7/05/2007

How to find multi year leaders

Sometime flipping a concept gives you a new profitable method. Couple of days ago I talked about "How to find out of favor stocks". While designing that scan for a readers request, I was instantly more excited by the reverse of that scan for bullish possibilities by just flipping the scan. The scan is ideal for short term and medium term swing trading. You can even use it to generate list of stocks to short, if they break down.

So here is very simple screen to find multi year leaders. Again it uses Telechart.

  • This scan uses the Easyscan functionality of Telechart.
  • Set up a Easyscan with Watchlist=All Stocks. Then add following parameters.
  • Price Growth Rate 5 years= Rank 75 to max
  • Price Growth Rate 3 years= Rank 75 to max
  • Price Growth Rate 2 years= Rank 75 to max
  • Price Growth Rate 1 years= Rank 75 to max
  • Price Percent Change 26-week= Rank 75 to max
  • This will give you around 250 stocks to work with. They are the real multi year leaders in the market currently.
  • Using a scan like this will generate entry signals for short term swing trading: (100 * (C1 - C22) / C22) < 10 AND ( 100 * (C - C1) / C1) >= 4 AND V >= 1000 AND V > V1. Alternatively you can use your chart reading skills on the narrow group of 200 stocks. Or you can design a pullback entry.
Now taking the basic idea you can create variations of this scan to find leaders in only 3/2/1/half year frame. The stocks generated by this scan are blessed by the market goddess and are in favor. So any breakout has very high probability of follow through in next shorter time frame.

As of now if you run this scan it gives following 246 stocks:

