11/30/2009
Thirty four fastest moving stocks
11/27/2009
24 weakest stocks
35 stocks with momentum
Pre thinking can give you a edge
Plan for a possible ambush on Friday or Monday. Friday will be again a light volume session. | Possibility of weakness on Monday should be seriously thought off. It may not materialise , but plan for all possibilities. |
What is your trading plan for the rest of the day | |
What method is your primary focus till EOD | |
continued.................... |
11/25/2009
4 IPO worth watching
- DRWI: Canadian telecom equipment maker is up on upgrade. Should hit 10 if it follows through.
- ZSTN: Chinese cable tv equipment provider. Has 99 eps rating. Recent eps growth rate is 100% and sales growth is 88%. Can possibly hit 9 if it follows through.
- CEU: Chinese education sector play with 99 eps rating. This is a bit volatile.
- TRIT: Chinese water supply play.Has doubled since IPO day trading price.
DSW Inc. (DSW) might be headed to 25
- Q3 EPS $0.60 vs est $0.46
- Q3 revenue $444.6 mln vs est $424.6 mln
- Q3 same-store sales up 8.7 pct
- Raises FY EPS view by 20 cents to $0.90 to $1
How To Trade EarningsHow to trade earnings Part2
How to trade earnings Part3
Earnings and Bulkowski
Improving odds in earnings breakoutEarnings Season- Time to be very careful...
Earnings and Dan Zanger
Earning Surprise System for $1495
Trading Earnings Breakouts
Earnings Acceleration- Long Term Impact
Trading Earnings Breakout -Part1
Trading Earnings Breakouts -Part2
Trading Earnings Breakouts -Part3
16 pullbacks worth watching
32 stocks top ranked by momentum
Stocks to watch are highlighted in green
AIXG
BONT
CAAS
CYD
EWBC
FSYS
GAP
GY
HGSI
HL
HOLI
HPJ
IO
KFN
KGN
LNY
MED
NANO
NLST
PAP
REV
RINO
SCSS
SMTL
SNIC
SVM
THM
TRGT
TSTC
UFS
USEG
XRA
11/24/2009
Six stocks on the move post earnings
- MDT: Tops estimate and guides up
- ADI: beats street estimates
- DLTR: posts higher profits
- NUAN: Beats Street views
- CBRL: Beats estimate and guides up
- DSW: Beats street views
8 momentum stocks to watch
- scss: This stock is having a pullback post recent earnings surprise.
- caas: same here. Recent earnings wee excellent. Chinese stocks tend to make big moves in short period of time.
- cyd: Another Chinese stock with recent triple digit earnings
- tstc: Chinese stock with recent triple digit earnings.
- fsys: had a recent big earnings surprise.
- RINO: Chinese stock with recent earnings surprise. This is currently a open position. So looking to add to it.
- KFN: low volume pullback
- hgsi: Again a pullback post recent earnings.
11/23/2009
Kkirkland Inc (KIRK) : the power of earnings surprise
How To Trade Earnings
How to trade earnings Part2
How to trade earnings Part3
Earnings and Bulkowski
Improving odds in earnings breakout
Earnings Season- Time to be very careful...
Earnings and Dan Zanger
Earning Surprise System for $1495
Trading Earnings Breakouts
Earnings Acceleration- Long Term Impact
Trading Earnings Breakout -Part1
Trading Earnings Breakouts -Part2
Trading Earnings Breakouts -Part3
Netlist is one of the top momentum stock currently
11/20/2009
30 weakest stocks in the market currently
Seven abilities you need to be successful trader
Ability to develop a well defined end to end method | Momentum Trend mean reversion value growth stat patterns Forensic analysis Arbitrage These are the basic approaches used in most methods. |
Ability to stick to the method for sustained period of time | Buffett has been using same method for his life Ed Seykota has been a trend follower for life One of the big problem for most new traders is inability to follow a method for long stretch. They change method every week or every time there is a change in market character. You can improve upon your basic method and fine tune it. But unless you stick to it for a long stretch you never acquire the confidence in it or understand the nuances of it. As a beginner you should explore wide variety of approaches but once you develop a approach stick to it for full market cycle. |
Ability to survive learning curve | Most new traders run out of their small stake before they can find a profitable method or give up. |
Ability to filter environmental noise and not get affected by it | Trading environment is extremely noisy. If you are a big consumer of media you will find all kinds of contrary views, opinions, propaganda, commercial pitches and so on. You must understand that the requirement for anyone to appear on TV is that he/she must have ability to persuade. Mass media is a persuasion driven media. Everyone has agenda. They want to influence your mind. |
Ability to persevere | There are good times, there are bad times in trading you need an ability to persist and overcome obstacles. |
Ability to analyse and overcome your own psychological issues | Trading is difficult because it involves emotions. You need to have a ability to correctly diagnose your own psychological problems and tendencies and be able to guide yourself to overcome them. If you visit a psychologist what tools do they use. Unless you have a clinical psychological problem requiring drug therapy all that psychologist use are words and listening skills. |
Ability to develop these abilities on your own | The right word for it is self efficacy beliefs. Self-efficacy is a person’s belief in his or her ability to succeed in a particular situation. Self-efficacy is the most important thing if you want to be a full time trader. If you have that then all other things are manageable or you will find solutions to all your problem. Perceived self-efficacy is concerned with people's beliefs in their capabilities to exercise control over their own functioning and over events that affect their lives. Beliefs in personal efficacy affect life choices, level of motivation, quality of functioning, resilience to adversity and vulnerability to stress and depression. People's beliefs in their efficacy are developed by four main sources of influence. They include mastery experiences, seeing people similar to oneself manage task demands successfully, social persuasion that one has the capabilities to succeed in given activities, and inferences from somatic and emotional states indicative of personal strengths and vulnerabilities. Ordinary realities are strewn with impediments, adversities, setbacks, frustrations and inequities. People must, therefore, have a robust sense of efficacy to sustain the perseverant effort needed to succeed. Succeeding periods of life present new types of competency demands requiring further development of personal efficacy for successful functioning. The nature and scope of perceived self-efficacy undergo changes throughout the course of the lifespan. |
