A variation of the earnings trade is also an useful addition to your trading arsenal. There are a handful of companies which have at any given time very high sales growth. They may or may not have earnings. This happens in biotech, pharma and high technology field. In these kind of companies the sales acceleration acts as a catalyst, kicking off multi month rallies post earnings.
So in addition to 100% plus earnings , I track companies which had a 100% plus sales/revenue growth and recent quarter sales/revenue are above 10 million. Now some of these might have good earnings growth, but the hyper sales growth alone acts as a catalyst in such cases. Now if these companies had no rally prior to the earnings season and show sudden revenue acceleration, you will notice they immediately jump. Again the rallies in such companies last for few quarters or years.
The biggest winners in a year typically come from such hyper growth companies.
Related posts :
How to trade earnings
Earnings Season- Time to be very careful...
Earnings and Dan Zanger
Earning Surprise System for $1495
Trading Earnings Breakouts
Earnings Acceleration- Long Term Impact
Trading Earnings Breakout -Part1
Trading Earnings Breakouts -Part2
Trading Earnings Breakouts -Part3
3/31/2007
3/30/2007
How to trade earnings
The earning season is fast approaching. Earning season offers some of the best opportunities for profitable trading. PEAD or post earnings announcement drift is a well studied and proven market anomaly. Stocks which have significant earnings surprise or acceleration, breakout post earnings and rally for next 3-6 months as market reacts to this new earnings power. Sometimes these rallies last years.
So if you are looking for a profitable strategy to trade, you might be interested in putting together a working plan for next earning season.
- Earnings Data Sources: You need a reliable source for earnings. I use the Investors Business Daily and Wall Street Journal for this. Besides these two there are many other sources of earnings. When choosing a source I look at how they adjust earnings for one time events. Overall IBD does a better job on this.
- Three types of earnings announcements: Earnings announcements are made after close, before close and in some rare set of companies during market hours. I concentrate on the earnings announced after market close. They appear in the IBD daily edition under 'Company Earnings Report' section.
- What to look for in earnings: To narrow the set of companies to track and trade for this strategy, based on my prior experience, I only track companies whose earnings are up 100% or more quarter over quarter and the earnings should be at least 5 cents. Sales/revenue should be up 5% or more. Doubling of earnings is significant. Few companies meet that criteria. So I put all the stock meeting this criteria in a list. Now what one is looking for is earnings acceleration. IBD will have those stocks with up arrow to indicate earnings acceleration. Besides that I look for price action on that stock by looking at how much they are up in last 65 days or so. I am looking for stocks which have not rallied in anticipation of earnings. Even better is stock which has no analyst coverage and is neglected. Stocks with less than 100% plus earnings also breakout, but to prioritize, I only focus on above 100.
- Breakout: An earnings surprise on stock which has not rallied significantly will lead to breakout next day. Most of the time I will enter in the morning and add to position later if the volume climbs above average volume. Many times such stocks will gap up 5 to 300% on day of earnings and still make further moves of 20 to several hundred percent in next 3 to 12 months. I look to capture such moves. Most of these breakouts will have minor pullback at best and just go up for 2 to 6 weeks before having a reaction. So if you don't enter on the earnings day you will be just a observer.
- Stops: I put stops 1 dollar below the gap low if it is gap up or at 2 days low and trail with stop. In these trades I move my stops quickly once it makes 20% move. Objective in such method is to capture several 20% moves.
- Watchlist: I maintain a watch list of stocks which respond with a high breakout on earnings day of 4% plus for next one year. These stocks often have several more breakouts during the year and make multi month or multi year moves. All major movers like NTRI, HANS, TIE, AAPL, ICE, GROW and several others had series of 100% plus earnings growth during their entire rally period. The oil stocks which had a stellar rallies for last couple of years or the steel stocks also had several triple digit earnings.
- How many opportunities: Even in bear markets you will find opportunities using this strategy. If you set up your system properly, you should find 20-25 opportunities like this in every earnings season. When market expectations are low, or market has had several months of correction, you will find 50 to 100 opportunities in an earning season.
Season of profitable opportunities starts next week. You will be pleasantly surprised by the results you get. Carpe diem.
Related posts :
How to trade earnings Part2
How to trade earnings Part3
Earnings and Bulkowski
Improving odds in earnings breakout
Related posts from last earnings season:
Earnings Season- Time to be very careful...
Earnings and Dan Zanger
Earning Surprise System for $1495
Trading Earnings Breakouts
Earnings Acceleration- Long Term Impact
Trading Earnings Breakout -Part1
Trading Earnings Breakouts -Part2
Trading Earnings Breakouts -Part3
Are you serious about your trading?
