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Resilient Stocks in Today's Market

Posted on 5/31/2006
There is an oft repeated adage on wall street, when they raid the whorehouse, they take everyone including the piano player. The recent market correction has been broadbased. But eventually when the market rallies, stocks which with stood selling will bounce back vigorously.

Stocks with superior earnings and growth will often correct with overall market correction. But if the underlying growth is not affected by market direction then these stocks find buyers at new level. Many times the current holders are reluctant to sell these shares, because they believe in their future prospects. The list below is what I am monitoring currently.

Watchlist

AMKR,Amkor Technology Inc
ARD,Arena Resources Inc
ARS,Aleris International Inc
ATHR,Atheros Communications Inc
BGC,General Cable Corp
CFK,Ce Franklin Ltd
CHAP,Chaparral Steel Company
CMG,Chipotle Mexican Grill
DXPE,Dxp Enterprises Inc
GDI,Gardner Denver Inc
GOOG,Google
HANS,Hansen Natural Corp
HNR,Harvest Natural Resources Inc
HOM,Home Solutions Of America
HSR,Hi-Shear Technology Corp
ICTG,Ict Group Inc
IIG,Imergent Inc
ISRG,Intuitive Surgical Inc
KFRC,Kforce.Com Inc
KMG,Kerr-Mcgee Corp
KNOT,The Knot Inc
KNXA,Kenexa Corp
LDSH,Ladish Co Inc
LVS,Las Vegas Sands
NTG,Natco Group Incorporated
NTRI,NutriSystem Inc
OYOG,Oyo Geospace Corp
PWEI,Pw Eagle Inc
SWIR,Sierra Wireless Inc
TTES,T-3 Energy Services Inc
ZUMZ,Zumiez Inc
ZVXI,Zevex Internat Inc


Stocks down 50% or more in a month

DHB,Dhb Industries Inc
DOVP,Dov Pharmaceutical Inc
EGI,Entree Gold Inc
ERS,Empire Resources
ESCL,Escala Group Inc
FLYIQ,FLYI Inc
NBIX,Neurocrine Biosciences
NTMD,Nitromed Inc
THLD,Threshold Pharmaceuticals

Stocks up 50% or more in a month

IFO,Infosonics

Stocks with all time high volume

CGPI,Collagenex Pharmaceuticl
RZ,Raser Technologies Inc
TRB,Tribune Co

Volatile market requires greater trading skills

Posted on 5/30/2006
The market have entered the high volatility phase and the risk is higher. In a trending market like the one we saw for last 3-4 years it is easy, buy all pullbacks or breakouts. Now a more selective approach is required. Timing entries and exits on both long and short becomes more critical in such volatile environment. Stock selection becomes even more critical. Risk management and average trade size and time frame all need adjustments. If you trade diversified basket of markets then there are great opportunities in other markets like bonds and currencies currently.

Stocks up 50% or more in a month
IFO,Infosonics
MED,Medifast Inc

Stocks down 50% or more in a month

DHB,Dhb Industries Inc
DOVP,Dov Pharmaceutical Inc
ERS,Empire Resources
ESCL,Escala Group Inc
FLYIQ,FLYI Inc
NBIX,Neurocrine Biosciences
THLD,Threshold Pharmaceuticals

Stocks with all time high volume

CMOS,Credence Systems Corp
LOV,Spark Networks plc
PBJ,PowerShares Dynamic Food & Beverage Portfolio ETF
XTLB,XTL Biopharmaceuticals ADR





Round up

Britain's most famous portfolio manager is a closet chartist.

The media-shy Mr Bolton, who runs £6.5 billion on behalf of a quarter of a million Fidelity Investments clients, said that he used charts to time his entry into some investments.
Chartism, the study of past patterns in stock prices to determine investment decisions is regarded by some investment purists as mumbo-jumbo and a waste of time.
However, Mr Bolton said: I've found charts very useful, particularly on bigger companies, especially for timing. When the technicals confirm the fundamentals, I use them in that way.
Charts were also useful in preventing him from buying into a blue chip too soon, he said. To be too early on a stock can be costly. It's a healthcheck. It's a bit like going to the doctor.


Easier it is to say a company's name, the more attractive it will be to investors claims a new reaserch.

All bubbles burst eventually. The newcomers to market take the maximum brunt when it happens. In the beginning there is shock and disbelief and then a hunt for scapegoats.


The newspaper industry is in trouble and long time bullish media analyst from Merrill raises alarm. Might be a good contrarian bet.

After writing about stocks for 28 years for Washington Post, Jerry Knight is buying his first stock at the age of 63. Imagine a food writer who does not cook and a travel writer who never travels.

The right stock at the right time

Posted on 5/26/2006
There is a tide in the affairs of men,
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.

This applies to stocks as well. Look at the three stocks in these lists:
IFO,Infosonics, JOYG,Joy Global Inc and MT,Mittal Steel Company N.V. These three stocks I have owned and traded in recent years.

Stocks up 50% or more in a month

IFO,Infosonics has rallied back to its old high. Look at the fundamentals to get a clue about why this stock has rallied so rapidly. It has almost doubled revenue from 73 million to 143 million in a year. This quarter the revenue has doubled compared to the same quarter a year earlier. If you look at earnings in 2005 they were 44 cents per share compared to a loss a year earlier. This quarter earnings are up almost 4 fold. Very few stocks have these kind of dramatic growth. Look at MED,Medifast and you will see similar kind of growth story.
If you monitor just the top 2% earning/sales performer in the market and forget about rest of the market, you will find a list of stocks like these. These stocks are volatile but they make dramatic price moves when they get going.
IFO,Infosonics
MED,Medifast Inc

Stocks with all time high volume

JOYG, Joy Global Inc made a move from a low price of 3.42 to 70 in few years. Look at the earning increases:1.20(2005),0.46 (2004),0.17(2003),-0.20(2002). Now yesterday it had a all time high volume. This coincides with latest earnings release. Which hinted at earnings slowdown. The party is over for this stock now. Rest of its life it will spend basing or going down.

MT,Mittal Steel Company N.V. was a penny stock few years ago. It made a low of 80 cents. From that low it went as high as 40 in few years. Look at the earnings during the fast price growth phase of this stock and you will understand why.
The all time high volume is linked to the failed merger.

EPL,Energy Partners Ltd
GCS,DWS Global Commodities Trust
JOYG,Joy Global Inc
MT,Mittal Steel Company N.V.
PBJ,PowerShares Dynamic Food & Beverage Portfolio ETF

Stocks down 50% or more in a month


BCGI,Boston Communications Gr
DOVP,Dov Pharmaceutical Inc
ERS,Empire Resources
ESCL,Escala Group Inc
FLYIQ,FLYI Inc
LOUDD,Loudeye Corporation
NBIX,Neurocrine Biosciences
NTMD,Nitromed Inc
THLD,Threshold Pharmaceuticals

NOTE: To understand these list and philosophy behind them read following posts
The logic behind monitoring all time high volume
Why study stocks making 50% or a move in a month everyday
How I use the stock with extreme volume signal
How I trade momentum stocks
Tops or bottoms- it's a stock pickers market
How to find good stocks

Special offers:
Try Telechart now. First 30 days free
Get 7 days free trial of Trade-ideas

All time high volume in QQQQ and SPY signals end of market correction



The bears have retreated on massive volume. This correction is over for now. The QQQQ,Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock ETF, SPY,SPDRs S&P 500 Trust Series ETF and IWM,iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF all three had a positive day on all time high volume.

Many of the components of NASDAQ 100 have already seen buying interest for last two to three days.

Also notice OIH,HOLDRS Oil Service ETF had a all time high volume. Keep a close eye on this sector for further clues to direction.

Keep your watchlist ready.

Stocks with all time high volume

BUF,Minrad International Inc
EEM,iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF
EWZ,iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETF
GGB,Gerdau Sa Ads
IWM,iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF
LINTA,Liberty Media Interactive Class A
MDG,Meridian Gold Inc
OIH,HOLDRS Oil Service ETF
QQQQ,Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock ETF
SBAC,Sba Communications Corp
SPY,SPDRs S&P 500 Trust Series ETF

Stocks up 50% or more in a month

IFO Infosonics

Stocks down 50% or more in a month

BCGI,Boston Communications Gr
DOVP,Dov Pharmaceutical Inc
ERS,Empire Resources
ESCL,Escala Group Inc
FLYIQ,FLYI Inc
NBIX,Neurocrine Biosciences
NTMD,Nitromed Inc
THLD,Threshold Pharmaceuticals


NOTE: To understand these list and philosophy behind them read following posts
The logic behind monitoring all time high volume
Why study stocks making 50% or a move in a month everyday
How I use the stock with extreme volume signal
How I trade momentum stocks
Tops or bottoms- it's a stock pickers market
How to find good stocks

Special offers:
Try Telechart now. First 30 days free
Get 7 days free trial of Trade-ideas

Linkfest

Posted on 5/24/2006
A business school in France is seeking a professor of Champagne

Driving around USA to find Top ten fast food.

