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How swing traders make money

Posted on 8/29/2019
A post I made sometime back but we are discussing gain in members site in light of current market conditions.

Swing traders look for 2 to 20% kind of moves in a short period of time. They look for hundreds of them in a year.

In order for these moves to make a difference to your account you need to understand the maths of returns.

Let us say you hold 20 positions of same size in your 100k account. Then each position becomes 5k. Let us say a stock you buy goes up 10% after entry , how much is it going to contribute to your overall profit.

Only .5%. You will need 200 such trade for a 100% returns.

But wait a minute for most traders the success rate of a trade actually working is going to be around 50% only. Which will mean 200 trades will not get you to doubling.

Supposing you risk 25% on each trade instead of 5% of capital. Then a trade with 10% potential will give you 2.5% overall return. If it is 20% return trade it will give you 5% overall return on your capital. You will need roughly 15 consecutive trades of 5% overall profit to double your money.


The implication of that is in order to make big returns in a year you will need anywhere from 300 to 1000 trades depending on how much you risk per trade.

This is in line with trade count of most traders who make money trading . I have asked several successful traders how many trades they do in a year and most do upwards of 200 plus trades.

Which most people do not understand and that is why they are looking for position trading method which will give them that kind of return in 4 to 5 trades.

That is possible, if you are extremely selective in selecting your trades. And if you have extremely well developed expertise in identifying those 4 or 5 sure winners. Very few people in the trading world will have that skill.

And if you are asking how to do it you have several years of learning curve ahead of you


The easier path is to swing trade and expect to make 400 to 1000 trade if you are looking for triple digit kind of gains.

But everyday look for opportunity where you can put in 25% or more of your capital in one idea. In a year if you get few of those big wins of 4 to 5% or 10% returns on your capital, it then drives your returns higher.

If you understand this maths you will also understand why good day traders make big returns. It is simple maths, there per position risk is higher. A day trader often puts in significantly large part of his capital in one single trade. So even a small 1 to 4% profit move contributes more to his or her returns. Add to that leverage and you are looking at magnified returns.

So let us say a day trader with 100k capital  buys 1000 shares of 50 dollar stock and get out same day for 2 dollar profit , he has made 2000 dollars or 2% on his capital . Even catching a 50 cents move with 1000 share lots makes them 500 dollar or .5% returns on total capital. And then they make 20 to 25  trades like this in a day where they might just make 100 to 300 dollars , and lose 100 to 300 on some , in the process ending up with say 2500 dollar for day.

A swing trader will not be able to match a good day traders profit unless they find very big EP kind swings and risk big.

Now let us suppose you understand this maths , how can you use it in real life trading.

Look for opportunities to put bigger amount of capital per trade while managing risk. If your stop is very close to entry you can with just .25% or .50% risk put in sometime 60 to 70% of capital in one swing trade.

If large trades are not available then look for several small trades.

Strive to keep per trade loss as low as possible. If you can keep your losses small you will have better mood to trade and can take several trades without going through emotional ups and downs.

It does not matter if you have lot of wash trades you close immediately if they do not work. Especially if you are trading a momentum burst kind phenomenon you want the trade to rocket off immediately.

Anticipation allows you to put more money in trade for same unit of risk

The single biggest advantage of anticipation trades is it allows you to put a stop very close to entry.

As a result for say same amount of .5% or 1% risk you can often get sometime 70 to 100% or even more of account in one trade. That allows you to move the needle faster.

Dollar breakouts and Low threshold breakouts also allow you to do the same thing.

Focus on dollar breakouts, they offer you opportunity to risk bigger per trade.

Stop dreaming about doubling money in few trades (if that happens that is bonus, but you do not base your method on that). While it is possible and one must everyday focus on finding them at same time keep on collecting small profits. it will give you the ability to risk big on select few trades.

If you are holding 40 to 50 small positions, realistically look at the probability of you making big returns. It will be low. Mutual funds do that and that is why their returns suck.

Most importantly understand the maths of swing trading means finding 20 or so big swing trades where you can risk big up to 25% of capital and try and make 20 to 40% on them...... But frequency of those trades largely depends on market conditions.


Your returns are also function of your ability to take bigger risk. For same % return trade a bigger size obviously magnifies return. A 5 dollar profit on 100 shares position is 500 dollar but someone willing to take big risk like Dan Zanger it might be 5000 dollar profit on 1000 shares.

