Opportunity Buffet Part 2 | stockbee

7/25/2007

Opportunity Buffet Part 2

So far in this 4 years plus rally there have been few corrections which have really proven to be meaningful and had follow through. At this stage we do not know if this will have follow through, but going by the action so far, it looks like this correction has more downside ahead of it. Obviously there will be attempts at bounce. But once the worm turns, every bounce offers a low risk opportunity to put on short position on former leaders.

Because of the sheer number of stocks in each scan, I am not going scan by scan, but just putting together a short watch list for probable good shorts.
  1. GOOG : This former market leader gapped down post earning. It has a good catalyst of earning miss ,slowing earnings growth, rising cost, and out of control hiring. Since its 300% plus move in 2006, it has been a laggard and has gone up on low volume coming in to the earnings. It is consolidating here near the gap low and might have a weak rally, but the most probable move is down.
  2. AAPL : This current market leader has sky high expectations. Recent magazine cover. Analyst falling over each other to praise it. Heavily owned by institutions. It is the bell cow of this market. If the market has 10% correction, this stock will also breakdown. With earnings due today, one will have to watch for the reaction. But if this stock breaks down, you know market will have meaningful correction. It might be a buy after 20 to 25% correction.
  3. MICC : This is clear short. After a long rally, had a earning miss.
  4. NTRI: Another former leader which had a weak rally this year. Catalyst earnings reduction. Again will have to wait for a small pullback to put position as this is gapping down today.
  5. HANS : Another former market leader primed for a fall.
  6. CRDN: Gap down after long up move.
  7. CTSH: Another former leader primed for down move.
  8. RTI : Another former market leader
  9. CPA: Former rally leader
  10. AKAM: Former rally leader
In addition to this on your watch list you can put all stocks above 40 in Double Trouble. If the market correction follows through one by one all these stocks will correct up to 25%. Some of them are in early stages of rollover. That is how the 472 number will come down to 200.

WATCHLIST FROM DOUBLE TROUBLE

AAPL,Apple Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ACH,Aluminum Corp China (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AHD,Atlas Pipeline Holdings LP (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AKH,Air France KLM (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AKS,Ak Steel Holding Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AL,Alcan Inc. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AMX,America Movil S A B De C V (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AMZN,Amazon.Com Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AP,Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AQNT,Aquantive Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ASTE,Astec Industries (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AVT,Avnet Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BAP,Credicorp Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BCSI,Blue Coat Systems Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BEAV,Be Aerospace Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BGC,General Cable Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BIDU,Baidu.com Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BOBJ,Business Objects S A (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BRP,Brasil Telecom Partic Sa (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BTJ,Bolt Technology Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BWLD,Buffalo Wild Wings (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CAE,Cascade Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CAF,Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund` Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CENX,Century Aluminum Company (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CF,CF Industries Holdings Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CHAP,Chaparral Steel Company (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CHE,Chemed Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CHL,China Mobile Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CLF,Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CMI,Cummins Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CNH,Cnh Global Nv (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CPA,Copa Holdings S.A. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CPY,Cpi Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CROX,Crocs Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CTV,Commscope Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DECK,Deckers Outdoor Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DRYS,Dryships (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DWSN,Dawson Geophysical Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DXPE,Dxp Enterprises Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EDU,New Oriental Edu And Tech Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EMS,Emergency Medical Services L.P. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ENR,Energizer Holdings (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EVEP,EV Energy Partners LP (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FFIV,F5 Networks Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FLIR,Flir Systems Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FSLR,First Solar Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FWLT,Foster Wheeler Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GES,Guess? Incorporated (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GLDN,Golden Telecom Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GLF,Gulfmark Offshore Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GMCR,Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GME,Gamestop Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GNK,Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HAYN,Haynes International Inc. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HPGP,Hiland Holdings Go Units (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HURC,Hurco Companies Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HURN,Huron Consulting Group Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
IBN,Icici Bank Ltd Ads (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ICA,Empresas ICA Sociedad Controladora SA de CV (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ICE,Intercontinental Exchange Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ISRG,Intuitive Surgical Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
JCG,J Crew Group Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
KCI,Kinetic Concepts Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
KHD,Khd Humboldt Wedag Intl Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LBTYA,Liberty Global Inc Class A (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LBTYK,Liberty Global Inc Class C (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LEAP,Leap Wireless International Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LFC,China Life Insurance Company (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LFL,Lan Chile Sa (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LPHI,Life Partners Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LYO,Lyondell Chemical Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MA,MasterCard Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MBT,Mobile Telesys Ojsc Ads (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MDR,Mcdermott Internat Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MFW,M&F Worldwide Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MGM,MGM MIRAGE Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MICC,Millicom Intl Cellular Sa (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MT,Arcelor Mittal (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MTL,Mechel Steel Group OAO ADS (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MTW,Manitowoc Co Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MWP,Markwest Hydrocarbon Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MXE,Mexico Equity & Income (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NAFC,Nash-finch Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NCTY,The9 Limited (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NILE,Blue Nile (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NOV,National Oilwell Varco Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NVDA,NVIDIA Corporation (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NVT,Navteq Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
OPY,Oppenheimer Hldgs Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PCLN,Priceline.com Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PCP,Precision Castparts Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PCR,Perini Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PCU,Southern Copper Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PKX,Posco (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
POT,Potash Cp Saskatchewan (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RBN,Robbins & Myers Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RCI,Rogers Commun B Non-Votg (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RHA,Rhodia Ads (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RIMM,Research In Motion Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RIO,Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RL,Polo Ralph Lauren Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ROLL,RBC Bearings Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ROS,Rostelecom (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RTI,Rti Internat Metal Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RTRSY,Reuters Group Plc Adr (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RVBD,Riverbed Technologies Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SBS,Companhia De Saneamento B (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SGR,Shaw Group Inc (The) (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SID,Companhia Siderurgica Nacional S.A. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SINA,Sina Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SPSS,Spss Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SPWR,SunPower Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SQA--A,Sequa Corp Cl A (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TEX,Terex Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TNH,Terra Nitrogen Co L.P. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TPL,Texas Pacific Land Trust (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TSL,Trina Solar Ltd. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TWIN,Twin Disc Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
UAUA,UAL Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
UBB,Unibanco Uniao De Bancos (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VIP,Vimpel Communication Ads (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VLCM,Volcom Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VMSI,Ventana Medical Systems (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VSEA,Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VSEC,Vse Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
WBD,Wimm Bill Dann Foods Ojsc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
WCG,Wellcare Health Plans Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
WFR,Memc Electronic Material (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
WGOV,Woodward Governor Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
WNR,Western Refining Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
XNPT,XenoPort Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
YZC,Yanzhou Coal Mining Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ZOLT,Zoltek Companies Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)


The ideal low risk short will appear in next one or two weeks once they break down and have weak rally or form bear flags.

1 comment:

swharper said...

Can we stop being so bearish on AAPL now? :-) Magazine covers don't make a stock with record profits go down!