen


Are you serious about your trading?

If you are serious about your trading and want to build an enduring edge the Stockbee Member site might help you. Members tell me they have tried lot of things before coming to my site and it has offered them the most extensive and detailed methods to swing and position trade.

It is only for those who want to develop their own self sufficient trading method. It is not a stock picking service. It is service for you to build your own scans and trading method to have your own daily pick based on your method.

Be warned it will take you time to learn to trade. Learning to trade is difficult art and unless you are willing to spend months or years to perfect your strategy and also develop your mental edge you are unlikely to succeed in this game. Unless you understand that no site, no service, and no mentoring is going to work.

Why traders come to stockbee?

The member site is one of the most recommended site for learning to trade by other traders and bloggers. You will see no advertising, no hard marketing, no promotions, no free offers, no affiliate marketing, no incentive to other bloggers to promote the site, no constant twits self promoting the site, no free trial  and no tall claims of making you instantly wealthy, and yet the site attracts new  members everyday. Members come from all walks of life and all kinds of trading size and trading styles.

You will see that many trading bloggers have been using my market timing methods, scans , stock ranking lists and chart templates. They have developed their own methods based on my methods. Many paid newsletter site recommend my site to their subscriber for learning about trading and market.

Over the years thousands of traders have been members and those who benefitted from the learning talk about the site to others or talk about the methods used and that is how new members learn about the site.





What will I learn in the members site?

The members site will give you in depth understanding to develop your own trading method. The emphasis is on making you self sufficient and confident of your own trading method and style.

As a member you will learn the basics of swing trading, momentum investing, growth investing and risk management.

You will learn about Stockbee Trend Intensity Breakouts method that uses momentum based swing trading to find 3 to 5 day swing trades for 8 to 40% profit.

You will learn about Stockbee Episodic Pivots Breakout method which uses Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) to find stocks that had a game changing earnings and that are likely to rally for 3 months to 12 months.

You will learn about  Stockbee Dollar Breakout method that uses momentum, range expansion and swing trading approach to find 5 to 40 dollar moves in high priced stocks.

You will learn about  Stockbee Lemonade Strategy for 401k which uses market timing and momentum to invest in 401k. You will get weekly update on how I am using the strategy on our 401k to do allocation decision.

You will learn about Stockbee Market Monitor method for market timing using breadth. It allows you to avoid risky periods in market and allows you to identify market turns. It is used for 401k allocation decisions.

You will learn about Stockbee Double Trouble method to find stock with confirmed upside momentum using anchored momentum and that are likely to continue their up move.

You will learn about Stockbee Night Time is Right Time method to find news catalyst based trade ideas for short term day trade and swing trade.

You will learn about Investor's Business Daily’s IBD 200 list and how it can be used to find swing trading candidates for explosive moves.

You will learn about Telechart 2000 and how to use it effectively to scan for swing and position trade ideas and to set up your 401k strategy.

You will learn about Jesse Livermore Range Breakout, Darvas Box setup, and many other member shared methods.

You will learn how to setup your own scans, select right kind of stocks, how to setup stops, when to enter , when to exit, how much to risk, how to track your trades and all other details about trading. You will learn about developing your own methods and not relying on others for trade ideas.

The site has hundreds of videos and trading methods and variation of methods. Members help each other in developing the methods and share actively their research and finding. A collaborative spirit allows you to get input from others on your trading ideas or problems.

The site gives you opportunity to interact with some of the most successful traders and learn from them about their trading methods. It is a vibrant community with members from different background and experience willing to help each other. The emphasis is on continuous learning and up gradation of market knowledge and setup knowledge. The members range from hedge fund employees, financial advisers, active swing traders, investors and new traders.

If you are looking to develop your own trading strategy the membership site might be for you. You have to be willing to put in the effort to build your own method. There are no silver bullets offered on members site. Every method, every scan, every nuance is detailed and all possible help is offered to design your own method.

Do you have a trial?

If you are just looking for trial you are better off trying thousands of other trading site that offer free trail or one month trial and offer you promise of riches.

It is for those who are ready beyond the trial phase and ready to put serious months or years  of efforts to learn to trade on their own. It is for those who want to learn to find their own fish.

The free blog has all the details about the methods I trade and if you go through the posts highlighted in the sidebar you will learn about them.



How can I become a member?

To sign up go to www.stockbee.biz and follow the sign up process. The site uses Paypal for payment processing.

3/27/2008

Risk management is critical

Comment posted by Chad on 3/25/2008 1:06:00 AM EST
Article: Getting ready for the upcoming earnings season
Hi Pradeep, Thanks for sharing all your wonderful insights. I'm very glad to have found you.

Please tell me, you say on earnings plays you put the stop at the 3 day low or at gap bottom if it's gap up. If the stock gaps up 100% or 200% on earnings day, that means your stop would be at 50% - 66% below your buy price. That seems a lot to me. In those cases would you set a higher stop? How would you handle that?

