5/23/2006

Ready for the next market move

When the US markets sneeze, others catch cold. A policy decision in USA about interest rates is playing havoc with the emerging markets. International diversification of your portfolio was the latest buzz for many investment advisors and portfolio managers. The theory was that the US has structural problems with its deficit and so the international markets were safe heaven. Another theme which people had digested and started believing in was commodities. Everyone has discovered that when the market tumbles there are no safe heavens.

GS, Goldman Sachs Group Inc pushed for the BRIC economies in 2003 and they were right about it. But now these market have taken big hits. The suddenness and speed of the decline has caught many people in wrong position.

A 10% down move in market after a long move is just a healthy correction. Now Goldman Sachs analyst are calling this correction a result of " Bernanke Bind". The hypothesis is that he is underestimating the risk of inflation. Plus he has the credibility problem after his famous fling with Maria Bartiromo.


Now that everyone is convinced crash is just a matter of time, the market will have its own agenda and will not follow the anticipated script. So a tradeable bounce is the next likely move. I am nibbling at some longs and all ready with my buylist once the market tips it hand this week.

When the market bounces back new themes will emerge. Some stocks in beaten down technology sector look attractive and have not been dented by the correction. Keep an eye on GOOG and AAPL


Stocks up 50% or more in a month

IFO,Infosonics
LBY,Libbey Inc
MED,Medifast Inc

Stocks down 50% or more in a month

EDAP,Edap Tms Sa Adr
ERS,Empire Resources
ESCL,Escala Group Inc
FORD,Forward Industries Inc
NBIX,Neurocrine Biosciences
NMHC,National Med Hlth Card

Stock with all time high volume
ARWR,Arrowhead Research Corp
BWCF,Bwc Financial Corp
CORE,Core-Mark Holding Company Inc
CURN,Curon Medical Inc
EEM,iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF
EWT,iShares MSCI Taiwan Index Fund ETF
EWW,iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund ETF
EWY,iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund ETF
EWZ,iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETF
FXI,iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund ETF
GGY,Compagnie Generale De Ge
IFN,India Fund
ILF,iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund ETF
ITU,Banco Itau S A Adr
JAMS,Jameson Inns Inc
MTU,Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc
TRID,Trident Microsystems Inc

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