AAPL,Apple Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AAUK,Anglo Amer Plc Adr (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ABB,Abb Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ABV,Ambev (comp De Bebidas Adr) (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ACH,Aluminum Corp China (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ADS,Alliance Data (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AGU,Agrium Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AH,Armor Holdings Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AIRM,Air Methods Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AKS,Ak Steel Holding Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AMG,Affiliated Managers Grp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AMK,American Tech Ceramics (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AMOV,America Movil Sa De Dv (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AMX,America Movil S A B De C V (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ANAD,Anadigics Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
APLX,Applix Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AQNT,Aquantive Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ARCAF,Arcadis Nv (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ARGN,Amerigon Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ARRS,Arris Group Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ASR,Grupo Aeroport Del Surst (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ASY,Elecsys Corporation (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ATI,Allegheny Technologies (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ATRO,Astronics Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ATW,Atwood Oceanics Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AWX,Avalon Holdings Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AXE,Anixter International (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AYI,Acuity Brands (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AZZ,Azz Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BAM,Brookfield Asset Management Inc (currently Brascan Corp) (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BAP,Credicorp Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BAY,Bayer Aktien (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BDC,Belden Cdt Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BEAV,Be Aerospace Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BGC,General Cable Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BID,Sotheby's Holding Cl A (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BTJ,Bolt Technology Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CCK,Crown Holdings Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CENX,Century Aluminum Company (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CETV,Central European Media (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CG,Carolina Group (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CGV,Cgg Veritas (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CHDX,Chindex International Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CHL,China Mobile Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CIG,Companhia Energetica Mines (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CKSW,Clicksoftware Technlgies (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CLB,Core Laboratories N.V. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CLF,Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CLG,Cumberland Resources Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CMC,Commercial Metals Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CMI,Cummins Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CNQR,Concur Technologies Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
COG,Cabot Oil & Gas Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CP,Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CPY,Cpi Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CRDN,Ceradyne Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CRH,CRH Plc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CRZO,Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CTCH,Commtouch Software Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CTV,Commscope Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CVNS,Covansys Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CXW,Corrections Corp Of Amer (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CYTR,Cytrx Corporation (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DAVE,Famous Dave's Of America (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DECK,Deckers Outdoor Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DWSN,Dawson Geophysical Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DXPE,Dxp Enterprises Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DYN,Dynegy Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EBIX,Ebix Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EGN,Energen Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ELP,Companhia Paranaense De (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EMITF,Elbit Medical Imaging (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ENI,Enersis Sa Ads (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EOC,Empresa Nac Elec Chile (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EQIX,Equinix Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ESC,Emeritus Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ESI,Itt Educational Services (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EVST,Everlast Worldwide Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EWA,iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund ETF (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EWW,iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund ETF (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EWZ,iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETF (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FCX,Freeport Mcmoran C&G B (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FDS,Factset Research Systems (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FRPT,Force Protection Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FTEK,Fuel Tech Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GAP,Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GCOM,Globecomm Systems Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GEL,Genesis Energy (L.P.) (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GEO,Geo Group (The) (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GES,Guess? Incorporated (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GF,Germany New Fund Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GGB,Gerdau Sa Ads (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GIGM,Gigamedia Limited (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GIL,Gildan Activewear Inc A (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GLBL,Global Industries Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GMCR,Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GME,Gamestop Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GMRK,Gulfmark Offshore Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GRA,W.R. Grace & Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GRIL,Grill Concepts Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GRMN,Garmin Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GSOL,Global Sources Ltd. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GT,Goodyear Tire&Rubber Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GVA,Granite Construction Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HAN,Hanson P (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HMSY,Hms Holdings Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HOC,Holly Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HRSH,Hirsch International Corp Class A (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HUBG,Hub Group Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HURC,Hurco Companies Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
IBN,Icici Bank Ltd Ads (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ICI,Imperial Chemical Industries PLC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ICOC,Ico Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
IFSIA,Interface Inc Cl A (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ILF,iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund ETF (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
IPS,Ipsco Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ISRL,Isramco Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ITU,Banco Itau S A Adr (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
JADE,Lj Internat Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
JLL,Jones Lang Lasalle Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
JOYG,Joy Global Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
KHD,Khd Humboldt Wedag Intl Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
KMGB,Kmg Chemicals Inc. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
KTII,K-Tron Internat Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LAQ,Latin America Equity Fd New (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LDSH,Ladish Co Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LFL,Lan Chile Sa (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LPHI,Life Partners Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LTR,Loews Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LTS,Ladenburg Thalmann Finl (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LWAY,Lifeway Foods Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MCF,Contango Oil & Gas (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MDM,Mountain Province Diamonds Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MDR,Mcdermott Internat Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MFRI,Mfri Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MFW,M&F Worldwide Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MGM,MGM MIRAGE Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MICC,Millicom Intl Cellular Sa (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MITSY,Mitsui & Co Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MKTAY,Makita Corp Spons Adr (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MLAB,Mesa Laboratories Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MLM,Martin Marietta Material (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MON,Monsanto Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MOV,Movado Group Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MRO,Marathon Oil Group (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MT,Arcelor Mittal (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MTN,Vail Resorts Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MTOX,Medtox Scientific (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MTRX,Matrix Service Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MTW,Manitowoc Co Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MW,Men's Wearhouse Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MX,Metso Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MXE,Mexico Equity & Income (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NBL,Noble Energy Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NETC,Net Servicos De Comunicado Ads (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NGA,North American Galvanizing & Coatings Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NHY,Norsk Hydro As Adr (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NTL,Nortel Invesora Sa Ads (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
OEH,Orient-Express Hotels (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ONNN,On Semiconductor Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
OYOG,Oyo Geospace Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PAE,Peace Arch Entmt Grp Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PCLN,Priceline.com Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PCP,Precision Castparts Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PCR,Perini Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PCU,Southern Copper Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PDA,Perdigao Sa Ads (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PENN,Penn National Gaming Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PKX,Posco (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PMFG,Peerless Manufacturing (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
POT,Potash Cp Saskatchewan (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PRFT,Perficient Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PRXI,Premier Exhibitions Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PTNR,Partner Communications (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PWR,Quanta Services Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RATE,Bankrate Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RCCC,Rural Cellular Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RCI,Rogers Commun B Non-Votg (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RDNT,RadNet Inc. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RICK,Rick's Caberet Intl (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RIMM,Research In Motion Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RIO,Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RIV,Riviera Holdings Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RL,Polo Ralph Lauren Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RRC,Range Resources Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RS,Reliance Steel & Alum Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RTP,Rio Tinto Plc Adr (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RYI,Ryerson Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SA,Seabridge Gold Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SBS,Companhia De Saneamento B (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SCI,Service Corp Internat (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SDA,Sadia S.A. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SEB,Seaboard Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SF,Stifel Financial Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SGR,Shaw Group Inc (The) (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SHPGY,Shire Pharma Grp Plc Ads (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SID,Companhia Siderurgica Nacional S.A. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SIF,Sifco Industries Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SILC,Silicom Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SJR,Shaw Communications Cl B (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SLGN,Silgan Holdings Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SLP,Simulations Plus Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SNP,China Petro & Chem Ads (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SPIL,Siliconware Precision Industries Company Ltd ADS (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SPTN,Spartan Stores Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
STLD,Steel Dynamics Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SUNH,Sun Healthcare Group Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SVT,Servotronics Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SVVS,SAVVIS Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SWHC,Smith & Wesson Hldg Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SYNL,Synalloy Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SYUT,Synutra International (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TATTF,Tat Technol Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TEN,Tenneco Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TEO,Telecom Argentina Sa (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TEX,Terex Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TGB,Taseko Mines Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TISI,Team Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TNH,Terra Nitrogen Co L.P. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TPL,Texas Pacific Land Trust (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TRA,Terra Industries Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TRN,Trinity Industries Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TRT,Trio-Tech Internat (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TSO,Tesoro Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TTEC,Teletech Holdings Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TTES,T-3 Energy Services Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TWI,Titan Internat Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TWIN,Twin Disc Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TXI,Texas Industries Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
UBB,Unibanco Uniao De Bancos (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
UGP,Ultrapar Participacoes (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ULTI,Ultimate Software Gp Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
USM,U.S. Cellular Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VCLK,Valueclick Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VDSI,Vasco Data Security Intl (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VHI,Valhi Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VIP,Vimpel Communication Ads (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VIVO,Meridian Bioscience Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VMC,Vulcan Materials Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VOLV,Ab Volvo Adr (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
WBD,Wimm Bill Dann Foods Ojsc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
WEBX,Webex Communications (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
WFR,Memc Electronic Material (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
WGOV,Woodward Governor Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
X,US Steel Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ZOLT,Zoltek Companies Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)