If you want big returns, once you perfect your setup and have track record of over 100 to 200 trades with 2:1 profit and 50% kind success rate then you can increase your per position risk to 1 to 2% per trade and your returns will improve.

But when you do that number of trades you do will automatically decrease as you will not be able to take as many trades...

While most traders highlight carefully selected example of what has worked to show their greatness, reality is they also have many small profit trades.

It is also misleading way to lure people in to believing long term trends is best. Most of those examples are also old stocks. Where in hindsight saying you should have held CSCO or something like that.

 They might be doing 200 to 400 trades but then they just highlight the 2 or 3 that gave them most profit to highlight their method. But that is reality distortion.

Many want to do very few trades. But then do they have the edge to find those kind of big winners. I would also like to do only one trade in a year and make triple digit returns.

The reality is then you have to be damn good at picking that one shot and risking 100% of your capital. It is a fantasy which many people have.

You might get something like that in a year, but you do not base your strategy on it. That is my view. Everyone has different view.

Understand the maths of swing trading and active trading and you will know which variable to control....

If your win rate is low focus on setup quality

If your per trade profit is low focus on either improving it or increasing number of trades.

At the end of the day most swing traders try and make money by doing several hundred trades that give them .25% to 5% returns on total capital per  trade

 5% kind returns not so common so they do hundreds of .25% to 1% return .

Study Anticipation in detail and put significant effort in making anticipation as part of your setup mix


Trading both breakouts and anticipation setup will give you better returns than just trading breakouts.

Many anticipation trades will move your account faster than breakout trades as your risk (entry-stop) will be lower.

Add high capitalisation and high liquidity setup to your mix for same reason

High cap stocks are not very fast movers but they have often low volatility , that allows you to risk big on them with close stops.

If is easier to take 3000 to 5000 or even more shares position in extremely high cap and liquid stock with close stop. A 8 to 10% move in such situation can help you move the needle on your account.


Focus on top 2% stocks by capitalisation and stocks that daily trade more than 9 million plus ( minv3.1>=9000000)

Look for low risk entry on them and do bigger size.

Overall add the following to your trade mix :


Anticipation

$ b/o

Low threshold b/o

High cap high volume stocks

This will allow you to do some size trades and possibly hold longer

Hit and run trades

Posted on 8/20/2019

JD showed up in 9 million breakout. Gap up big in morning was likely to fade so booked profit. If it sets up again in a few days will buy again.


ROKu short was abandoned baby short scan. Did not follow through much but still made 5k. Yesterday I highlighted ROKU in afternoon newsletter and bought with 1 dollar stop. Went up after entry so moved stop on 900 to protect profit. Got hit at 2.4 per share. Holding 100 with break even stop.

Difficult market conditions , so you have to do hit and run trades.


How to build your own trading method without losing years

Posted on 8/16/2019

If you want to make money trading then you have to develop an edge. You have to find things that work in market and build your trading methods around them.

That kind of process requires good understanding of how markets operate and what works and why. If you base your methods on structural tendency of the market then you are likely to be profitable.

What makes some of this process difficult is that you have to figure out everything for yourself. There are many resources you can tap but ultimately the responsibility of making it work is your own.

You have to figure out how markets work on different timeframes and why. You have to figure out how different types of stocks behave over their lifetime. You have to figure out how IPO behave. You have to figure out how value and growth stocks behave. You have to figure out how momentum stocks behave. You have to figure out what factors drive stock returns.

You need to figure out how overall market direction affects the growth, value, and momentum stocks and how to adjust your style. 

You have to figure out how to manage risk. You need to figure out how to determine safe periods for your strategy and how to avoid unsafe periods.You have to figure out how to control per trade risk as well as overall risk so that your drawdowns remain very low and you can quickly recover from any setbacks.

You have to design your own method, devise your own rules and have enough confidence to trust your own method. 

Unless you start your career in a big bracket investment bank or in a hedge fund, this is the reality of trading success. All individual traders who are profitable over the years have done this and each one has taken a different route to get there and has spent different time frame to arrive at profitability.

The ability to learn trading on your own is going to determine your success. Some people persist at it for years and then they find success. Some try it for a few days or months and that is the end of it.