Thanks!

Chad

This kind of question is often the most common question asked . The most critical thing to understand if you want to be profitable in the trading game and survive it in long run is risk management.

The most important section in The Trading Guide is below. If you understand this and internalise this one page it would go long way in managing risk.

How Much to Risk

How much should you risk on a trade? To manage risk, you should not risk more than 1% of your total equity on a single trade more.




Market Roundup

Market Monitor: Bearish

  • We are back in bearish territory.
  • Only energy sector is working currently.
  • It has been months since a good counter trend rally developed in this bearish phase.
  • While it is frustrating you have to give benefit of doubt to Market Monitor green signal. Catching a good counter trend rally can pay handsomely. A few weeks rally in September 2007 to November 2007 was one of the best in 4 weeks account was up 40%. Again a narrow set of stocks lead a big advantage during that period.
  • While the first quarter has not been good, this earning season will still offer opportunities. more

3/26/2008

Energy sector leads in top 10 sectors

Market Monitor: Bullish

Market has managed to put together a good rally in last couple of days and breadth is showing signs of improvement. So there are opportunities in the top 10 sector. There has ben considerable sector rotation and the top ten sector has now transport and home builder sectors joining the long favorites like energy, metals, and agriculture.

Energy sector is where currently bulk of the breakouts are concentrated and the opportunities are.

Top 10 sector stocks with 4% plus moves

AEM,Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AG,Agco Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AGT,Apollo Gold Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AGU,Agrium Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BEXP,Brigham Exploration Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BVN,Compania De Minas Buena (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
COIN,Converted Organics Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CRK,Comstock Resources Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DNR,Denbury Resources Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EAC,Encore Acquisition (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FST,Forest Oil Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GDP,Goodrich Petrol Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GFA,Gafisa SA ADR (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GG,Goldcorp Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GMXR,Gmx Resources Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GOLD,Randgold Resources Ltd Ads 1:2 (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GSI,General Steel Holdings Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GSX,Gasco Energy (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HK,Petrohawk Energy Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
KGC,Kinross Gold Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
KOG,Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
KSU,Kansas City Southern (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
KWK,Quicksilver Resources (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MFN,Minefinders Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MGH,Minco Gold Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MTH,Meritage Homes Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NG,Novagold Resources Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NGAS,NGAS Resources Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NOEC,New Oriental Energy Chemical Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NSU,Nevsun Resources Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PAAS,Pan Amer Silver Cp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PETD,Petroleum Development Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PLLL,Parallel Petroleum Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PQ,Petroquest Energy Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SLW,Silver Wheaton Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SM,Saint Mary Land & Explor (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SUTR,Sutor Technology Group (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TMR,Meridian Resource Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TS,Tenaris Sa (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
WTI,W & T Offshore (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
X,US Steel Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
XCO,EXCO Resources Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
XEC,Cimarex Energy Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)

There are lot of opportunities in this for short term traders. If you expand this universe to top 20 sectors you would find lot more short term opportunities.

3/25/2008

Quarter end effect

Market Monitor: Bearish

  • As expected the market continues its rally however volume was low.
  • Some of the IBD kind of stocks have started breaking out. However in many cases convincing volume is not there.
  • Month and quarter end dynamics should keep rally going for sometime.
  • Soon we will be in to pre announcements and earnings season, so more EP opportunities of right kind will present themselves.

3/24/2008

Large caps are in the play

Market Monitor: Bearish

  • We are at a stage where a reflex rally is distinct possibility.
  • On the MM four things indicate this: # of stocks up 50% plus, # of stocks down 50% plus, number of stocks up 100% plus , and 500 plus up days on 4% in last three days.
  • The spread between the 4% plus breakouts is around 500 and if market puts together a one week rally, we might be in green in a weeks time.
  • However on individual stocks the breakouts are concentrated in large cap stocks. Number of DJ components had EP in last 2-3 days and most have followed through on them.
  • The IBD kind of stocks and small caps stocks which make the explosive moves are not yet in the play. more

3/21/2008

A filter to reduce number of stocks in IBD 200 and DT

It is spring cleaning time and so during cleaning , I found some old notes on some of the filters I used or researched in the past to reduce or anticipate breakouts on IBD 200 and Double Trouble. This filter can also be used on stocks up 25% plus in 65 days. That is how I have used it in past with great success. This filter I used to run in night and then calculate buy points and volume triggers for next day entries. It is a very good way to reduce the IBD 200 universe to 5-10 best opportunities to watch for next day entry. Incorporating this simple filter and doing some pre planning can vastly improve your efficiency while trading these two things. The following example will illustrate it more

A hedge fund and the modern day version of bank robbery

The Telegraph out of London has this fascinating story about how a hedge fund spread rumors to aid in short selling. Pretty interesting stuff. Scandals are always been part of the street.

A hedge fund based in London set up a "dirty-tricks unit" to manipulate share prices and get illicit information on companies in an attempt to make millions on the stock market, an insider has revealed.
Private detectives were allegedly employed to hack into executives' emails and telephone records.