The U.S. Postal Service is allowing companies to advertise on stamps.

Levi Strauss has designed a pair of jeans able to control a wearer's iPod.


Hedge fund manager
loves getting his hands dirty when it comes to digging for stocks.

A poker champion who makes 7.5 million in a year.

It would take UK credit card debtors more than 75 years to clear borrowings at an affordable rate.

It is better to buy the worst house in the toniest neighbourhood rather than the best house on a modest street.

Shaking hands with arguably the most powerful man in the world.

"Our customers don't know jack about IPO valuations. Quick--sell 'em stock!"

How to Set Up Your Own Hedge Fund

Fed Uncertainty Means Market Uncertainty

Move over "chick lit" , now there is "lad lit" for guys.

There are worse things a girl could say to a guy.

"The market will never rally again"

UPDATE: All time high volume in QQQQ and SPY signals end of market correction


Yesterday I got an email from one of the readers in response to yesterdays post.
"The market is not going to rally again. You are an idiot. You don't understand markets and keep looking for bounce. Learn short selling........"

It goes on and on about how we are doomed and how Bush has ruined the country and so on. I love it when the bears come out like this in full force.

The market action yesterday was disappointing. The market gapped up overnight but fizzled in last hour. There are several theories being talked about why it happened. The bird flue in Indonesia being the most talked about. You can never correlate news like that to markets action. Bad news in weak market is bad but the same bad news in strong market is shrugged off. Very bad news and series of bad news are also most common at extreme weakness level.

Some sectors attracted buying. This was mostly concentrated in the metals and energy sector. The ethanol stocks again seems to be in favor.

Market like this are good time to catch up with some readings and spend time on R&D. I have been catching up with lot of reading and will write about some good recent books I read. I have also been experimenting with new strategies using Trade-ideas and have found some good trading systems to add to my existing strategies.

Above all one needs to maintain sanity during such times. High velocity can play havoc with your emotions. You need perspective. You need confidence and conviction in your methodology. Backtesting can help. Market experience and knowledge of market history can also help .

Stocks up 50% or more in a month
All three plays in this list are related to strong earnings. HSR, Hi-Shear Technology Corp had a earning acceleration in recent quarter and is worth keeping an eye on.
HSR,Hi-Shear Technology Corp
IFO,Infosonics
MED,Medifast Inc

Stocks down 50% or more in a month
BCGI,Boston Communications Gr
DOVP,Dov Pharmaceutical Inc
DSCO,Discovery Labs Inc
EDAP,Edap Tms Sa Adr
ERS,Empire Resources
ESCL,Escala Group Inc
FLYIQ,FLYI Inc
FORD,Forward Industries Inc
NBIX,Neurocrine Biosciences
NMHC,National Med Hlth Card
NTMD,Nitromed Inc
THLD,Threshold Pharmaceuticals

Stocks with all time high volume
PEIX,Pacific Ethanol Inc is the ethanol play. It also is experiencing significant sales acceleration.
AZK,Aurizon Mines Ltd
IWO,iShares Russell 2000 Growth Index Fund ETF
PEIX,Pacific Ethanol Inc


Stocks on my watchlist
The list continues to shrink. Those still on the list might be next to break down or in early stage of breakdown. Some are hanging on to their recent high and experiencing little volume. Those are the ones to watch for.

ACLI,American Commercial Lines Inc
ADLR,Adolor Corporation
AEM,Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd
AMLN,Amylin Pharmaceuticals
ANAD,Anadigics Inc
ANDE,Andersons Inc (The)
AP,Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp
APAC,Apac Customer Services
APN,Applica Inc
ARD,Arena Resources Inc
ARS,Aleris International Inc
ASPV,Aspreva Pharmaceuticals
ATLS,Atlas America Inc
AXTI,Axt Inc
AZK,Aurizon Mines Ltd
BGC,General Cable Corp
BGO,Bema Gold Corp
BMD,Birch Mountain Resources Ltd
BUCY,Bucyrus International Inc
CAMT,Camtek Ltd
CBG,Cb Richard Ellis Svcs
CCJ,Cameco Corp
CELG,Celgene Corp
CELL,Brightpoint Inc
CFK,Ce Franklin Ltd
CHAP,Chaparral Steel Company
CLG,Cumberland Resources Ltd
CMCO,Columbus Mckinnon Cp(Ny)
COGO,Comtech Group Inc
CTRN,Citi Trends Inc
CUP,Peru Copper Inc
DAKT,Daktronics Inc
DBRN,Dress Barn Inc
DCEL,Dobson Communications A
DMX,I-trax Inc
DNR,Denbury Resources Ltd
DRQ,Dril-Quip Inc
DTLK,Datalink Corporation
DXPE,Dxp Enterprises Inc
ECOL,American Ecology Corp
EMIS,Emisphere Technologies
EUROD,EuroTrust A/S ADR
FAL,Falconbridge Ltd
FJC,Fedders Corp
FMCN,Focus Media Holding Ltd ADR
FNSR,Finisar Corporation
FRNS,First Avenue Networks Inc
FTI,Fmc Technologies
FTO,Frontier Oil Corp
FWLT,Foster Wheeler Ltd
GAIA,Gaiam Incorporated Cl A
GDI,Gardner Denver Inc
GEX,Globix Corp
GFX,Media Sciences Intl Inc
GI,Giant Industries Inc
GIGM,Gigamedia Limited
GLBL,Global Industries Ltd
GLG,Glamis Gold Ltd
GMTC,Gametech Internat Inc
GORX,Geopharma Inc
GROW,U.S. Global Invest Inc A
GVP,Gse Systems Inc
GYMB,Gymboree Corp
HANS,Hansen Natural Corp
HOC,Holly Corp
HOM,Home Solutions Of America
HSR,Hi-Shear Technology Corp
ICCA,Internet Commerce Cl A
ICON,Iconix Brand Group
ICTG,Ict Group Inc
IFO,Infosonics
IIG,Imergent Inc
IIP,Internap Network Svcs Cp
ILMN,Illumina Inc
IMCO,Impco Technologies Inc
INB,Integrated BioPharma Inc
ISIG,Insignia Systems Inc
ISRG,Intuitive Surgical Inc
ISV,Insite Vision Inc
JLL,Jones Lang Lasalle Inc
JOYG,Joy Global Inc
KFRC,Kforce.Com Inc
KNDL,Kendle Internat Inc
KNOL,Knology Inc
KNOT,The Knot Inc
KNXA,Kenexa Corp
KRSL,Kreisler Manufacturing
LANV,Lanvision Systems Inc
LCC,US Airways Group Inc
LCRD,Lasercard Corporation
LDSH,Ladish Co Inc
LMIA,Lmi Aerospace Inc
LNUX,Va Software Corp
LTXX,Ltx Corp
LUFK,Lufkin Industries Inc
LVLT,Level 3 Communications
LVS,Las Vegas Sands
MBRX,Metabasis Therapeutics Inc
MDR,Mcdermott Internat Inc
MED,Medifast Inc
MGPI,Mgp Ingredients Inc
MORN,Morningstar Inc
MOVE,HomeStore Inc
MOVI,Movie Gallery Inc
MTRX,Matrix Service Co
MTW,Manitowoc Co Inc
MWRK,Mothers Work Inc
NAVI,Navisite Incorporated
NEU,Newmarket Corp
NITE,Knight Capital Group Inc Cl A
NTG,Natco Group Incorporated
NTRI,NutriSystem Inc
NXXI,Nutrition 21 Inc
NXY,Nexen Inc
OII,Oceaneering Internat
OMNI,Omni Energy Services Cp
OS,Oregon Steel Mills Inc
OYOG,Oyo Geospace Corp
PAE,Peace Arch Entmt Grp Inc
PGS,Petroleum Geo-services Asa
PGWC,Pegasus Wireless Corp (NV)
PJC,Piper Jaffray Companies
PLLL,Parallel Petroleum Corp
PLXS,Plexus Corp
PMTR,Pemstar Inc
PSTA,Monterey Gourmet Foods Inc
PWEI,Pw Eagle Inc
RAIL,FreightCar America Inc
RATE,Bankrate Inc
RBAK,Redback Networks Inc
RCCC,Rural Cellular Corp
RHAT,Red Hat Inc
RICK,Rick's Caberet Intl
RMIX,U.S. Concrete Inc
RNOW,Rightnow Technologies Inc
RPRX,Repros Therapeutics Inc
RTI,Rti Internat Metal Inc
RTK,Rentech Inc
SA,Seabridge Gold Inc
SHOO,Steven Madden Ltd
SMDI,Sirenza Microdevices
SMSI,Smith Micro Software Inc
SNTO,Sento Corporation
SPN,Superior Energy Svcs Inc
STIZ,Scientific Technologies
STRL,Sterling Construction Comp Inc
SU,Suncor Energy
SUPX,Supertex Inc
SVL,Silverleaf Resorts Inc
SVVS,SAVVIS Inc
SWIR,Sierra Wireless Inc
TACT,Transact Technologies
TESOF,Tesco Corp
TFSM,24/7 Real Media Inc
TIE,Titanium Metals Corp New
TMY,Transmeridian Exploration Inc
TRE,Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp
TRN,Trinity Industries Inc
TSCM,Thestreet.Com
TTES,T-3 Energy Services Inc
TTI,Tetra Technologies Inc
TWGP,Tower Grp Inc
TWIN,Twin Disc Inc
TWTC,Time Warner Telecom Inc
TWTR,Tweeter Home Entertainmt
UPL,Ultra Petroleum Corp
USEY,U.S. Energy Systems Inc
USG,Usg Corp
WCC,Wesco International Inc
WHQ,W-h Energy Services Inc
WIRE,Encore Wire Corp
WWWW,Web.Com Inc
XTXI,Crosstex Energy
ZOLT,Zoltek Companies Inc
ZRAN,Zoran Corp
ZUMZ,Zumiez Inc
ZVXI,Zevex Internat Inc


