7/25/2007

Market Monitor

  • After trying the patience and after many false moves the selling arrived in full force yesterday. With 635 stocks down for the day the damage was wide spread.
  • As IBD mentioned in its "The Big Picture" section the IBD kind leaders were also down yesterday. Even a stock like AAPL was down . When you see leaders of the rally experiencing down moves, the safest bet is cash and sideline.
  • If you are following the IBD number of distribution days in specified time Index model, it has turned bearish on most Indexes barring Dow. Dow has 3 distribution days while other Indexes have 4 plus.
  • This correction was months in making with sector after sector undergoing slow breakdown. But as usual there will be bounce and attempts at bounce. The best shorting opportunities will present once such bounce attempt create ideal low volume creeping rallies.
  • Now lets look at the Market Monitor numbers, the 65 day ratio had sharp deterioration and you will get confirmation of bear move when it flips with more numbers on down side. On the 50% plus in month numbers we are looking for 3-5 numbers from current 17 to get bullish. On 100% plus numbers , if this develops in to real correction we are looking at numbers below 200. That also tells you where to look for opportunities on short side. Leaders breaking down, is the trade to look for from swing trading perspective.

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