Today this task is easy. Internet has made tons of information and research available at fraction of cost and time it would take you to learn to trade 20 years ago. Brokerage commissions are extremely low (they were 39.99 each way when I started) . You have hundreds of good quality blogs and subscription sites available.

Build your trading around a successful trading approach based on structural market phenomenon. There are many such approaches in public domain. Even if you find a ready made profitable strategy you may not find success with it till you customise it for your own needs and beliefs and personality. But that should not take you ten years if you are part of good group of traders.

So much of trading is about individualization of methods to your own unique way of thinking and style. There are no standard methods. There are approaches. If you are smart, you would be able to build a method after studying some of the well known public domain approaches.

One of the big problems for many people is that they are waiting for Moses to give them detailed rules, guidelines and every single nuances. I have bad news for them. It is unlikely to happen. God is too busy handling other big problems in the world than to offer you get rich scheme.

From studying the history of the market you can find profitable approaches. When you study history you will see in spite of market changes, trading technology changes, market participants changes, rules and laws changes, some approaches have survived for hundreds of years.

Find those enduring approaches. Momentum investing has worked since markets were established. Growth investing has been around since 1600 when first stock markets started. It still is around. Value investing has been around since then, so is momentum investing and contrarian investing.

Approaches of trading time frames of day trading, swing trading, position trading, and long term investing have been around since the start of the markets. Technology today has allowed high frequency trading but the other approaches still remain valid. Most active traders focus on swing and day trading. 

As a trader you have to choose your timeframe based on your personality, psychological makeup, life styles, need to for regular returns and above all your skill level. Once you become good at one time frame it is easier to transition to different timeframes.


Swing trading. For hundreds of years traders have been trading some form of swing trading method. All of them arrived at that decision after several trials and errors. Different people use different terminology to describe swing trading. 

But whether it was Livermore, Darvas, Baruch, O'Neil, Zweig, Wyckoff, or most traders profiled in Market Wizard, one thing is common, they are basically swing traders. Swing traders primarily focus on capturing a part of the move or a swing in stock moves. 

Base your approach around swing trading your learning curve will be shortened.  I

Entry methods. If you understand swing trading you will understand that basic elements of any swing trading method are entry techniques, exit techniques, stop techniques, risk management techniques. Various traders use various entry techniques. 

Vehicle Selection. Once you understand swing trading and the nuances of it , you will also discover that selecting the right stock or instrument to swing trading can greatly enhance or magnify your returns.

Swing trading approach married to good vehicle selection and market timing will make you profitable quickly.

But your task is simple if you are a member of Stockbee. A Turn key ready made setup and method solution is given to you. You just need to make it work for you. 


Not only that you have access to several very successful traders approaches and methods. 


You can meet them in the Bootcamp or the  Advance Bootcamp and learn from them or you can interact with them on Timeline.
Previous Bootcamp Feedbacks

gravitarstockcatcha7:56 PM Apr 8th 2019
@Eg Thank you so much for the awesome Bootcamp you put on this weekend. This was my second time and I learned so much. I have pages and pages of notes to go through and lots to implement. Thank you for your time, knowledge and generosity. Also, nice meeting my fellow boot campers.

gravitarhamme8:33 AM Apr 8th 2019
@Pardeep: Can't Thank you enough for such an informative session. You always go above and beyond to ensure our learning. Beside being a successful businessman, you are a born teacher. Its a blessing to know people who are so generous in spending their time and wealth of knowledge.

gravitarSM9201517:02 PM Apr 7th 2019
@Pradeep- Thank you for a great bootcamp, and all the information you shared with us. Your simple and down-to-earth approach helped keep the focus on learning. Wish I had become a member and learnt your setups /tactics 10 years ago. I'll be Marie Kondo-ing a lot of other stuff I have picked up over the years.
For any new trader on the timeline- the most important and easiest thing for making money consistently is to master a setup that has 1) a good expectancy and 2) also is available in abundance. 3LYNCH ticks both those boxes!

gravitarTreyder4:34 PM Apr 7th 2019
@EG — Thank you for an incredible bootcamp. I’ve been wanting to go since I joined the site last year and it exceeded all expectations. Thank you for your time and patience. I enjoyed meeting other stockbee members and look forward to seeing everyone’s growth as traders.