NOTE: To understand these list and philosophy behind them read following posts
The logic behind monitoring all time high volume
Why study stocks making 50% or a move in a month everyday
How I use the stock with extreme volume signal
How I trade momentum stocks
Tops or bottoms- it's a stock pickers market
How to find good stocks

Special offers:
Try Telechart now. First 30 days free
Get 7 days free trial of Trade-ideas

Ready for the next market move

Posted on 5/23/2006
When the US markets sneeze, others catch cold. A policy decision in USA about interest rates is playing havoc with the emerging markets. International diversification of your portfolio was the latest buzz for many investment advisors and portfolio managers. The theory was that the US has structural problems with its deficit and so the international markets were safe heaven. Another theme which people had digested and started believing in was commodities. Everyone has discovered that when the market tumbles there are no safe heavens.

GS, Goldman Sachs Group Inc pushed for the BRIC economies in 2003 and they were right about it. But now these market have taken big hits. The suddenness and speed of the decline has caught many people in wrong position.

A 10% down move in market after a long move is just a healthy correction. Now Goldman Sachs analyst are calling this correction a result of " Bernanke Bind". The hypothesis is that he is underestimating the risk of inflation. Plus he has the credibility problem after his famous fling with Maria Bartiromo.


Now that everyone is convinced crash is just a matter of time, the market will have its own agenda and will not follow the anticipated script. So a tradeable bounce is the next likely move. I am nibbling at some longs and all ready with my buylist once the market tips it hand this week.

When the market bounces back new themes will emerge. Some stocks in beaten down technology sector look attractive and have not been dented by the correction. Keep an eye on GOOG and AAPL


Stocks up 50% or more in a month

IFO,Infosonics
LBY,Libbey Inc
MED,Medifast Inc

Stocks down 50% or more in a month

EDAP,Edap Tms Sa Adr
ERS,Empire Resources
ESCL,Escala Group Inc
FORD,Forward Industries Inc
NBIX,Neurocrine Biosciences
NMHC,National Med Hlth Card

Stock with all time high volume
ARWR,Arrowhead Research Corp
BWCF,Bwc Financial Corp
CORE,Core-Mark Holding Company Inc
CURN,Curon Medical Inc
EEM,iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF
EWT,iShares MSCI Taiwan Index Fund ETF
EWW,iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund ETF
EWY,iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund ETF
EWZ,iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETF
FXI,iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund ETF
GGY,Compagnie Generale De Ge
IFN,India Fund
ILF,iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund ETF
ITU,Banco Itau S A Adr
JAMS,Jameson Inns Inc
MTU,Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc
TRID,Trident Microsystems Inc

Police on alert for suicides after stocks slide

The Indian stock market has crashed trapping many over eager bulls. The Indian market has a history of crashes. The regulations are lax and seldom enforced leading to periodic scandals.

Mumbai, May 22: Police are watching out for possible suicides by brokers and investors after a steep market slide wiped out billions of dollars in share values, officials said on Monday.

Policemen were keeping a watch near lakes and canals, possible places where people in distress could head to kill themselves. They said rescue teams were on alert.

Stock Market pauses but .......

After multi day sell off the market paused on Friday. Many indexes are showing high volume because of option expiration effect. Beaten down stocks have seen some stabilization. We may see more weakness at this level as the groups which have topped attract more unloading of long built positions. I am expecting more weakness before the market becomes tradeable.
The weekly commentary is bearish and full of apocalypse scenarios . The new theme now is inflation. There are some arguing about how the CPI is a conspiracy and it understates inflation. Most of the time such conspiracy theories are used by commentators to push pet theories and to use them selectively when it is convenient.
The fact is that the market downturn was inevitable for many reasons. The market was rallying without major pullback for months. The commodities market was in a blowout phase. The bond market was signaling higher interest rates. Worldwide the central bankers were raising interest rate.
The market correction coincides with earning period end. So there is window of 10-12 weeks for this correction to play out. In another 6 weeks the market will again move in earning anticipation mode. So long opportunities will emerge. The summer months are slow months and soon we should see that effect in markets.



Stocks up 50% or more in a month
Not much activity in this list. FRNS, First Avenue Networks Inc move in merger related. So the market likes the merger. MED, Medifast Inc and IFO,Infosonics are both earnings play and have not been affected by the market weakness.

FRNS,First Avenue Networks Inc
IFO,Infosonics
MED,Medifast Inc

Stocks with all time high volume

AMT,American Tower Corp
ATI,Allegheny Technologies
BEE,Strategic Hotel & Resorts Inc
BZF,Brazil Fund Inc
EWM,iShares MSCI Malaysia Index Fund ETF
EWY,iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund ETF
GG,Goldcorp Inc
GLG,Glamis Gold Ltd
IFN,India Fund
JKK,iShares Morningstar Small Growth Index Fund ETF
KNBWY,Kirin Brewery Company Ltd Adr
MT,Mittal Steel Company N.V.
NXG,Northgate Minerals Corp
QSFT,Quest Software Inc
RACK,Rackable Systems Inc
TTM,Tata Motors Ltd Ads

Stocks down 50% or more in a month

EDAP,Edap Tms Sa Adr
ESCL,Escala Group Inc
FORD,Forward Industries Inc
NBIX,Neurocrine Biosciences
NMHC,National Med Hlth Card
Posted on 5/19/2006
The Investors Business Daily has interesting statistics about the market in today's newspaper. But it only tells part of the story. You may want to look at what happened 10 days, a month, a quarter or a year after that.

Since1974, the Nasdaq has seen only six losing streaks longer than the current eight-day skid. The composite flashed two nine-day losing streaks in 1982. It's seen three 10 day slumps, once in 1975, 1975 and 1984. The worst stretch came in'84 when the Nasdaq tumbled 16 days in a row.


There are two kinds of corrections. The sharp corrections are invariable followed by sharp rebounds. The slow drip drip kind of corrections last longer in duration.


Stocks with extreme volume

NBR,Nabors Industries Inc had all time high volume yesterday. The stock did not participate much in the Energy sector rally last year and lagged its peers in yearly price growth rates. Might be a good candidate to watch for short sell.



HW,Headwaters Inc
ILF,iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund ETF
JSDA,Jones Soda Co
NBR,Nabors Industries Inc

Stocks up 50% or more in a month
Keep both these stocks IFO,Infosonics and MED,Medifast Inc in your watchlist, when the market clears, they might have potential, as both have excellent EPS, sales and price growth.