If you are serious about your trading and want to build an enduring edge the Stockbee Member site might help you. Members tell me they have tried lot of things before coming to my site and it has offered them the most extensive and detailed methods to swing and position trade.
It is only for those who want to develop their own self sufficient trading method. It is not a stock picking service. It is service for you to build your own scans and trading method to have your own daily pick based on your method.
Be warned it will take you time to learn to trade. Learning to trade is difficult art and unless you are willing to spend months or years to perfect your strategy and also develop your mental edge you are unlikely to succeed in this game. Unless you understand that no site, no service, and no mentoring is going to work.
Why traders come to stockbee?
The member site is one of the most recommended site for learning to trade by other traders and bloggers. You will see no advertising, no hard marketing, no promotions, no free offers, no affiliate marketing, no incentive to other bloggers to promote the site, no constant twits self promoting the site, no free trial and no tall claims of making you instantly wealthy, and yet the site attracts new members everyday. Members come from all walks of life and all kinds of trading size and trading styles.
You will see that many trading bloggers have been using my market timing methods, scans , stock ranking lists and chart templates. They have developed their own methods based on my methods. Many paid newsletter site recommend my site to their subscriber for learning about trading and market.
Over the years thousands of traders have been members and those who benefited from the learning talk about the site to others or talk about the methods used and that is how new members learn about the site.
What will I learn in the members site?
The members site will give you in depth understanding to develop your own trading method. The emphasis is on making you self sufficient and confident of your own trading method and style.
As a member you will learn the basics of swing trading, momentum investing, growth investing and risk management.
You will learn about Stockbee Trend Intensity Breakouts method that uses momentum based swing trading to find 3 to 5 day swing trades for 8 to 40% profit.
You will learn about Stockbee Episodic Pivots Breakout method which uses Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) to find stocks that had a game changing earnings and that are likely to rally for 3 months to 12 months.
You will learn about Stockbee Dollar Breakout method that uses momentum, range expansion and swing trading approach to find 5 to 40 dollar moves in high priced stocks.
You will learn about Stockbee Lemonade Strategy for 401k which uses market timing and momentum to invest in 401k. You will get weekly update on how I am using the strategy on our 401k to do allocation decision.
You will learn about Stockbee Market Monitor method for market timing using breadth. It allows you to avoid risky periods in market and allows you to identify market turns. It is used for 401k allocation decisions.
You will learn about Stockbee Double Trouble method to find stock with confirmed upside momentum using anchored momentum and that are likely to continue their up move.
You will learn about Stockbee Night Time is Right Time method to find news catalyst based trade ideas for short term day trade and swing trade.
You will learn about Investor's Business Daily’s IBD 200 list and how it can be used to find swing trading candidates for explosive moves.
You will learn about Telechart 2000 and how to use it effectively to scan for swing and position trade ideas and to set up your 401k strategy.
You will learn about Jesse Livermore Range Breakout, Darvas Box setup, and many other member shared methods.
You will learn how to set up your own scans, select right kind of stocks, how to set up stops, when to enter , when to exit, how much to risk, how to track your trades and all other details about trading. You will learn about developing your own methods and not relying on others for trade ideas.
The site has hundreds of videos and trading methods and variation of methods. Members help each other in developing the methods and share actively their research and finding. A collaborative spirit allows you to get input from others on your trading ideas or problems.
The site gives you opportunity to interact with some of the most successful traders and learn from them about their trading methods. It is a vibrant community with members from different background and experience willing to help each other. The emphasis is on continuous learning and up gradation of market knowledge and setup knowledge. The members range from hedge fund employees, financial advisers, active swing traders, investors and new traders.
If you are looking to develop your own trading strategy the membership site might be for you. You have to be willing to put in the effort to build your own method. There are no silver bullets offered on members site. Every method, every scan, every nuance is detailed and all possible help is offered to design your own method.
Do you have a trial?
If you are just looking for trial you are better off trying thousands of other trading site that offer free trail or one month trial and offer you promise of riches.
It is for those who are ready beyond the trial phase and ready to put serious months or years of efforts to learn to trade on their own. It is for those who want to learn to find their own fish.
The free blog has all the details about the methods I trade and if you go through the posts highlighted in the sidebar you will learn about them.
How can I become a member?
To sign up go to www.stockbee.biz and follow the sign up process. The site uses Paypal for payment processing.
POPULAR POSTS
Are you serious about your trading?