gravitarARao4:28 PM Apr 7th 2019
Guru thank u for the fantastic Boot camp, always new some thing to new ...thanks pal...:-) Formula, Process and Execution... Thank u thank u...



roboticinvest2:24 PM Oct 29th 2018
Still digesting but key learnings from Bootcamp:
  1. Focus on core methods: $ b/o 4% b/o, ANTs, LTB, EP, NTRT
  2. The best trades make hundreds of trades in a year. They turn over their capital a lot.
  3. With proper trade management and a lot of trades, the good trades will earn you substantially more than the small losers. See #2.
  4. Strucurally, only two things really work in the market: momentum and post-earnings announcement.
  5. $ b/o is a good way to capture larger gains with limited risk; can take on bigger size and make more
  6. Approx 50% of ants will be swing trades, and 50% will fail, give or take. See #2
  7. The biggest advantage to $ b/o and ants is you can put your stop very close to entry. If it work is works great, if not, you only lose a little.
  8. Stop ignoring the NTRT post EG posts daily - there is money there if you focus on it.
  9. Stop looking for the shiny new things; focus on the core methods and perfect those.
  10. Trade analysis is important to get better: setup, process, market, or trader learnings.
  11. Momentum is key - the top momentum stocks are strong stocks to trade
  12. 3LYNCH and MAGNA5 works so use them
  13. Use stops, use stops, use stops, use stops. (No regret if it stops out)


cpmcknight2:05 PM Oct 29th 2018
EG, Bootcamp was awesome, my favorite was not any one thing by itself. I think it was your answers to questions that filled in the small gaps in what I learned from all your videos etc. Aggressively managing trades, the how to do it and NtRT left the biggest impressions. You were absolutely correct, it completed the learning loop. Thanks again for holding the training last minute!


morrow1101:46 PM Oct 29th 2018
This was my 2nd time of attending, and this was the best bootcamp. Thank you EG for your passion in the teachings and the market!


SleekTrader11:02 AM Oct 29th 2018
@EG - Thanks for the fantastic bootcamp, it always helps to get a reaffirmation of beliefs/methods, especially after having taken an extended break from the markets. Great turnout, and the detailed discussions re: various processes help cement the strategies. Bootcamp setting helped in refreshing & absorbing/assimilating a large amount of information in a short timeframe as well.


Just want to drop a note thanking you for putting on the boot camp.  Was really valuable to speak to you directly about trading these methods and confirming my learning over the past few months.  Now to go and make some money....
JM

bizfix8:11 PM Oct 28th 2018
i loved bootcamp it was my second and once again walked away with confirmation that the key to success is money managemnet and stops.


ddash4:45 PM Oct 28th 2018
EG: Glad I made it to the bootcamp; thanks as always for another outstanding bootcamp; Lots of homework to do; Appreciate all your patience with many questions I asked. Have a profitable week ahead.


EG thanks for the excellent bootcamp. It has opened my eyes to how these simple methods make so much money in such short period of time. You explanation of how to manage trade was very eye opening . It has made me examine my beliefs and trading .
So many times I have just sat and let open profit go in hope of catching more gains. Your “half Whiskey” stop blew my mind away and I went back last night and analysed all my trades, If I had followed the approach you discussed I would have made 10 times more money than what I made in same trades. I also like your idea of using half of the days move stop on entry.
Last 2 days opened my eyes to how these simple and well thought out strategies like 4%, $ breakout and SLTB find almost every trade in the market. Your simplification of these methods and discussion of process was very useful to me and developing my own process.
Thank you for providing such a detailed roadmap on every setup and more than that explaining the logic behind everything.
I have attended seminars by many other well known traders , some costing more than 5000 dollars , but your 2 day bootcamp beats all that. I plan to attend many more in future.
Thank you again for your passion and effort.
You can post this on Timeline but do not put my name.


chiefmojorisin9:37 AM Sep 17th 2018
Bootcamp was great. I now am going to start to implement NTRT into my trading flower. This simple strategy is money making machine and EG explained it very well during Bootcamp. I recommend every trader who is serious about your trading journey to attend the Bootcamp. Thanks Pradeep.