IFO,Infosonics
MED,Medifast Inc

Stocks down 50% or more in a month

To see how stocks on short side behave, I created this mirror image scan of 'Stocks up 50% or more in a month'. You will notice in spite of overall market weakness there are only 4 stocks on this list. This should not be a surprise to those who have tested short strategies. Short strategies have lower expectancies and offer fewer trading opportunities. Also seldom you will get smooth down trends. Most of the time it will be series of gap downs making it difficult to time entries.

ESCL,Escala Group Inc
NBIX,Neurocrine Biosciences
PLAY,Portalplayer
PQE,Proquest Company

Stocks down 50% or more in a year

Now to get a broader picture I looked at a scan of stocks down 50% or more for a year.(price above 50% and average daily cash flow of above 250000 for month) It has 33 stocks only. How does this compare to 443 stocks up 100% or more in a year. We will see if this universe increases dramatically in bear market as the market has just turned bearish while it was in bull market for four years.

ABLE,Able Energy Inc
ANTP,Phazar Corp
ARBX,Arbinet-thexchange
BHIP,Natural Health Trends Corp
BKF,Bkf Capital Group
BTRX,Barrier Therapeutics
CCOI,Cogent Communications Group Inc
CHCI,Comstock Homebuilding Comp
CMN,Cantel Medical Corp.
DDIC,Ddi Corp
DRL,Doral Financial Corp
ENWV,Endwave Corporation
FBP,First Bancorp Holding Co
FORD,Forward Industries Inc
HDL,Handleman Co
IDIX,Idenix Pharmaceuticals Inc
IOC,Interoil Corporation
MRH,Montpelier Re
NABI,Nabi Biopharmaceuticals
NPSP,Nps Pharmaceuticals Inc
PLB,American Italian Pasta
PQE,Proquest Company
RIGL,Rigel Pharmaceuticals Inc
SFCC,SFBC International Inc
SGTL,Sigmatel
SNDA,Shanda Interactive Ent Ltd
SPC,Spectrum Brands Inc
TARO,Taro Pharmaceutical Inds
TIV,Tri-valley Corp
TRMM,Trm Corporation
TWMC,Trans World Entertain Cp
WON,Westwood One Inc
WPTE,WPT Enterprises Inc

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Babak at Tradersnarrative has a good analysis of current market situation.
Here'’s another statistic that will blow your mind: out of all the thousands of stocks out there, less than a third have managed to close up for the day in the past five consecutive days. This has happened at market bottoms like Sept 2001, October 2002 and May 2004. But before you get excited, this sort of pattern also has a history of presaging market drops (like 1987).

My conclusion? I thought you'’d never ask. If you had short exposure, (congratulations! but…) this is the time to think about exit targets and adjusting your stops lower. It is not the time to be pressing shorts or initiating new short positions. We may have another whoosh down but the probability now points more to a rally. I would be searching here for potential long setups. I think we'’re going to have so many soon that it'’ll make you dizzy to choose from amongst them.

What I am monitoring and why

These are the kind of stocks, I have in my watchlist (at the bottom of the post). All of them meet the criteria of either high EPS, sales or price growth. Many of these have not been dented much by the recent overall market correction. Some of these will break down if the down move continues and for those seeking short entry might provide good candidates. During sustained market turns one by one such leading stocks break down adding more fuel.

When the markets rebounds, some of these stocks will be the first to rebound. A 2-4 weeks counter trend rallies during sustained market weaknesses are a common phenomenon and stocks like these can make good moves during that period.

Also certain sectors act contrary to the market move because of the nature of their business. During the 2001 correction following groups had 30% or more price growth for a year. Three groups out of these had 90% move (highlighted in bold). Over 300 stocks doubled during that period.

MG328,Office Supplies,CONSUMER NON-DURABLES - Office Supplies
MG345,Dairy Products,FOOD & BEVERAGE - Dairy Products
MG515,Drug Related Products,DRUGS - Drug Related Products
MG631,Residential Construction,MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION - Residential Construction
MG632,Manufactured Housing,MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION - Manufactured Housing
MG736,Home Improvement Stores,RETAIL - Home Improvement Stores
MG737,Home Furnishing Stores,RETAIL - Home Furnishing Stores
MG738,Auto Parts Stores,RETAIL - Auto Parts Stores
MG739,Catalog & Mail Order Houses,RETAIL - Catalog & Mail Order Houses
MG741,Sporting Goods Stores,SPECIALTY RETAIL - Sporting Goods Stores
MG744,Music & Video Stores,SPECIALTY RETAIL - Music & Video Stores
MG745,Auto Dealerships,SPECIALTY RETAIL - Auto Dealerships
MG751,Auto Parts Wholesale,WHOLESALE - Auto Parts Wholesale
MG752,Building Materials Wholesale,WHOLESALE - Building Materials Wholesale
MG763,Personal Service,DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Personal Services
MG764,Consumer Services,DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Consumer Services
MG766,Security & Protection Services,DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Security & Protection Services
MG821,Multimedia & Graphics Software,COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Multimedia & Graphics Software

These stocks were up 500% or more during the worst phase of bear market. This list does not include stocks which have merged or bought out.
AFAM,Almost Family Inc
AHN,Atc Healthcare Inc
ASCA,Ameristar Casinos Inc
BDY,Bradley Pharmaceuticals
BYI,Bally Technologies Inc
CBK,Christopher & Banks Corp
DYII,Dynacq Healthcare Inc
GMCR,Green Mountain Coffee Roasters
HW,Headwaters Inc
HWAY,Healthways Inc
IMA,Inverness Medical Tchnlg
KMX,Carmax Inc
KOSP,Kos Pharmaceuticals Inc
MGAM,Multimedia Games Inc
MOVI,Movie Gallery Inc
MSCC,Microsemi Corp
NG,Novagold Resources Inc
NPTH,Enpath Medical Inc
NVDA,NVIDIA Corporation
PNRA,Panera Bread Co Cl A
PPHM,Peregrine Pharmaceuticls
PRX,Par Pharmaceutical Co Inc
PSAI,Pediatric Services Am
SMD,Singing Machine
TARO,Taro Pharmaceutical Inds
TRR,Trc Companies Inc


So there are long opportunities to be found in such conditions. What you need is a systematic methodology and approach to find them. You need right tools/ scans and methods to find such opportunities. Above all you need a way to shut off the market noise.