After some more testing over this weekend , I am going to add this method to my expanding portfolio of methods. This is simple, pure momentum based, easy to trade method.


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    12 comments:

    Bill said...

    Lots of overlap between that system and one that looks for earnings acceleration. I wonder why that is?

    Pradeep Bonde said...

    Which earnings acceleration system you are talking about?

    hector said...

    Hi Pradeep, thats a nice scan, a lot of winnners there...im trying to do a variation using Telechart of this particular scan but a shorter frame scan...which one makes more sense "Price as % of 90,52,30 low" or "Price % Change 5 days, 1 month,26 weeks". The reason for me of the scan is I use a variation of your indicators on a shorter time frame, i like to trade within a intermediate time frame, but i trade
    another trade within the trade to pick up upswing movement(so called Bull Flags) and put money in my pocket..example, TNH uptrending since 9/14/06 and everytime it solds off and upswings, i add to my position.

    christmasfern said...

    Ive used a scan like that, i think its particularly helpful when the market has been weak for a period of time like in the June-July '06 period. Some old leaders die when the market corrects but most dont and those times of weakness are a good opportunity to buy fresh breakouts.

    One stock i contine to hold was bought based on that scan. CHAP. That is the time i usually pick up a few stocks to hold for an extended period of time and where i make most of my money.

    Pradeep Bonde said...

    Hector
    Using too short a time frame is not very helpful. It often leads to reversal.
    You can try
    (C * 100 / C5) + (C * 100 / C25) + (C * 100 / C40)
    This will give you what is moving up on short (two month time frame)
    Set the rank values to top 5% or 2% on the above scan.

    Bill said...

    Just look back at stocks that have had earnings Q/Q growth greater than Y/Y or trailing 3Yr growth, and you would get a lot of stocks that wound up on that list.

    Pradeep Bonde said...

    That is because in the long term stock prices are highly correlated to their earnings power. In short run stocks go up for variety of reason, but in long run only earning power drives a stock. If you see a stock doing well for five years, it will invariably have earnings momentum.

    hector said...

    Thanks, i will run some tests later on the settings and see what comes up..also I use Vectorvest because i like the ranking and so many data points like earnings that i can use and consider it a quicker IBD and Value Line, i was wondering what was your personal opinion about it

    Pradeep Bonde said...

    I am very well aware of Vector Vest. Their method is slight variation on earnings and price momentum with valuation component added to it.

    Bill said...

    Yeah, I know. I was being sarcastic with the "wonder why?" comment.

    Same deal with "value" and the low PE ratio in total, or in relation to historic PE ratios for that stock or industry. The price is below the earnings trend, the price will revert to the trend ...

    camysore said...

    Pradeep, can u give me some pointers on setting this screen up on MSN Deluxe Screen. Appreciate it. - Thnx

    Pradeep Bonde said...

    It is not possible to do this in MSN Deluxe