If you are serious about your trading and want to build an enduring edge the Stockbee Member site might help you. Members tell me they have tried lot of things before coming to my site and it has offered them the most extensive and detailed methods to swing and position trade.
It is only for those who want to develop their own self sufficient trading method. It is not a stock picking service. It is service for you to build your own scans and trading method to have your own daily pick based on your method.
Be warned it will take you time to learn to trade. Learning to trade is difficult art and unless you are willing to spend months or years to perfect your strategy and also develop your mental edge you are unlikely to succeed in this game. Unless you understand that no site, no service, and no mentoring is going to work.
Why traders come to stockbee?
The member site is one of the most recommended site for learning to trade by other traders and bloggers. You will see no advertising, no hard marketing, no promotions, no free offers, no affiliate marketing, no incentive to other bloggers to promote the site, no constant twits self promoting the site, no free trial and no tall claims of making you instantly wealthy, and yet the site attracts new members everyday. Members come from all walks of life and all kinds of trading size and trading styles.
You will see that many trading bloggers have been using my market timing methods, scans , stock ranking lists and chart templates. They have developed their own methods based on my methods. Many paid newsletter site recommend my site to their subscriber for learning about trading and market.
Over the years thousands of traders have been members and those who benefited from the learning talk about the site to others or talk about the methods used and that is how new members learn about the site.
What will I learn in the members site?
The members site will give you in depth understanding to develop your own trading method. The emphasis is on making you self sufficient and confident of your own trading method and style.
As a member you will learn the basics of swing trading, momentum investing, growth investing and risk management.
You will learn about Stockbee Trend Intensity Breakouts method that uses momentum based swing trading to find 3 to 5 day swing trades for 8 to 40% profit.
You will learn about Stockbee Episodic Pivots Breakout method which uses Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) to find stocks that had a game changing earnings and that are likely to rally for 3 months to 12 months.
You will learn about Stockbee Dollar Breakout method that uses momentum, range expansion and swing trading approach to find 5 to 40 dollar moves in high priced stocks.
You will learn about Stockbee Lemonade Strategy for 401k which uses market timing and momentum to invest in 401k. You will get weekly update on how I am using the strategy on our 401k to do allocation decision.
You will learn about Stockbee Market Monitor method for market timing using breadth. It allows you to avoid risky periods in market and allows you to identify market turns. It is used for 401k allocation decisions.
You will learn about Stockbee Double Trouble method to find stock with confirmed upside momentum using anchored momentum and that are likely to continue their up move.
You will learn about Stockbee Night Time is Right Time method to find news catalyst based trade ideas for short term day trade and swing trade.
You will learn about Investor's Business Daily’s IBD 200 list and how it can be used to find swing trading candidates for explosive moves.
You will learn about Telechart 2000 and how to use it effectively to scan for swing and position trade ideas and to set up your 401k strategy.
You will learn about Jesse Livermore Range Breakout, Darvas Box setup, and many other member shared methods.
You will learn how to set up your own scans, select right kind of stocks, how to set up stops, when to enter , when to exit, how much to risk, how to track your trades and all other details about trading. You will learn about developing your own methods and not relying on others for trade ideas.
The site has hundreds of videos and trading methods and variation of methods. Members help each other in developing the methods and share actively their research and finding. A collaborative spirit allows you to get input from others on your trading ideas or problems.
The site gives you opportunity to interact with some of the most successful traders and learn from them about their trading methods. It is a vibrant community with members from different background and experience willing to help each other. The emphasis is on continuous learning and up gradation of market knowledge and setup knowledge. The members range from hedge fund employees, financial advisers, active swing traders, investors and new traders.
If you are looking to develop your own trading strategy the membership site might be for you. You have to be willing to put in the effort to build your own method. There are no silver bullets offered on members site. Every method, every scan, every nuance is detailed and all possible help is offered to design your own method.
Do you have a trial?
If you are just looking for trial you are better off trying thousands of other trading site that offer free trail or one month trial and offer you promise of riches.
It is for those who are ready beyond the trial phase and ready to put serious months or years of efforts to learn to trade on their own. It is for those who want to learn to find their own fish.
The free blog has all the details about the methods I trade and if you go through the posts highlighted in the sidebar you will learn about them.
How can I become a member?
To sign up go to www.stockbee.biz and follow the sign up process. The site uses Paypal for payment processing.
POPULAR POSTS
Shorts battle a tricky market
It is currently a difficult environment to trade in. The best long entries were couple of weeks ago when the market looked most vulnerable and the bears were dancing on the street. That was an ideal panic buy set up for quick profit. Now putting on long is tricky.