Watchlist
ACLI,American Commercial Lines Inc
ADLR,Adolor Corporation
AE,Adams Resources & Energy
AKAM,Akamai Technologies Inc
ALY,Allis-Chalmers Energy Inc
AMKR,Amkor Technology Inc
ANAD,Anadigics Inc
ANDE,Andersons Inc (The)
AP,Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp
ARS,Aleris International Inc
ASPV,Aspreva Pharmaceuticals
ASTSF,Ase Test Limited Ord Shr
ATI,Allegheny Technologies
BFT,Bally Total Fit Hldg
BGC,General Cable Corp
BMD,Birch Mountain Resources Ltd
BTUI,Btu International Inc
BWNG,Broadwing Corp
CELG,Celgene Corp
CHAP,Chaparral Steel Company
CHDX,Chindex International Inc
CHIC,Charlotte Russe Hldg Inc
CMCO,Columbus Mckinnon Cp(Ny)
CPTS,Conceptus Inc
CTRN,Citi Trends Inc
DCEL,Dobson Communications A
DIL,Dyadic International Inc
DNR,Denbury Resources Ltd
DRQ,Dril-Quip Inc
DXPE,Dxp Enterprises Inc
EAGL,Egl Incorporated
ECOL,American Ecology Corp
EMIS,Emisphere Technologies
EUROD,EuroTrust A/S ADR
EZPW,Ezcorp Inc Cl A
FAL,Falconbridge Ltd
FMCN,Focus Media Holding Ltd ADR
FTI,Fmc Technologies
FTO,Frontier Oil Corp
FWLT,Foster Wheeler Ltd
GAIA,Gaiam Incorporated Cl A
GDI,Gardner Denver Inc
GI,Giant Industries Inc
GIGM,Gigamedia Limited
GLBL,Global Industries Ltd
GMTC,Gametech Internat Inc
GPIC,Gaming Partners Intl
GROW,U.S. Global Invest Inc A
GYMB,Gymboree Corp
HANS,Hansen Natural Corp
HOC,Holly Corp
HOM,Home Solutions Of America
HSR,Hi-Shear Technology Corp
IAAC,Internat Asset Holdg Cp
ICE,Intercontinental Exchange Inc
ICON,Iconix Brand Group
ICTG,Ict Group Inc
IFO,Infosonics
IIG,Imergent Inc
ILMN,Illumina Inc
IMCO,Impco Technologies Inc
IPII,Imperial Industries Inc
IPSU,Imperial Sugar Company
ISRG,Intuitive Surgical Inc
ITG,Investment Technology
JLL,Jones Lang Lasalle Inc
KFRC,Kforce.Com Inc
KKD,Krispy Kreme Doughnuts
KNOL,Knology Inc
KNOT,The Knot Inc
KNXA,Kenexa Corp
LCC,US Airways Group Inc
LDSH,Ladish Co Inc
LIFC,Lifecell Corporation
LMIA,Lmi Aerospace Inc
LTXX,Ltx Corp
LVS,Las Vegas Sands
MDR,Mcdermott Internat Inc
MED,Medifast Inc
MERX,Merix Corp
MGPI,Mgp Ingredients Inc
MICC,Millicom Intl Cellular Sa
MORN,Morningstar Inc
MTRX,Matrix Service Co
MWRK,Mothers Work Inc
NEU,Newmarket Corp
NGPS,Novatel Inc
NITE,Knight Capital Group Inc Cl A
NTG,Natco Group Incorporated
NTRI,NutriSystem Inc
OII,Oceaneering Internat
OYOG,Oyo Geospace Corp
PEIX,Pacific Ethanol Inc
PGS,Petroleum Geo-services Asa
PGWC,Pegasus Wireless Corp (NV)
PLLL,Parallel Petroleum Corp
PLXS,Plexus Corp
PSTA,Monterey Gourmet Foods Inc
QLTY,Quality Distribution
RADN,Radyne Comstream
RAIL,FreightCar America Inc
RBAK,Redback Networks Inc
RMIX,U.S. Concrete Inc
RNOW,Rightnow Technologies Inc
RTI,Rti Internat Metal Inc
SHOO,Steven Madden Ltd
SMDI,Sirenza Microdevices
SMSI,Smith Micro Software Inc
SNTO,Sento Corporation
SPN,Superior Energy Svcs Inc
STRL,Sterling Construction Comp Inc
SWIR,Sierra Wireless Inc
TACT,Transact Technologies
TFSM,24/7 Real Media Inc
TNL,Technitrol Inc
TRE,Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp
TRID,Trident Microsystems Inc
TRN,Trinity Industries Inc
TSCM,Thestreet.Com
TTES,T-3 Energy Services Inc
TTI,Tetra Technologies Inc
TWGP,Tower Grp Inc
TWTC,Time Warner Telecom Inc
TWTR,Tweeter Home Entertainmt
URGI,United Retail Group Inc
USG,Usg Corp
WFR,Memc Electronic Material
WIRE,Encore Wire Corp
WXS,Wright Express Corp
ZOLT,Zoltek Companies Inc
ZRAN,Zoran Corp
ZUMZ,Zumiez Inc
ZVXI,Zevex Internat Inc

Stocks with extreme volume




QQQQ,Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock ETF last had an extreme volume day 1463 days ago. SPY,SPDRs had extreme volume day 223 days ago. How much more selling is remaining?

I have a compilation of market bottoms from past many years. I leaf through it every week. It shows what was the move before market correction and what happened afterwards. Most of the time after such sell offs the market turns on a dime and just shoots up for many weeks. Constant study of such things help you to anticipate and react to such moves.

You can see Dow Bottoms from 1932 till 1982 here.

Based on the past patterns, I think the market will have a snap back rally in next few days. If you are short be careful. Before you realize what happened profits will vanish. Expect lots of buy programs to kick in.

CYB,Cybex Internat
DMC,Document Security Systems
EAG,Eagle Broadband Inc
EWO,iShares MSCI Austria Index Fund ETF
EWW,iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund ETF
EWZ,iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETFl
HNAB,Hana Biosciences Inc
MDV,Medivation Inc
QQQQ,Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock ETF
RLH,Red Lions Hotel Corp
SDA,Sadia S.A.
SPY,SPDRs S&P 500 Trust Series ETF

Keep your buy list ready

Quiet, weak markets are good to sell. They ordinarily develop into declining markets. But when a market has gone through the stages of quiet and weak to active and declining, then on semi-panic or panic, it should be bought freely.

Speculation As Fine Art by Dickson Watts

Victor Niederhoffer often quotes Henry Clews when it comes to market panic:

Henry Clews wrote in Twenty-Eight Years in Wall Street (1887):
But few gain sufficient experience in Wall Street to command success until they reach that period of life in which they have one foot in the grave. When this time comes, these old veterans of the Street usually spend long intervals of repose at their comfortable homes, and in times of panic, which recur sometimes oftener than once a year, these old fellows will be seen in Wall Street, hobbling down on their canes to their brokers’ offices.

Then they always buy good stocks to the extent of their bank balances, which they have been permitted to accumulate for just such an emergency. The panic usually rages until enough of these cash purchases of stock is made to afford a big “rake in.” When the panic has spent its force, these old fellows, who have been resting judiciously on their oars in expectation of the inevitable event, which usually returns with the regularity of the seasons, quickly realize, deposit their profits with their bankers, or the overplus thereof, after purchasing more real estate that is on the up grade, for permanent investment, and retire for another season to the quietude of their splendid homes and the bosoms of their happy families.

Fifty Years in Wall Street by Henry Clews

S&P says better time for market ahead.
S&P predicts that oil and inflation worries will decrease, growth will slow, and equity prices will move higher

Stocks up 50% or more in a month

DXPE,Dxp Enterprises Inc
IFO,Infosonics
MED,Medifast Inc
PGWC,Pegasus Wireless Corp (NV)
SCR--A,Sea Containers Cl A
ZOLT,Zoltek Companies Inc
A week ago,this list ad 30 stocks. So a strong bounce is likely in next couple of days. Some stocks which will bounce will be the beaten down ones. At the same time new sectors, new stocks should start emerging soon to take on the new leadership role.
These are some of the stocks showing good price action.

AGP,Amerigroup
BIDU,Baidu.com Inc
BKD,Brookdale Senior Living Inc
CSPLF,Canada Southern Petroleum Ltd
DXPE,Dxp Enterprises Inc
ELN,Elan Corp Plc
EUROD,EuroTrust A/S ADR
GROW,U.S. Global Invest Inc A
HANS,Hansen Natural Corp
IFO,Infosonics
JAS,Jo-ann Stores Inc
JOBS,51job Inc Ads
JSDA,Jones Soda Co
LMIA,Lmi Aerospace Inc
MED,Medifast Inc
MGRM,Monogram Biosciences Inc
MLIN,Micro Linear Corp
MOVI,Movie Gallery Inc
NCOG,Nco Group Inc
PSTA,Monterey Gourmet Foods Inc
REMX,Remedytemp Inc
SCR--A,Sea Containers Cl A
UFPT,Ufp Technologies Inc
VVUS,Vivus Inc

Stocks with extreme volume






CCL, Carnival Corp guides down and takes a tumble. It has been in down trend for some time. This might be the bottom offering potentially low risk entry if you are value oriented buyer.

NBIX, Neurocrine Biosciences had problem with getting its sleep drug approved. It is down 62% in a day. The biotech sector is always tricky sector to invest in because of such external risks.

HOM, Home Solutions Of America is one of my holdings. It just announced earnings. Keep a close eye on this for potential entry on pullback or if it forms a base. It is up around 846% for the year. These are the kind of stocks I like and my system tries to identify them early enough.

MED, Medifast Inc is another holding and had a recent good earnings announcement. It is up 460% for the year. There are many people who advocate not holding stocks close to earnings. It all depends on your entry price, risk tolerance and size of position. Above all confidence in your own trading system.

CCL,Carnival Corp
DOVP,Dov Pharmaceutical Inc
HOM,Home Solutions Of America
MED,Medifast Inc
NBIX,Neurocrine Biosciences
RHR,RMR Hospitality and Real Estate Fund

John C. Bogle Blog

John Bogle of Vanguard Mutual funds the pioneer of the Index has started a blog.
The Bogle Blog. Can you believe it? A few months ago I barely knew what on earth a "“blog"” was, and now here I am blogging. I'’m excited, however, about the opportunities this new website will offer me, and hope that what you find here keeps you coming back to check in. You'’ll notice that most of the site'’s sections include an area for comments, and I encourage you to share your thoughts, and even submit questions to the "“Ask Jack"” section of the site. I can'’t promise that my schedule will allow me to respond to everyone, but I'’ll certainly make every effort to make this as "“interactive"” an experience as possible. At the least, I hope that you'’ll consider what you find here to be interesting, thought-provoking, and, well, a "“certain trumpet."”