- Trading Psychology and market weakness
- How to build a good foundation for profitable trading
- Trading psychology: if you are not prepared you will be surprized
- Trading Psychology: This ahead of the curve
- How to develop a disciplined mind part 1
- Psychological change is discomforting
- Getting in to right mind frame for trading today
- Trading psychology will be the focus for next one year
36 stock with momentum for Friday
11/19/2009
The key to trading success
We all trade our "beliefs". My basic belief is that methodology trumps the market. The market is a unknown variable, it does its own thing, you cannot control it. It is full of surprises, is ever changing, is often unpredictable, it offers too many choices, and so on. So market direction is not under my control. But what methods to use to extract profits from the market are under my control. If I do a very good job of controlling what I can control then there is a profit opportunity in the market to exploit.
- What time frames to trade (trade frequency)
- Day trade
- swing trade
- position trade
- macro trade
It is your choice as to which time frame to trade. This is a very critical decision and it dictates your rest of the trading mix elements. If supposing you decide to be a day trader, the entry, exit, risk strategies and market you decide to trade are very different. For the Working People site my strategy is to Position Trade and hold trades for long term. That means I have to look at completely different kind of stocks when looking at making a recommendation on that site. My stops and risk management strategy is different.Unless you are clear about what time frame you want to trade you will be confused and in Brownian motion. If you have full time job , can you realistically trade on daily or swing time frame?. You can try but it will be very difficult. If you are day trader, you will find holding positions for longer duration very difficult. It is difficult to switch time frame. If your mindset is capturing 25 cents to 50 cents move, trying to capture 20 to 50% move is different game. Only very experienced traders can do it. If you are beginner, in the process of trying to do both you would get more confused. Day traders typically risk much larger amount of their capital on a single trade. So for them liquidity is critical. If you are day trader you need to understand the micro structure of the market and the motivations of major players in it very well. You have to continously update your understanding of the micro structure as strategies and technology changes. If you decide to be day trader the kind of databases, news sources, and other feed services and software is very different from someone wanting to swing trade. - What markets to trade (equity selection)
- equity
- growth
- momentum
- value
- technical analysis
- futures
- options
- currencies
- etf
Once you decide your trading time frame then which market to trade becomes a critical decision. Supposing you want to trade the daily time frame then the futures market are better than stock. They have high liquidity and offer high leverage. So many day traders focus on them.Each market has its own peculiarity. It takes months or years to perfect strategy in most markets. The reason I trade equities is because in stock markets there are every year situations where some stocks will make very big moves. Moves of 1000% plus can happen in the markets. ETF cannot have those kinds of moves. That is the reason I do not focus on them.I do once in a while trade futures and working on developing strategies on both futures and currencies market and that is one of my focus areas for next year. But I have definite edge in equities and so I focus on them.Within stocks I primarily focus on growth and momentum. Why because growth and momentum stocks historically makes biggest moves on shorter time frames. I have spent significant efforts in understanding these two kinds of stocks and very confident of my methods and understanding. - equity
- When, where, and how to enter them (entry selection)
- When to enter at open or after open etc
- How to enter : market order, limit order, basket order etc
- where to enter: channel break, pullbacks, breakouts of support, at resistance etc
- When , where , and how to exit them (exit selection)
- How to manage risk (risk management)
how much to risk per trade
All these decisions are under a traders control. These are the variables you need to work with to design a profitable method. This is where a trader should spend bulk of his time. If you do a good job of controlling what is under your control then you will be in charge of your trading and the market will not be. You should focus your area of study on these controllable variables. People have studied various entry strategies, various exit strategies, various stop strategies , various risk management strategies. What works and why on these controllable variables is easily available and is in public domain.where to put stopshow and when to use marginThis is the basics of trading. If you master this then you can apply the same principle to any market and market time frame.
The profit opportunity is in the market if you get the mix of above elements right the result is profit. Each of these five variables are completely under your control. If you change these variables your profit increases or decreases. So for a same size of profit opportunity in the market two traders using two different set of trading mix will have completely different profit outcomes. Controlling your trading mix is the key to profitability.
Unless you have these basics in place, no amount of trading psychology is going to help you. Because your problem is not mindset or discipline at that stage but it is ignorance. Unless you educate yourselves on the controllable factors the market will remain a big mystery to you.