Petethedog8:39 AM Sep 17th 2018
Many thanks for your boot camp EG. Words can not describe how helpful it was to me. It is a must for any trader to attend at least once.

mika8:38 AM Sep 17th 2018
Thank you Pradeep for drilling down the point of structural methods for 4% Breakout, Anticipation and NTRT. Appreciate all your help.


jaybm8:27 AM Sep 17th 2018
Thanks EG for another great boot camp. There's always some thing new to learn in each and every boot camp. Your detailed reviews of your trades where eye opening and was a window into your trading and trade management. Appreciate your generosity and selflessness in sharing your complete knowledge!


LB8:50 PM Sep 16th 2018
Another great boot camp in the books. This was also my third. I gain insights and knowledge every time. Pradeep is very generous sharing his methods and his personal evolution as a trader. Highly recommend regardless of experience level. Thanks to EG and to all of those who participated.


ram7:46 PM Sep 16th 2018
Thank you Pradeep for conducting the boot camp. This is my third boot camp. The main thing I got out of this boot camp is trade management, where I had been struggling. The simplified 3LYNCH and MAGNA5 are easy to execute. Thanks to all the attendees for asking questions. Learnt a lot from Pradeep's answers to the questions.

markhike7:23 PM Sep 16th 2018
Words are hard to describe the two-day Bootcamp experience. Thank you Guru for sharing your priceless knowledge, battle field experience and infectious passion for trading! It was mind-blowing and I completely filled up my notebook with valuable information which will take me a few weeks to absorb and put into use. I hope when looking back in the future, it was a turning point of massively profitable trading for me and many other attendees. Go 3LYNCH and MAGNA5!


magu0077:20 PM Sep 16th 2018
Thank you Pradeep for all the time you invested in the bootcamp, all the teaching and sharing tips ,info and experience. Surely it makes a big difference to participate, for me it was worth the trip. Thanks a lot. Marina


maxtrading856:59 PM Sep 16th 2018
Thank you Pradeep for sharing the vast amount of knowledge with us during the bootcamp. You clarified so many doubts in my mind regarding so many concepts that were blurry before this. I am sure that this will help me in taking my trading/investing to the next level. You are one gem of a person for creating this community and providing the knowledge that you have gained over long period of time and beautifully packaging it in two days. The way you clarified the concepts on setups, risk management, trade management and process with such simplicity was just amazing. I will forever be grateful to you for the time you took to teach us at the Bootcamp. You are the best.


pateldip845:53 PM Sep 16th 2018
Thank you Pradeep for the valuable time and knowledge you have shared with us these two days of Bootcamp.


I wanted to thank you for your dedication to aspiring traders and a great learning experience this weekend, Ive been a member for awhile now and I regret not coming to bootcamp sooner.
Anthony

Hi EG,

Thanks so much for the incredible learning opportunity at the bootcamp this weekend.  I feel more confident that I can trade successfully after spending two days with one of the best in the business!! I also enjoyed meeting the other attendees. I plan on attending another bootcamp in the future. 

Greg


morrow1101:49 PM Feb 19th 2018
@eg, The boot camp filled in the gaps for me in terms of which strategies to concentrate based on setups different characteristics. It is highly recommended to those who recently joined or never been to the camp (like myself). Just reading and watching the videos will not give you solid footing unless one knows which set ups are right for one's life style. It was time well worth spent. Thanks again.

ARao12:16 PM Feb 19th 2018
@eg thank you for the super Bootcamp.. :) it was good learning...

prem19649:47 AM Feb 19th 2018
@easyguru, the bootcamp was excellent. I learned so much. thanks for taking the time to teach us.
shareade6:58 AM Feb 19th 2018
@easyguru , Thanks for your dedication and Passion to teach us the Methods at the Bootcamp. It was two days of intense focus and learning. Many gaps in my knowledge were filled. As someone new to this, I went home feeling more assured and confident that I can make this system work for me.
iqs10:29 PM Feb 18th 2018
@eg thank you so much for such great teaching at the bootcamp. you are truly a passionate and dedicated instructor.
jaybm9:08 PM Feb 18th 2018
Yet another amazing boot camp in the books. Throughly enjoyed interacting with all the attendees and learned a ton of stuff. Greatly appreciate Pradeep's generosity and willingness to share his knowledge.


tradeowl1:40 PM Mar 3rd 2017
I went to eg's bootcamp last year and I recommend it!