Greenback will fall, Armageddon will not follow

As everyone is focused on the dollar weakness currently, a contrary opinion like this is helpful.
Market reaction in the past week to the dollar'’s drop sharply suggests many investors buy this Great Dollar Death Spiral story. They shouldn'’t. Handled properly, with careful nurturing by the US and other central banks, the dollar'’s fall should prove to be not a trap door through which the world economy disappears, but a pleasantly upholstered springboard, propelling it to further sustained growth.
Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture muses about how something that should matter doesn't for the longest time . . . and then it suddenly does
I find it incredible that suddenly, the denial we have been living with for so long gets removed. The robust inflation has been denied, ignored for so long. Despite all the evidence, the price increases on ordinary goods, medical services, housing, insurance, all the while commodity prices run amuck has been overlooked, as if its irrelevant.

Then suddenly, it matters.

Meanwhile, we see Housing, the prime (domestic) driver of the economy for the past 4 years, rapidly cool -- and the market has yet to discover this as an issue. If the Housing slowdown continues, expect Consumer spending in Q3 to be very soft. Target showed revenue growth of 12%, but missed earnings estimates due to increased costs -- (but there's no inflation). Hey, we still have a full 6 months before we have to start thinking about Xmas spending yet -- that could be way off also, if present trends accelerate.

It may be too early to "officially" say the end of this cyclical Bull market is upon us, but the past few days is certainly a warning shot across the market's bow.

Most markets, including India may correct by 30%: Faber

Marc Faber has a good track record on global investment trends and forecasted the commodity uptrend much before anyone else.
Investment Guru Marc Faber expects most markets including India to see a 30% correction, which is likely in both equities and commodities. He adds that the commodities complex is still attractive from the long-term view. Faber feels that industrial commodities may not make fresh highs in the near-term.

Faber believes that not much has changed but the markets became over-extended in the last ten days with some industrial commodities going up vertically. So the market was terribly overbought and now we have a setback but that is for the time being.

Bringing home the dollars to mama

Global asset relocation is happening. As everybody rushes for exit, the panic grows. When the dust settles down few leveraged hedge funds would be bust.
US investors are rushing for exits in risky markets across the world, accelerating an ugly sell-off in Turkey, Indonesia, India, Russia, and Brazil.
The sudden repatriation of funds back to America triggered a rebound in the dollar yesterday, halting the sharp slide that has transfixed financial markets over the past week.
"Risk aversion is taking over the show," said David Bloom, a currency expert at HSBC.
"Americans are pulling their money off the table and bringing it back home to mama. We saw the same repatriation after the 1987 crash, causing the dollar to rally for two or three days."
The dollar recovery helped settle Wall Street yesterday after two sessions of heavy losses, but the rout across riskier markets appeared to be gathering speed.
The Istanbul stock market has crashed 9pc over the past two trading days, touching a one-year low. The lira is down 15pc in a week. Indonesia's central bank stepped in yesterday to support the crumbling rupiah as panic swept the country. The Jakarta stock exchange was down 6.3pc.
"There's a wipe-out across many Asian currencies. People are taking their money out," said Shahab Jalinoos, a strategist at ABN Amro.
The epidemic even spread to Russia - now flush with oil - where the bourse tumbled 5pc yesterday.
Analysts said the global sell-off was a repeat of the "carry-trade" unwinding that hit Iceland, New Zealand, and Hungary in April, but now seems to be spreading far wider.


You can see this more clearly on following World Market Direction component list I monitor daily. Or you can monitor it here

AORD-X,Sydney All Ordinaries Index
EWA,iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund ETF
EWC,iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund ETF
EWD,iShares MSCI Sweden Index Fund ETF
EWG,iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF
EWH,iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund ETF
EWI,iShares MSCI Italy Index Fund ETF
EWJ,iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund ETF
EWK,iShares MSCI Belgium Index Fund ETF
EWL,iShares MSCI Switzerland Index Fund ETF
EWM,iShares MSCI Malaysia Index Fund ETF
EWN,iShares MSCI Netherlands Index Fund ETF
EWO,iShares MSCI Austria Index Fund ETF
EWP,iShares MSCI Spain Index Fund ETF
EWQ,iShares MSCI France Index Fund ETF
EWS,iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund ETF
EWT,iShares MSCI Taiwan Index Fund ETF
EWU,iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index Fund ETF
EWW,iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund ETF
EWY,iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund ETF
EWZ,iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETF
EZA,iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund ETF
FDAC-X,Frankfurt Dax Index
FTSE-X,London Ftse-100 Index
MXY--X,Mexico Index
NIKI-X,Tokyo Nikkei Index
PCAC-X,Paris CAC-40 Index
SING-X,Singapore Straits Index

Stocks up 50% or more in a month

This list continues to shrink rapidly. So expect a bounce in overall market. The Dow Jones Index will make a push to new high. The allure and magnetic effect of it is too great for it to not make it to that number.

HANS,Hansen Natural Corp continues its wild ride. This looks like a classic short squeeze. The stock has very low float (22.762 million shares outstanding).
Keep an eye on MED,Medifast Inc, it has had excellent EPS, sales growth and price growth. I have a small position in it(entered around 8 )and looking to add more if it continues to act well. It needs to form a base here for fresh entry.


HANS,Hansen Natural Corp
IFO,Infosonics
LBY,Libbey Inc
MED,Medifast Inc
PGWC,Pegasus Wireless Corp (NV)
SCR--A,Sea Containers Cl A
TZOO,Travelzoo Inc

Stocks with extreme volume

The carnage in metal continues. Out of the 17 stocks in this list 8 are in the mining and metal category: TIE, GG, GLG, BHP, TGB, NXG, IVN, EGI. This group may have seen its best days and may not see its recent highs again for months.



The danger of these kind of corrections/tops in companies like TIE,Titanium Metals Corp, GG,Goldcorp Inc and, GLG,Glamis Gold Ltd is that this correction is happening after long moves where these shares have seen substantial price growth so this can quickly turn in to a major debacle .
Look at ERS, Empire Resources, Inc.. After a 1000 % move in a year it had a quick drop recently and it just keeps going down. It also had lowers earnings this quarter. So in a mater of 8 days it has been cut in to half. So if you have position in the metals group you should be out of them by now.

What is different about this market correction is that it is global, all markets are going down. Look at the country and regional ETFs appearing in this list. Otherwise most corrections are individual market specific or sector specific. This kind of action also increases risk for good stocks like IFO,Infosonics, which had excellent EPS and sales growth but reversed sharply on extreme volume.


ARWR,Arrowhead Research Corp
BHP,BHP Billiton Ltd
EGI,Entree Gold Inc
ESCL,Escala Group Inc
EWZ,iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETF
GG,Goldcorp Inc
GLG,Glamis Gold Ltd
HGT,Hugoton Royalty Trust
IAU,iShares COMEX Gold Trust ETF
IF,Indonesia Fund
IFO,Infosonics
ILF,iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund ETF
IVN,Ivanhoe Mines Ltd
NXG,Northgate Minerals Corp
PBW,PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy Porfolio ETF
TGB,Taseko Mines Ltd
TIE,Titanium Metals Corp New

Not in a hurry

Posted on 5/15/2006
The market seems to be stabilizing a bit today, but I am in no hurry to put capital to work immediately. I expect one more leg down. I see lot of biotechs attracting some buy interest, but not many of them are in my list and do not meet my buy criteria. I am currently watching around 50 stocks for entry once the market stabilizes and once I have enough confidence about the next market move.
Faced with such market conditions, the most important thing I have learned over the years is not to panic and keep your nerves. With market rallying for long period without significant correction, I was expecting and anticipating a correction. Crashes and corrections are good for my style of trading, as they wash away excess speculation and set us up for the next bull move. If you protect your capital, there is always better opportunity somewhere in future.

Prepare for a sudden swing to pessimism

This article from The Times of UK, argues that growth in both Europe and USA is headed lower. It also identifies the problem in current market dynamics. A excellent read.



The problem in America is the other way round. The Federal Reserve understands economic reality but the markets refuse to believe it. There is a widespread view on Wall Street that the US economy is growing strongly and has shaken off the effects of 5 per cent interest rates and the soaring oil price. It is now clear, however, that the post-Katrina rebound that boosted first-quarter growth figures was just that — a one-off bounce lasting a month or two. Last Friday, the University of Michigan consumer confidence survery revealed the biggest decline in consumer expectations in its 30-year record, the US trade figures showed an abrupt slowdown in imports and retail sales figures suggested that higher petrol prices were now crowding out virtually all consumption growth.

