5/18/2006

Babak at Tradersnarrative has a good analysis of current market situation.
Here'’s another statistic that will blow your mind: out of all the thousands of stocks out there, less than a third have managed to close up for the day in the past five consecutive days. This has happened at market bottoms like Sept 2001, October 2002 and May 2004. But before you get excited, this sort of pattern also has a history of presaging market drops (like 1987).

My conclusion? I thought you'’d never ask. If you had short exposure, (congratulations! but…) this is the time to think about exit targets and adjusting your stops lower. It is not the time to be pressing shorts or initiating new short positions. We may have another whoosh down but the probability now points more to a rally. I would be searching here for potential long setups. I think we'’re going to have so many soon that it'’ll make you dizzy to choose from amongst them.

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