Even more tricky thing is shorts. Yesterday provided a good lesson in why you need to be very patient to put your shorts. The last two days action had shorts excited. The hypothesis is that this move is fated for failure. That is my hypothesis also, but timing is the issue. So overeager Index shorts were a very good fodder for the last 45 minutes rally. Part of the rally was quarter end effect and large part of it was again panicky shorts getting squeezed. The game always remains the same on the street.
Market Monitor
Total 4% plus bullish breakouts=99
Total 4% plus bearish breakouts=54
65 day bullish/bearish ratio= 727/319
Stocks up 50% or more in a month=7
Stocks up 25% or more in a month=53
Number of stocks with 100% plus move =320
Number of stocks up 200% or more = 64
4% plus signals for 100plus universe=8
4% plus signals for 200plus universe=3
Select stocks which had Episodic Pivot moves today. Unusual price and volume move often kick start a long duration rallies. Identifying the catalyst behind such one day move can help determine the likelihood of the move continuing. Short term momentum often translates in to long term momentum.
Episodic Pivots
GOL,Gollinhas Aereas Inteligentes (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
IPS,Ipsco Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PBR,Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras ADS (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PBR.A,Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras ADS Class A (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PKX,Posco (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
Select stocks which had 100% plus move in last 260 days from the low and which are up more than 4% on higher volume. Today's minimum volume is above 100000. To understand how to trade this see the post "How to find a stock which makes a 1500% plus move in a year".
Force Protection Inc, is a Iraq war play and stock is up 886% from 260 days low. I have had two very profitable trades in this stock in last 6 month and now in to third trade on this one. SPAR, Spartan Motors is a related company in this category and is up 238% from 260 days low.
BPA,Biosante Pharmaceuticals (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CCC,Calgon Carbon Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FRPT,Force Protection Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GMO,Idaho General Mines Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HMB,Homebanc Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TGX,Theragenics Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TSL,Trina Solar Ltd. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
WBD,Wimm Bill Dann Foods Ojsc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
Even more tricky thing is shorts. Yesterday provided a good lesson in why you need to be very patient to put your shorts. The last two days action had shorts excited. The hypothesis is that this move is fated for failure. That is my hypothesis also, but timing is the issue. So overeager Index shorts were a very good fodder for the last 45 minutes rally. Part of the rally was quarter end effect and large part of it was again panicky shorts getting squeezed. The game always remains the same on the street.
Market Monitor
Total 4% plus bullish breakouts=99
Total 4% plus bearish breakouts=54
65 day bullish/bearish ratio= 727/319
Stocks up 50% or more in a month=7
Stocks up 25% or more in a month=53
Number of stocks with 100% plus move =320
Number of stocks up 200% or more = 64
4% plus signals for 100plus universe=8
4% plus signals for 200plus universe=3
Select stocks which had Episodic Pivot moves today. Unusual price and volume move often kick start a long duration rallies. Identifying the catalyst behind such one day move can help determine the likelihood of the move continuing. Short term momentum often translates in to long term momentum.
Episodic Pivots
GOL,Gollinhas Aereas Inteligentes (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
IPS,Ipsco Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PBR,Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras ADS (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PBR.A,Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras ADS Class A (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PKX,Posco (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
Select stocks which had 100% plus move in last 260 days from the low and which are up more than 4% on higher volume. Today's minimum volume is above 100000. To understand how to trade this see the post "How to find a stock which makes a 1500% plus move in a year".
Force Protection Inc, is a Iraq war play and stock is up 886% from 260 days low. I have had two very profitable trades in this stock in last 6 month and now in to third trade on this one. SPAR, Spartan Motors is a related company in this category and is up 238% from 260 days low.
BPA,Biosante Pharmaceuticals (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CCC,Calgon Carbon Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FRPT,Force Protection Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GMO,Idaho General Mines Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HMB,Homebanc Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TGX,Theragenics Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TSL,Trina Solar Ltd. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
WBD,Wimm Bill Dann Foods Ojsc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
3/29/2007
Strange volume spikes.......
In next couple of days you will see strange volume and price spikes related to Index changes.
Standard & Poor's Announces Changes to U.S. Indices
NEW YORK, March 27 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Standard & Poor's will
make the following changes to the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, S&P SmallCap
600, and S&P REIT Composite indices:
-- S&P MidCap 400 constituent Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) will
replace Univision Communications Inc. (NYSE: UVN) in the S&P 500, S&P
SmallCap 600 constituent Phillips-Van Heusen Corp. (NYSE: PVH) will
replace Abercrombie & Fitch in the S&P MidCap 400, and Blackbaud Inc.