LB1:12 PM Mar 3rd 2017
Boot camp is very worth while. If you are serious and a beginner, the scales will start to fall off of your eyes at boot camp!

pmac12:48 PM Mar 3rd 2017
Agree with @bearing, bootcamp is well worth it, especially for newer traders
Bearing00111:23 AM Mar 3rd 2017
@All - bootcamp well worth you time if you can get there!


ssbiz5:56 AM Mar 27th 2017
Thanks Pradeep, it was an enriching experience and I appreciate your time and efforts in helping us reach our goals. It is really takes a 'Giving soul' to do what you do. I can confidently say that attending the camp gave me the clarity on what my next steps are, apart from imparting me the know-how on how to execute those steps. Thanks again.

jaybm7:57 PM Mar 26th 2017
Thanks EG for great 2 days of intense knowledge transfer. It was a real boot-camp in every sense of the of the word. Very innovative and literal use of the Carrot (lunch) and stick approach to drilling the core concepts of what to look for in breakouts and exit rules. Many Aha moments for me. Greatly appreciate your generosity.

mk6:02 PM Mar 28th 2017
Dear Pradeep:
Thank you for the excellent boot camp. It was worth my effort to travel 8 hours each way, by automobile and listen to your presentation on 2 days. Hopefully, it will make a better trader out of me. While most experts on investing pay lip service in being transparent, you go out of the way to make your methods easily accessible and can be reproduced. Your generosity to fellow traders can only be described in superlatives. Many thanks. MK

vadim5:54 PM Mar 28th 2017
Dear Pradeep! Thank you for well-organized boot camp, thank you for your time and effort to share your knowledge with other traders. Sincerely, Vadim.

agramtb12:48 AM Jun 26th 2017
@EG thanks for the great bootcamp.


ptab11:46 PM Jun 25th 2017
@eg thanks for a great bootcamp! It was refreshing to go through the fundamentals and be reminded to ignore all of the trading noise and distractions.

LB9:30 PM Jun 25th 2017
Another awesome Boot Camp. Great reinforcement of all the concepts taught here. Its not often you get to spend an entire weekend with a market wizard all for the fraction of the price of your average losing trade. What a bargain. Thank you Pradeep.

comito11:16 AM Apr 7th 2017
Still seats left for bootcamp! My goodness. Anyone newer to this site . . . . or just plain struggling . .. or someone who has never been to a boot camp should go. How many times do you get to pick a market guru's brain in person in your lifetime? In most cases in life I believe you get what you pay for but in this case it is so much more. I have never heard anyone come back from any type of bootcamp and say they regret it. Ok, I am done. Just don't want people to waste that opportunity as it does not come around very often.

mike19627:31 AM Jun 26th 2017
@eg. I am very grateful to you for all the hard work and knowledge that you shared with us at Bootcamp.

dfly7:49 AM Jun 26th 2017
Thanks-- e g--for the great boot camp--you changed my thinking in a couple of key areas--your willingness to spend your weekend teaching and sharing your knowledge--is not a common trait in today's world-----from the oldest guy there--who can still learn---dfly

mrm9:09 AM Jun 26th 2017
@eg Thank you for great weekend This was my 4th time and I always learn something new thank you for your time, dedication and willingness to share your knowledge with us

ddash10:25 AM Jun 26th 2017
@EG thank you from my bottom of my heart for all the help you provide to little guys like me. Bootcamp is definitely a game changer. Please do plan on having a bootcamp for west coast. I will handle the logistics. You are welcome to stay at my house :-) Btw: Who won the prize (books)?

ram11:10 AM Jun 26th 2017
@eg, thanks for your effort and time for conducting the bootcamp. The setup exercises were very helpful.

fredericf3:22 AM Aug 30th 2017
@eg Thank you for the great bootcamp in London last weekend. I am new to this game and I suspected these 2 days were going to be a blast. I was not disappointed!

i Pradeep,
I want to thank you again for a great bootcamp. I am very excited to implement all I have learnt from you and look forward to it. Thanks for your generosity in sharing your hard won knowledge and experience with us.
Many thanks,

Elvis.

Over the years hundreds of traders have used these methods and made them work for them. And every week you will see some members making progress by adopting these methods to their own trading and being successful.

This allows you to significantly reduce your learning curve and not lose money during the learning curve.

If you are not members you can still learn to be profitable trader by using this free site. It has details on several profitable setups. Just look at posts highlighted in sidebar.