Between them, these statistics paint a clear picture of the US economy slowing down. This slowdown should not lead to outright recession because the Federal Reserve Board will eventually cut interest rates to support the US housing market and revive consumer demand. For the time being, however, the bias in US monetary policy must remain towards monetary tightening, since inflation is creeping upwards, commodity prices are flying and the markets refuse to believe that a slowdown is on the way.

Once investors accept the slowdown story, commodity prices will collapse, inflation will stabilise and the Fed will be free to consider a policy of stimulating US demand. But this will be impossible as long as the world puts its faith in ebullient stock markets and metal prices, rather than the sober message from economic statistics. In the end, reality will prevail over expectations. But first investors and businesses should prepare to ride a psychological roller-coaster from over-optimism to pessimism and then back again.

Stocks up 50% or more in a month

There are sharks in water. The best option is to stay out till the market stabilizes. But in the meanwhile be ready with your buy list. Soon there will be a very good buying opportunity.
Some sectors like biotechs and drugs are showing early signs of next move.

CSPLF,Canada Southern Petroleum Ltd
DIL,Dyadic International Inc
DXPE,Dxp Enterprises Inc
GIGM,Gigamedia Limited
IFO,Infosonics
LBY,Libbey Inc
MGPI,Mgp Ingredients Inc
PGWC,Pegasus Wireless Corp (NV)
SCR--A,Sea Containers Cl A
TSCM,Thestreet.Com
TTES,T-3 Energy Services Inc
TZOO,Travelzoo Inc
ZOLT,Zoltek Companies Inc

Stocks with extreme volume

There is clearly a panic in the market. Where is the bulk of volume movers concentrated- metals. Now what about the of repeated thesis, when there is panic you should buy gold! Market seldom works that way. The metals were in speculative frenzy for sometime and are experiencing a serious correction now along with rest of the market.


TIE,Titanium Metals Corp had a second consecutive high volume day. It had a dream run since its last 2:1 split. It had a more than doubled in a quarter. As I said few weeks ago, there was potential trouble ahead for this stock, as there was another split scheduled for this month. So this one had the warning coming.


GG,Goldcorp Inc is another one which is having high volume turnover. It had a extreme volume day just 9 days ago. This stock has gone up from 13 to around 40 in a year.
GLD,StreetTRACKS Gold Shares ETF is another speculative favorite. The NYT last week featured a gold investor with some wild theories and wild predictions about where gold is headed.
With gold trading at$683.80 an ounce, a 25-year high, it's a good time to be a gold bug like Mr. Sinclair, especially if, like him, you own a gold exploration company (his is in Tanzania) and were a buyer when the metal sank as low as $250 an ounce in 2001. Now Wall Street, traditionally a laggard when it comes to making the investment case for gold, has jumped on Mr. Sinclair's bandwagon.

His wild theory:
Indeed, his central thesis is that Goldman Sachs and other banks have conspired to keep a cap on the price via short sales to back the government's strong-dollar policy, especially while a former Goldman senior partner, Robert E. Rubin, was Treasury secretary in the late 1990's — is far-fetched.

With the price of gold surging, Mr. Murphy is convinced that Goldman Sachs, J. P. Morgan and others are frantically buying now to cover for the gold they sold short over the years. Goldman Sachs and J. P. Morgan declined to comment about their gold trading positions or strategies.

"What a day," Mr. Murphy said one day last week as gold broke through $670. Goldman Sachs and J. P. Morgan were big buyers that day on Comex, the division of the New York Mercantile Exchange where gold contracts trade. Sputtering at the joy of it all, Mr. Murphy could well have been a prospector hitting the Mother Lode. "These guys are short, and they are panicking to get out of their positions," he said. "They are sweating bullets, and it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys."

When New York Times put these kind of whackos on its pages, you should be clearly worried about the gold market direction.
The other significant thing in this list is the country/ sector funds taking a big tumble on high volume like the CEE,The Central Europe & Russia Fd , IFN,India Fund PWT ,PowerShares Dynamic Small Cap Growth Portfolio ETF.


CEE,The Central Europe & Russia Fd
GG,Goldcorp Inc
GLD,streetTRACKS Gold Shares ETF
IFN,India Fund
PWT,PowerShares Dynamic Small Cap Growth Portfolio ETF
QRCP,Quest Resource Corp
RNE,Morgan Stan Dw Eastrn Eu
SBKC,Security Bank Corp Ga
THLD,Threshold Pharmaceuticals
TIE,Titanium Metals Corp New
XHB,SPDRs Homebuilders ETF
XNN,Xenonics Holdings Inc

Stocks with extreme volume

The metal stocks again make an appearance of this list. Particularly note TIE,Titanium Metals Corp and RTI,Rti Internat Metal Inc. Both TIE and RTI have had long runs and the recent high volume turnover may be harbinger of trouble.
There are many academic studies about impact of high volume turnover on subsequent stock price behavior. Like the one below:
The idea that extreme trading activity contains information about the future evolution of stock prices is investigated. We find that stocks experiencing unusually high (low) trading volume over a day or a week tend to appreciate (depreciate) over the course of the following month. We argue that this "high-volume return premium" is consistent with the idea that shocks in the trading activity of a stock affect its visibility, and in turn the subsequent demand and price for that stock. Return autocorrelations, firm announcements, market risk, and liquidity do not seem to explain our results.


One of the interesting stock in this list is MOVI,Movie Gallery Inc.


This stock had a extreme volume day 57 days ago on 15th March. I put it on watchlist since then (as it was below 5 at that time). Now one of the other reason this stock attracted my attention was because many years ago I owned it. When the market was tanking in 2001, this stock along with HLWY were outperforming the market going up 800 % plus. A year or so ago these two companies merged, leading to the slide in this stock.

CSPLF,Canada Southern Petroleum Ltd
ESCL,Escala Group Inc
EWM,iShares MSCI Malaysia Index Fund ETF
EZM,EuroZinc Mining Corp
GLD,streetTRACKS Gold Shares ETF
JSDA,Jones Soda Co
LBTYA,Liberty Global Inc Class A
MGPI,Mgp Ingredients Inc
MOVI,Movie Gallery Inc
RTI,Rti Internat Metal Inc
SSRI,Silver Standard Resource
TGB,Taseko Mines Ltd
TIE,Titanium Metals Corp New

Stocks up 50% or more in a month

What a difference a day makes. The list shrank back to 18 in a day. In overall market the momentum is cyclical. A market correction is good opportunity and it sets up next set of stocks for move higher. After a few days a new set of stocks will become new momentum stars.
I have got many emails asking which stock will be next on this list. I have no super secret formula to it. I do not get a delivery of Wall Street Journal a month in advance.
Momentum is highest at extreme ends. If you look at the list carefully today, you will notice around 70% of the stocks on this list had already doubled before they made their 50% plus move. Stocks which have been moving up at some stage start moving at faster rates and make a run. So if you want to focus on next stock likely to make 50% plus move focus on stocks which have doubled already.
Now if you add a % from recent high filter you will further reduce the universe. Only around 10% of stocks qualify that criteria. Now given 600 stocks it is easier to manage. If you want to go further you can look at things like shares outstanding, earnings growth, sales growth to further narrow the list to around 300. This gives a good enough list to outperform the market and on a daily basis you get enough candidates to put capital to work.
If you do not want to do all that work yourself, there is a shortcut. On Thursdays, Investors Business Daily runs a table of stocks with the Top 200 Composite Ratings and one with the Bottom 200 Composite Ratings. That list attracts little attention compared to the Investors Business Daily top 100 list. You can do your own research to find out how the stocks in it perform.
The key is to be consistent with a approach. The market offers many temptation but you have to find what works for you. This works for me because I have worked on fine tuning it for years. It may not work for everyone. But that is not a problem, there are many ways to make money in the market.

The commodities sector will probably have a big correction now because everyone is noticing it. The Financial Times has a story about mad scramble for commodities traders.
The hottest commodity in the booming commodities markets would seem to be the traders themselves.
So great is the scramble to strengthen once-neglected commodity trading desks and so scarce is the top talent that experienced traders are now commanding seven-figure sign-on fees and bonuses to match.
Industry executives said senior energy traders were receiving sign-on fees of more than $2m (€1.5m) in some cases. Two years ago sign-on fees were unheard of in the energy market. Commodity traders were largely unwanted during the 1990s and in the immediate aftermath of the Enron collapse and banks trained few new staff in their commodity trading divisions.