(Nasdaq: BLKB) will replace Phillips-Van Heusen in the S&P SmallCap
600 after the close of trading on Wednesday, March 28. Univision is
being acquired by an investor group including Madison Dearborn
Partners, Providence Equity Partners, Texas Pacific Group, Thomas H.
Lee Partners and Saban Capital Group in a deal expected to close on or
about that date, pending final approvals.
-- S&P SmallCap 600 constituent NVR Inc. (Amex: NVR) will replace New
Plan Excel Realty Trust Inc. (NYSE: NXL) in the S&P MidCap 400, Arris
Group Inc. (Nasdaq: ARRS) will replace NVR Inc. in the S&P SmallCap
600, and One Liberty Properties Inc. (NYSE: OLP) will replace New Plan
Excel Realty Trust in the S&P REIT Composite after the close of
trading on Wednesday, April 4. New Plan Excel Realty Trust is being
acquired by S&P Global 1200 constituent Centro Properties Group in a
deal expected to close on or about that date, pending final approvals.
-- Spartan Stores Inc. (Nasdaq: SPTN) will replace Carreker Corp.
(Nasdaq: CANI) in the S&P SmallCap 600 after the close of trading on
Friday, March 30. Carreker is being acquired by S&P MidCap 400
constituent Checkfree Corp. (Nasdaq: CKFR) in a deal expected to close
on or about that date, pending final approvals.
-- Education Realty Trust Inc. (NYSE: EDR) will replace The Mills Corp.
(NYSE: MLS) in the S&P REIT Composite after the close of trading on
Wednesday, March 28. Mills is being acquired by S&P 500 and S&P REIT
Composite constituent Simon Property Group Inc. (NYSE: SPG) in a deal
expected to close on or about that date, pending final approvals.
Standard & Poor's will monitor these transactions, and post any
relevant updates on its website: http://www.standardandpoors.com.
Abercrombie & Fitch operates as a specialty retailer in the United
States. Headquartered in New Albany, OH, the company will be added to the
S&P 500 GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) Apparel Retail
Sub-Industry index.
Phillips-Van Heusen engages in the design and marketing of various
apparel products. Headquartered in New York, NY, the company will be added
to the S&P MidCap 400 GICS Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods Sub-Industry
index.
Blackbaud provides software and related services for nonprofit
organizations. Headquartered in Charleston, SC, the company will be added
to the S&P SmallCap 600 GICS Application Software Sub-Industry index.
NVR Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the United States. Headquartered
in Reston, VA, the company will be added to the S&P MidCap 400 GICS
Homebuilding Sub-Industry index.
Arris Group operates as a communications technology company.
Headquartered in Suwanee, GA, the company will be added to the S&P SmallCap
600 GICS Communications Equipment Sub-Industry index.
One Liberty Properties is a REIT that engages in the acquisition,
ownership, and management of commercial real estate properties in the
United States. Headquartered in Great Neck, NY, the company will be added
to the S&P REIT Composite Diversified REITs sub-industry.
Spartan Stores engages in the distribution and retailing of groceries.
Headquartered in Grand Rapids, MI, the company will be added to the S&P
SmallCap 600 GICS Food Distributors Sub-Industry index.
Education Realty Trust is a REIT that engages in the acquisition,
ownership, leasing, and management of student housing communities near
university campuses in the United States. Headquartered in Memphis, TN, the
company will be added to the S&P REIT Composite Residential REITs
sub-industry.
