Shorts battle a tricky market

It is currently a difficult environment to trade in. The best long entries were couple of weeks ago when the market looked most vulnerable and the bears were dancing on the street. That was an ideal panic buy set up for quick profit. Now putting on long is tricky.

Even more tricky thing is shorts. Yesterday provided a good lesson in why you need to be very patient to put your shorts. The last two days action had shorts excited. The hypothesis is that this move is fated for failure. That is my hypothesis also, but timing is the issue. So overeager Index shorts were a very good fodder for the last 45 minutes rally. Part of the rally was quarter end effect and large part of it was again panicky shorts getting squeezed. The game always remains the same on the street.

Market Monitor
Total 4% plus bullish breakouts=99
Total 4% plus bearish breakouts=54
65 day bullish/bearish ratio= 727/319
Stocks up 50% or more in a month=7
Stocks up 25% or more in a month=53
Number of stocks with 100% plus move =320
Number of stocks up 200% or more = 64
4% plus signals for 100plus universe=8
4% plus signals for 200plus universe=3

Select stocks which had Episodic Pivot moves today. Unusual price and volume move often kick start a long duration rallies. Identifying the catalyst behind such one day move can help determine the likelihood of the move continuing. Short term momentum often translates in to long term momentum.

Episodic Pivots
GOL,Gollinhas Aereas Inteligentes (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
IPS,Ipsco Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
PBR,Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras ADS (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
PBR.A,Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras ADS Class A (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
PKX,Posco (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)

Select stocks which had 100% plus move in last 260 days from the low and which are up more than 4% on higher volume. Today's minimum volume is above 100000. To understand how to trade this see the post "How to find a stock which makes a 1500% plus move in a year".

Force Protection Inc, is a Iraq war play and stock is up 886% from 260 days low. I have had two very profitable trades in this stock in last 6 month and now in to third trade on this one. SPAR, Spartan Motors is a related company in this category and is up 238% from 260 days low.

BPA,Biosante Pharmaceuticals (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
CCC,Calgon Carbon Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
FRPT,Force Protection Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
GMO,Idaho General Mines Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
HMB,Homebanc Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
TGX,Theragenics Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
TSL,Trina Solar Ltd. (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
WBD,Wimm Bill Dann Foods Ojsc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)

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3 comments:

M.A.S said...: just poppin' by,
cool blog..
good info..
Have fun!
MAS; Mar 31, 2007, 8:16:00 AM
Stock Trader said...: I have been trading HMB (on your list) for the past 15 days (Selling 20 to 30% of the position as the stock moves up)and have done (112%) very well. What min (5, 10, or 60minutes) view should I be more focus on at this point? The EMA 100 is now just a few points away and with most indicators showing overbought I feel this will just more sideways for a few days/weeks. Is this the way you see it? Do you see about 80% more to the upside yet? Should I consider shorting the bounce?

Thank you!; Apr 1, 2007, 3:46:00 AM
Pradeep Bonde said...: I haven't looked at minutes charts for years. My trading time frames are weeks or months.

EMA are lagging indicator, have no predicting ability and I do not use them.

The simplest solution I see to your question is to use a trailing stop and let the market do its own thing.; Apr 1, 2007, 9:28:00 AM

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