DXPE,Dxp Enterprises Inc
GIGM,Gigamedia Limited
IFO,Infosonics
LBY,Libbey Inc
LEA,Lear Corp
MDTL,Medis Technologies Ltd
MGPI,Mgp Ingredients Inc
NTRI,NutriSystem Inc
PEIX,Pacific Ethanol Inc
PGWC,Pegasus Wireless Corp (NV)
SCR--A,Sea Containers Cl A
TACT,Transact Technologies
TIE,Titanium Metals Corp New
TSCM,Thestreet.Com
TTES,T-3 Energy Services Inc
TZOO,Travelzoo Inc
ZOLT,Zoltek Companies Inc
ZVXI,Zevex Internat Inc
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Hansen Natural Corp (HANS) and Goldman Sachs

Posted on 5/11/2006


The analyst at Golman Sachs upgraded the stock Hanse Natural Corp (HANS) yesterday and set a price target of 230 on it.That resulted in climax run and today a reversal. Now after two days of wild frenzy the stock is down 15 points as of now.
The best stocks are the ones where there is no analyst coverage and then they show exceptional growth. When the analyst arrive most of the fun is over.

Stocks up 50% or more in a month

I feel we are headed for a market correction. How do I know? Because this list has expanded significantly in last couple of days. Sometime back it had 15-20 stocks for many days, now today it has 30 stocks. I have noticed that when the number of stocks on this list expands rapidly, a market correction is highly probable. I do not trade on such information. I am more interested in individual stock behavior.


AP,Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp
BBC,Bodisen Biotech Inc
BIDU,Baidu.com Inc
DIL,Dyadic International Inc
DXPE,Dxp Enterprises Inc
GIGM,Gigamedia Limited
GROW,U.S. Global Invest Inc A
HANS,Hansen Natural Corp
HSR,Hi-Shear Technology Corp
IFO,Infosonics
LBY,Libbey Inc
LEA,Lear Corp
MDTL,Medis Technologies Ltd
MED,Medifast Inc
MGPI,Mgp Ingredients Inc
NTRI,NutriSystem Inc
PEIX,Pacific Ethanol Inc
PGWC,Pegasus Wireless Corp (NV)
SCR--A,Sea Containers Cl A
SHOO,Steven Madden Ltd
SWIR,Sierra Wireless Inc
TACT,Transact Technologies
TBV,Tiens Biotech Group USA Inc
TGIS,Thomas Group Inc
TIE,Titanium Metals Corp New
TSCM,Thestreet.Com
TTES,T-3 Energy Services Inc
TZOO,Travelzoo Inc
ZOLT,Zoltek Companies Inc
ZVXI,Zevex Internat Inc

Stocks With Extreme Volume


FWLT,Foster Wheeler Ltd, is a stock which I had owned some time back and made good money on it. Yesterday I made some quick trade on it as it showed up on my scan after earnings. Unfortunately it retraced much of its morning move.
It showed up on the extreme volume scan 314 days ago. When I looked at its financial, they looked horrible, but it had just emerged out of bankruptcy.
Companies emerging out of bankruptcies are sometime very good plays and I always keep an eye on such companies.If the market reacts favorably to such companies, they can be good investment, I have found invariably they land up in this scan, as the big players make investment in them and the footprints are clear to read.

BOFL,Bancshares Of Florida Inc
CUP,Peru Copper Inc
ESCL,Escala Group Inc
EZM,EuroZinc Mining Corp
FWLT,Foster Wheeler Ltd
GLE,Glencairn Gold Corp
IRIS,Iris International Inc
MFLX,Multi-fineline Electronix Inc
PDRT,Particle Drilling Technologies Inc
PVH,Phillips-Van Heusen Corp
RTI,Rti Internat Metal Inc
SGK,Schawk Inc
TBV,Tiens Biotech Group USA Inc
TELN,Telenor Asa

Stocks up 50% or more in a month

I own a bunch of stocks from this list, many of them bought months before they appeared on this list.

Take for example HOM,Home Solutions Of America, a stock which I have owned for months. It first appeared in my exceptional earnings and sales pool over 7-8 months ago. I bought it once it crossed the price of 5 some months ago.

On a daily basis I monitor only around 300 stocks meeting the criteria of exceptional sales, earnings and price growth. Around 70% of the stocks on the 50% or more a month list are from this universe. With over 8000 stocks trading daily, reducing your universe to a more manageable number is one of the key to profitable trading.
More about why monitor this list daily here.


Around
ACSEF,A.C.S. Electronics Ltd
AP,Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp
ARTW,Art's-Way Manufacturing
DIL,Dyadic International Inc
DXPE,Dxp Enterprises Inc
GIGM,Gigamedia Limited
HOM,Home Solutions Of America
IDSA,Industrial Svcs Of Amer
IFO,Infosonics
LBY,Libbey Inc
LEA,Lear Corp
MDTL,Medis Technologies Ltd
MED,Medifast Inc
MGPI,Mgp Ingredients Inc
NTRI,NutriSystem Inc
PGWC,Pegasus Wireless Corp (NV)
SCR--A,Sea Containers Cl A
SWIR,Sierra Wireless Inc
TACT,Transact Technologies
TGIS,Thomas Group Inc
TIE,Titanium Metals Corp New
TSCM,Thestreet.Com
TTES,T-3 Energy Services Inc
TZOO,Travelzoo Inc
ZVXI,Zevex Internat Inc

Stocks With Extreme Volume

May 10 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose to $8,000 a ton for the first time as a mine closure in Mexico fueled speculation among investment funds that returns from metals will keep outpacing stocks and bonds.

Gold also rose to a 25-year high, platinum and zinc were at records and aluminum climbed above $3,000 for a second day. Copper has gained as labor disputes and production threats from Mexico to Indonesia have dented global metal stockpiles. Grupo Mexico SA, the world's seventh-largest copper miner, said today it shut the San Martin mine as a strike deepened concern about safety.

``It's hard to see how the momentum can stop at this moment,'' said Roy Carson, a London-based trader at Triland Metals Ltd., which trades on the floor of the London Metal Exchange, the world's biggest metals bourse. ``Continued speculative buying'' is stoking prices.

If you have been tracking this list you would have seen, many of these metal stocks have been on this list much before the media discovered them. AUY,Yamana Gold Inc, had a Extreme volume day 148 days ago on 12th December 2005. It has doubled since then.



AIRM,Air Methods Corp
AUY,Yamana Gold Inc
CGR,Claude Resources Inc
DBC,DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund ETF
DIL,Dyadic International Inc
ESCL,Escala Group Inc
EZM,EuroZinc Mining Corp
FLR,Fluor Corp (New)
GPRE,Green Plains Renewable Energy
GRZ,Gold Reserve Inc
HWKN,Hawkins Chemical Inc
IEO, iShares Dow Jones US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index Fund ETF
IHF,iShares Dow Jones US Health Care Providers Index Fund ETF
NMHC,National Med Hlth Card
TMY,Transmeridian Exploration Inc
UFPT,Ufp Technologies Inc
WRNC,Warnaco Group Inc (the)

Earnings trend

Posted on 5/09/2006
If you want to get a good idea of what is doing well in the realm of earnings expectations, think of the 1890'’s, not the 1990'’s. The picture might be termed the revenge of the rustbelt.

The key trends in earnings so far as per Zacks:
  • Positive surprises outnumber negative by 4:1
  • So far the median year-over-year growth rate reported is 12.8%, with Energy (54.4%) having the highest growth and Consumer Staples (1.6%) having the lowest.
  • Material Sector has the most earnings revisions
  • Technology and health care are lagging.

Stocks up 50% or more in a month

ACSEF,A.C.S. Electronics Ltd
AP,Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp
ARTW,Art's-Way Manufacturing
DXPE,Dxp Enterprises Inc
GIGM,Gigamedia Limited
HOM,Home Solutions Of America
IDSA,Industrial Svcs Of Amer
LBY,Libbey Inc
LEA,Lear Corp
MED,Medifast Inc
MGPI,Mgp Ingredients Inc
NTRI,NutriSystem Inc
PGWC,Pegasus Wireless Corp (NV)
SCR--A,Sea Containers Cl A
SWIR,Sierra Wireless Inc
TACT,Transact Technologies
TGIS,Thomas Group Inc
TIE,Titanium Metals Corp New
TSCM,Thestreet.Com
TTES,T-3 Energy Services Inc
TZOO,Travelzoo Inc
WPSC,Wheeling-pittsburgh Corp
ZVXI,Zevex Internat Inc