Following is a summary of the changes:
S&P 500 INDEX - March 28, 2007
COMPANY GICS ECONOMIC GICS SUB-INDUSTRY
SECTOR
ADDED Abercrombie & Consumer Apparel Retail
Fitch Discretionary
DELETED Univision Consumer Broadcasting & Cable TV
Discretionary
S&P MIDCAP 400 INDEX - March 28, 2007
COMPANY GICS ECONOMIC GICS SUB-INDUSTRY
SECTOR
ADDED Phillips-Van Consumer Apparel, Accessories &
Heusen Discretionary Luxury Goods
DELETED Abercrombie & Consumer Apparel Retail
Fitch Discretionary
S&P MIDCAP 400 INDEX - April 4, 2007
COMPANY GICS ECONOMIC GICS SUB-INDUSTRY
SECTOR
ADDED NVR Inc. Consumer Homebuilding
Discretionary
DELETED New Plan Excel Financials Retail REITs
Realty Trust
S&P SMALLCAP 600 INDEX - March 28, 2007
COMPANY GICS ECONOMIC GICS SUB-INDUSTRY
SECTOR
ADDED Blackbaud Information Application Software
Technology
DELETED Phillips-Van Consumer Apparel, Accessories &
Heusen Discretionary Luxury Goods
S&P SMALLCAP 600 INDEX - March 30, 2007
COMPANY GICS ECONOMIC GICS SUB-INDUSTRY
SECTOR
ADDED Spartan Stores Consumer Staples Food Distributors
DELETED Carreker Information Data Processing &
Technology Outsourced Services
S&P SMALLCAP 600 INDEX - April 4, 2007
COMPANY GICS ECONOMIC GICS SUB-INDUSTRY
SECTOR
ADDED Arris Group Information Communications
Technology Equipment
DELETED NVR Inc. Consumer Homebuilding
Discretionary
S&P REIT COMPOSITE INDEX - March 28, 2007
COMPANY GICS ECONOMIC GICS SUB-INDUSTRY
SECTOR
ADDED Education Financials Residential REITs
Realty Trust
DELETED Mills Financials Retail REITs
S&P REIT COMPOSITE INDEX - April 4, 2007
COMPANY GICS ECONOMIC SECTOR GICS SUB-INDUSTRY
ADDED One Liberty Financials Diversified REITs
Properties
DELETED New Plan Excel Financials Retail REITs
Realty Trust
Standard & Poor's Announces Changes to U.S. Indices
NEW YORK, March 27 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Standard & Poor's will
make the following changes to the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, S&P SmallCap
600, and S&P REIT Composite indices:
-- S&P MidCap 400 constituent Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) will
replace Univision Communications Inc. (NYSE: UVN) in the S&P 500, S&P
SmallCap 600 constituent Phillips-Van Heusen Corp. (NYSE: PVH) will
replace Abercrombie & Fitch in the S&P MidCap 400, and Blackbaud Inc.
(Nasdaq: BLKB) will replace Phillips-Van Heusen in the S&P SmallCap
600 after the close of trading on Wednesday, March 28. Univision is
being acquired by an investor group including Madison Dearborn
Partners, Providence Equity Partners, Texas Pacific Group, Thomas H.
Lee Partners and Saban Capital Group in a deal expected to close on or
about that date, pending final approvals.
-- S&P SmallCap 600 constituent NVR Inc. (Amex: NVR) will replace New
Plan Excel Realty Trust Inc. (NYSE: NXL) in the S&P MidCap 400, Arris
Group Inc. (Nasdaq: ARRS) will replace NVR Inc. in the S&P SmallCap
600, and One Liberty Properties Inc. (NYSE: OLP) will replace New Plan
Excel Realty Trust in the S&P REIT Composite after the close of
trading on Wednesday, April 4. New Plan Excel Realty Trust is being
acquired by S&P Global 1200 constituent Centro Properties Group in a
deal expected to close on or about that date, pending final approvals.
-- Spartan Stores Inc. (Nasdaq: SPTN) will replace Carreker Corp.
(Nasdaq: CANI) in the S&P SmallCap 600 after the close of trading on
Friday, March 30. Carreker is being acquired by S&P MidCap 400
constituent Checkfree Corp. (Nasdaq: CKFR) in a deal expected to close
on or about that date, pending final approvals.
-- Education Realty Trust Inc. (NYSE: EDR) will replace The Mills Corp.
(NYSE: MLS) in the S&P REIT Composite after the close of trading on
Wednesday, March 28. Mills is being acquired by S&P 500 and S&P REIT
Composite constituent Simon Property Group Inc. (NYSE: SPG) in a deal
expected to close on or about that date, pending final approvals.
Standard & Poor's will monitor these transactions, and post any
relevant updates on its website: http://www.standardandpoors.com.
Abercrombie & Fitch operates as a specialty retailer in the United
States. Headquartered in New Albany, OH, the company will be added to the
S&P 500 GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) Apparel Retail
Sub-Industry index.
Phillips-Van Heusen engages in the design and marketing of various
apparel products. Headquartered in New York, NY, the company will be added
to the S&P MidCap 400 GICS Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods Sub-Industry
index.
Blackbaud provides software and related services for nonprofit
organizations. Headquartered in Charleston, SC, the company will be added
to the S&P SmallCap 600 GICS Application Software Sub-Industry index.
NVR Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the United States. Headquartered
in Reston, VA, the company will be added to the S&P MidCap 400 GICS
Homebuilding Sub-Industry index.
Arris Group operates as a communications technology company.