Front companies were set up to allow the hedge fund traders to pose as independent researchers or journalists.

Negative information on companies was then distributed to leading investment banks in the hope that rumours would spread and some share prices would fall.

The hedge fund, which cannot be named for legal reasons, stood to make millions from "short-selling" the shares as they fell in value.

The document alleges that:

- Employees of the hedge fund ordered an American-based private detective to hack into the corporate email systems of two firms in which the hedge fund had an interest.


- A bogus firm — with a phoney internet address — was established to allow employees to pose as independent researchers and approach company executives to garner information on their firms' future financial prospects. The firm was also used to gain access to industry conferences.

- A false website — with a bogus address — was also registered to allow hedge fund traders to pose as journalists. The offices of American politicians were approached by people claiming to be journalists to obtain information about potential new laws banning internet gambling that would hit British firms.

- Jurors and their families in a sensitive legal case into whether a firm had exclusive patent rights in which the hedge fund had invested were "tapped up". Money was allegedly paid to jurors' families for information about jury-room deliberations.

- Hedge fund staff gathered "sensitive" negative information on firms in which they had an interest in the share price falling. This information was distributed to leading investment banks whose experts were encouraged to take a dim view of the prospects of the company's shares. A German "media consultant" was also used to disseminate information.

- A safe containing large amounts of cash was installed in the hedge fund's office. Money was paid to "sources" providing valuable inside information. On one occasion, an anonymous informant was paid $50,000.

The hedge fund at the centre of the allegations has offices in London's West End and traders spent their staff Christmas party on a luxury cruise.

It was set up by former senior executives from a blue-chip investment firm. However, from 2005, the "dirty-tricks unit" was staffed by former corporate investigators and investigative journalists hired from newspapers.

3/20/2008

Rotation out of commodities

Commodities got hard hit yesterday. Top 10 sectors till now were dominated by these sectors. Several stocks are breaking down from these sector. Where will the money coming out of commodities go. If you are tracking sector regularly, you will know. New sector themes are starting to emerge.


Stocks from top 10 ranked sector witnessing heavy selling today:

ABX,Barrick Gold Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)

AEM,Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)

AGU,Agrium Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AKS,Ak Steel Holding Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
APA,Apache Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
APC,Anadarko Petroleum Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ARD,Arena Resources Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ATPG,Atp Oil & Gas (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ATW,Atwood Oceanics Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AUY,Yamana Gold Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BBL,BHP Billiton Plc Ads (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BHP,BHP Billiton Limited ADS (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BPT,BP Prudhoe Bay Royal Trust (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BVN,Compania De Minas Buena (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CCJ,Cameco Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CF,CF Industries Holdings Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CHK,Chesapeake Energy Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CLF,Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CNH,Cnh Global Nv (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
COG,Cabot Oil & Gas Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CRZO,Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CXG,CNX Gas Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CXO,Concho Resources Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DD,E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DO,Diamond Offshre Drilling (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DPTR,Delta Petroleum Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DROOY,DRD Gold Ltd Adr (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DVN,Devon Energy Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EAC,Encore Acquisition (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EOG,Eog Resources Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ESE,Esco Technologies Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FCX,Freeport Mcmoran C&G B (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GDP,Goodrich Petrol Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GG,Goldcorp Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GGB,Gerdau Sa Ads (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GOLD,Randgold Resources Ltd Ads 1:2 (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HERO,Hercules Offshore Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HL,Hecla Mining Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HMY,Harmony Gold Mining Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
KGC,Kinross Gold Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
KWK,Quicksilver Resources (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LIHR,Lihir Gold` Limited ADS (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ME,Mariner Energy Inc When Issued (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MFN,Minefinders Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MMR,Mcmoran Exploration Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MOS,Mosaic Company (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MT,Arcelor Mittal (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NE,Noble Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NEM,Newmont Mining Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NFX,Newfield Exploration (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NSC,Norfolk Southern Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
OXY,Occidental Petro Cp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PAAS,Pan Amer Silver Cp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PCU,Southern Copper Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PETD,Petroleum Development Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PLLL,Parallel Petroleum Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
POT,Potash Cp Saskatchewan (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PQ,Petroquest Energy Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PTEN,Patterson-Uti Energy Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PXD,Pioneer Natural Rescs Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PXP,Plains Exploration & Prod (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RDC,Rowan Companies Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RGLD,Royal Gold Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RIG,Transocean Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RIO,Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce ADS (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RTP,Rio Tinto Plc Adr (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SGY,Stone Energy Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SID,Companhia Siderurgica Nacional S.A. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SLW,Silver Wheaton Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SM,Saint Mary Land & Explor (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SMG,Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SWN,Southwestern Energy Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TCK,Teck Cominco Limited (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TOC,Thomson Corp (the) (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TRA,Terra Industries Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TS,Tenaris Sa (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TXCO,Txco Resources Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
UPL,Ultra Petroleum Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
X,US Steel Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
XTO,Xto Energy Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)