Headquartered in Suwanee, GA, the company will be added to the S&P SmallCap
600 GICS Communications Equipment Sub-Industry index.
One Liberty Properties is a REIT that engages in the acquisition,
ownership, and management of commercial real estate properties in the
United States. Headquartered in Great Neck, NY, the company will be added
to the S&P REIT Composite Diversified REITs sub-industry.
Spartan Stores engages in the distribution and retailing of groceries.
Headquartered in Grand Rapids, MI, the company will be added to the S&P
SmallCap 600 GICS Food Distributors Sub-Industry index.
Education Realty Trust is a REIT that engages in the acquisition,
ownership, leasing, and management of student housing communities near
university campuses in the United States. Headquartered in Memphis, TN, the
company will be added to the S&P REIT Composite Residential REITs
sub-industry.
Following is a summary of the changes:
S&P 500 INDEX - March 28, 2007
COMPANY GICS ECONOMIC GICS SUB-INDUSTRY
SECTOR
ADDED Abercrombie & Consumer Apparel Retail
Fitch Discretionary
DELETED Univision Consumer Broadcasting & Cable TV
Discretionary
S&P MIDCAP 400 INDEX - March 28, 2007
COMPANY GICS ECONOMIC GICS SUB-INDUSTRY
SECTOR
ADDED Phillips-Van Consumer Apparel, Accessories &
Heusen Discretionary Luxury Goods
DELETED Abercrombie & Consumer Apparel Retail
Fitch Discretionary
S&P MIDCAP 400 INDEX - April 4, 2007
COMPANY GICS ECONOMIC GICS SUB-INDUSTRY
SECTOR
ADDED NVR Inc. Consumer Homebuilding
Discretionary
DELETED New Plan Excel Financials Retail REITs
Realty Trust
S&P SMALLCAP 600 INDEX - March 28, 2007
COMPANY GICS ECONOMIC GICS SUB-INDUSTRY
SECTOR
ADDED Blackbaud Information Application Software
Technology
DELETED Phillips-Van Consumer Apparel, Accessories &
Heusen Discretionary Luxury Goods
S&P SMALLCAP 600 INDEX - March 30, 2007
COMPANY GICS ECONOMIC GICS SUB-INDUSTRY
SECTOR
ADDED Spartan Stores Consumer Staples Food Distributors
DELETED Carreker Information Data Processing &
Technology Outsourced Services
S&P SMALLCAP 600 INDEX - April 4, 2007
COMPANY GICS ECONOMIC GICS SUB-INDUSTRY
SECTOR
ADDED Arris Group Information Communications
Technology Equipment
DELETED NVR Inc. Consumer Homebuilding
Discretionary
S&P REIT COMPOSITE INDEX - March 28, 2007
COMPANY GICS ECONOMIC GICS SUB-INDUSTRY
SECTOR
ADDED Education Financials Residential REITs
Realty Trust
DELETED Mills Financials Retail REITs
S&P REIT COMPOSITE INDEX - April 4, 2007
COMPANY GICS ECONOMIC SECTOR GICS SUB-INDUSTRY
ADDED One Liberty Financials Diversified REITs
Properties
DELETED New Plan Excel Financials Retail REITs
Realty Trust
3/28/2007
Rally runs out of steam
The counter trend rally from the panicky bottom seems to have run out of steam. The longevity of the rally was always a question mark because it was happening to quickly after the correction. But the few weeks offered lots of opportunities and number of new stocks like BTJ, DXPE, WFR, JSDA, ROCM, ACAD, CPHD, PRGX, etc. had a quick 25 to 50% move within that time period. There still might be another attempt at bounce , driven by month end and quarter end dynamics.
The next phase of down move is likely to be characterized by steady systematic selling. That kind of steady selling can be enduring. Panics are always of short duration and good opportunities for long.
Long opportunities will still continue to offer better options. Especially the episodic pivot scans will work, even if we go in to a down move. Only thing is greater selectivity will be required. As bulk of my focus is on Episodic Pivots, I have added that scan information to this post and hence forth will shift attention to it rather than 100% plus moves.
Market Monitor
Total 4% plus bullish breakouts=67
Total 4% plus bearish breakouts=61
65 day bullish/bearish ratio= 707/328
Stocks up 50% or more in a month=7
Stocks up 25% or more in a month=51
Number of stocks with 100% plus move =322
Number of stocks up 200% or more = 59
4% plus signals for 100plus universe=16
4% plus signals for 200plus universe=5
Select stocks which had Episodic Pivot moves today. Unusual price and volume move often kick start a long duration rallies. Identifying the catalyst behind such one day move can help determine the likelihood of the move continuing.
Episodic Pivots
ACPW,Active Power Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ANF,Abercrombie & Fitch Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BDCO,Blue Dolphin Energy Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BLKB,Blackbaud Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CYCC,Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CYTK,Cytokinetics (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DIO,Diomed Holdings Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DNDN,Dendreon Corporation (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DVSA,Diversa Corporation (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FUL,H.b. Fuller Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GHCI,Genesis Healthcare Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GRZ,Gold Reserve Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HAYZ,Hayes Lemmerz International Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HWCC,Houston Wire & Cable Company (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
IDSA,Industrial Svcs Of Amer (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
KRY,Crystallex Internat Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LMRA,Lumera Corporation (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LNDC,Landec Corporation (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NCST,NUCRYST Pharmaceuticals Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NOIZ,Micronetics Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NYMX,Nymox Pharmaceutical Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PVH,Phillips-Van Heusen Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SYPR,Sypris Solutions Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TECUA,Tecumseh Products Cl A (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VYYO,Vyyo Incorporated (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
Select stocks which had 100% plus move in last 260 days from the low and which are up more than 4% on higher volume. Today's minimum volume is above 100000. To understand how to trade this see the post "How to find a stock which makes a 1500% plus move in a year".
BPA,Biosante Pharmaceuticals (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BRLC,Syntax-Brillian Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CDY,Cardero Resource Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CNST,Constar Internatl (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CTCH,Commtouch Software Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CYNO,Cynosure Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GMO,Idaho General Mines Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GOT,Gottschalks Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HAYZ,Hayes Lemmerz International Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HOKU,Hoku Scientific Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MFW,M&F Worldwide Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NTY,Nbty Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NXST,Nexstar Broadcasting Group (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NYMX,Nymox Pharmaceutical Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SPTN,Spartan Stores Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VYYO,Vyyo Incorporated (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
The next phase of down move is likely to be characterized by steady systematic selling. That kind of steady selling can be enduring. Panics are always of short duration and good opportunities for long.
Long opportunities will still continue to offer better options. Especially the episodic pivot scans will work, even if we go in to a down move. Only thing is greater selectivity will be required. As bulk of my focus is on Episodic Pivots, I have added that scan information to this post and hence forth will shift attention to it rather than 100% plus moves.
Market Monitor
Total 4% plus bullish breakouts=67
Total 4% plus bearish breakouts=61
65 day bullish/bearish ratio= 707/328
Stocks up 50% or more in a month=7
Stocks up 25% or more in a month=51
Number of stocks with 100% plus move =322
Number of stocks up 200% or more = 59
4% plus signals for 100plus universe=16
4% plus signals for 200plus universe=5
Select stocks which had Episodic Pivot moves today. Unusual price and volume move often kick start a long duration rallies. Identifying the catalyst behind such one day move can help determine the likelihood of the move continuing.
Episodic Pivots
ACPW,Active Power Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ANF,Abercrombie & Fitch Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BDCO,Blue Dolphin Energy Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BLKB,Blackbaud Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CYCC,Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CYTK,Cytokinetics (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DIO,Diomed Holdings Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DNDN,Dendreon Corporation (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DVSA,Diversa Corporation (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FUL,H.b. Fuller Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GHCI,Genesis Healthcare Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GRZ,Gold Reserve Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HAYZ,Hayes Lemmerz International Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HWCC,Houston Wire & Cable Company (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
IDSA,Industrial Svcs Of Amer (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
KRY,Crystallex Internat Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LMRA,Lumera Corporation (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LNDC,Landec Corporation (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NCST,NUCRYST Pharmaceuticals Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NOIZ,Micronetics Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NYMX,Nymox Pharmaceutical Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PVH,Phillips-Van Heusen Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SYPR,Sypris Solutions Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TECUA,Tecumseh Products Cl A (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VYYO,Vyyo Incorporated (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
Select stocks which had 100% plus move in last 260 days from the low and which are up more than 4% on higher volume. Today's minimum volume is above 100000. To understand how to trade this see the post "How to find a stock which makes a 1500% plus move in a year".
BPA,Biosante Pharmaceuticals (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BRLC,Syntax-Brillian Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CDY,Cardero Resource Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CNST,Constar Internatl (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CTCH,Commtouch Software Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CYNO,Cynosure Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GMO,Idaho General Mines Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GOT,Gottschalks Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HAYZ,Hayes Lemmerz International Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HOKU,Hoku Scientific Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MFW,M&F Worldwide Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NTY,Nbty Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NXST,Nexstar Broadcasting Group (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NYMX,Nymox Pharmaceutical Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SPTN,Spartan Stores Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VYYO,Vyyo Incorporated (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
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