Reducing the IBD 200 list to few opportunities

May 28, 2007

The IBD 200 list offers opportunities at various stages. Some opportunities are overextended and too late to get in. To identify the best and handful of opportunities with best potential, here is what I do.
  • The total list has 200 stocks.
  • Sorted it by 65 days growth with one day offset using Telechart scan : 100 * (C1 - C66) / C66
  • Selected the stock which had less than 10 % growth in 65 days.
  • That gives 27 stocks.

ACTU,Actuate Corporation (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
ANST,Ansoft Corporation (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
AOB,American Oriental Bioengineering Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
ARD,Arena Resources Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
BHP,BHP Billiton Ltd (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
BLUD,Immucor Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
CENX,Century Aluminum Company (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
CNS,Cohen & Steers Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
DSX,Diana Shipping Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
EDU,New Oriental Edu And Tech Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
ELP,Companhia Paranaense De (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
GGB,Gerdau Sa Ads (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
HURC,Hurco Companies Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
ICE,Intercontinental Exchange Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
ICLR,Icon Plc Ads (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
IGLD,Internet Gold-Golden (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
MICC,Millicom Intl Cellular Sa (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
MR,Mindray Medical Intl Ltd (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
OMCL,Omnicell Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
OYOG,Oyo Geospace Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
PCLN,Priceline.com Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
SJR,Shaw Communications Cl B (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
SQM,Sociedad Quimica Chile (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
SSW,Seaspan Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
TEX,Terex Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
TKC,Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri ADS (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 
TRMB,Trimble Navigation Ltd (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart) 


Now this list can further be reduced based on sector action or whether the stock is in early breakout phase or late breakout phase.

Two stocks which offer the best opportunity probably are MICC and SSW, out of this reduced list of 27 stocks based on lack of breakout in last 60 days or so on both of them. MICC is a Luxembourg based cell phone operator famous for it Tigo brand service in emerging markets. While SSW is a shipping container chartering service. Both sectors are currently in favor. So I will be watching these two out of the 200 for a possible 4% plus breakout.

21 comments :

  1. AnonymousMay 29, 2007, 1:14:00 AM

    why are you looking for stocks that are up less than 10% for the last 65 trading days as possible long candidates? Isn't that low performance in a bull market a warning for relative weakness? If you're not willing to go long with the so called overextended stocks, would you dare to short them in that choppy market's environment?

    ReplyDelete
  2. UnknownMay 29, 2007, 6:39:00 AM

    very interesting. well done.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Pradeep BondeMay 29, 2007, 7:34:00 AM

    Ivanhoff
    Relative strength is good but too much relative strength leads to reversal in near term or underperformance in next 30 to 65 days.
    Bull market are characterised by sector and stock rotation, new stocks and sectors with near term weakness but long term relative strength (65 days consolidation or weakness) lead such series of rotations.
    Overextended stock does not necessarily make a stock a short.

    Howard
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  4. QUIKTDRMay 29, 2007, 9:14:00 AM

    Given a list via your scan how do you differentiate the stronger candidate to trade?

    Relative strength 1 yr vs SP500 or

    some type of volatility gauge?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Pradeep BondeMay 29, 2007, 9:29:00 AM

    The IBD 200 on Thursday, already is selected based on relative strength as one of the component of Composite rating.

    ReplyDelete
  6. mystockdiaryMay 29, 2007, 10:31:00 AM

    Hi Pradeep,

    Good reading and nicely put on your blog. very intersting to me as I always play breakout only, I was thinking to scan smallcapcenter for stocks which have mid to long tern comsolidation after breakout, so I can catch the nect breakout, I guess your thory kinda same as mine but better as you use IBD stocks. I will follow your posts from now on. Thanks

    Anand - abcstocks@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  7. SusanMay 29, 2007, 10:51:00 AM

    If they have a 4% break with no catalyst, would you buy?

    ReplyDelete
  8. Pradeep BondeMay 29, 2007, 10:58:00 AM

    They have earnings momentum and relative strength as catalyst.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Pradeep BondeMay 29, 2007, 11:01:00 AM

    and also sector momentum is catalyst in the IBD 200 list.

    ReplyDelete
  10. SusanMay 29, 2007, 11:25:00 AM

    Good point, but since they already have earning momentum and RS as catalyst, then we dont need the 4% breakout to buy right?

    ReplyDelete
  11. Pradeep BondeMay 29, 2007, 11:30:00 AM

    If you buy without breakout, it is dead money, the stocks may or may not move in intended direction. Breakout indicates new interest by big speculator.
    All big moves of 100% plus kinds have high volume breakouts triggering the move.

    ReplyDelete
  12. SusanMay 29, 2007, 11:36:00 AM

    understand now, thank you.
    And you'd buy the next day on open with a stop in previous 2 days low? Timing the entry seems to be my problem.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Pradeep BondeMay 29, 2007, 11:39:00 AM

    In most cases on day of breakout itself by 3 p.m. or even earlier. Yes stop is previous 2 days low. So if breakout is today, stop would be Thursday low.

    ReplyDelete
  14. ArtMay 29, 2007, 1:09:00 PM

    Are you aware of a TC scan which would separate a watchlist by groups? Or, better, would search a watchlist for a list of stock(s) in a particular group?

    ReplyDelete
  15. ArtMay 29, 2007, 1:11:00 PM

    group=sector in my last post sorry.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Pradeep BondeMay 29, 2007, 1:12:00 PM

    You can do that by flagging or using sublist feature in Telechart.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Pradeep BondeMay 29, 2007, 1:13:00 PM

    You can sort by Industry or Sub sector any list. Those are "System Sort" criteria.

    ReplyDelete
  18. ArtMay 29, 2007, 1:28:00 PM

    I got it. I was not looking in the right area. Thanks. Wow! That is a powerful feature.

    ReplyDelete
  19. ArtMay 29, 2007, 1:35:00 PM

    Can a tab be made for sub-industry group? I haven't found a way yet.

    And can one create more than the ten tabs (ie 11, 12, etc)?

    ReplyDelete
  20. Pradeep BondeMay 29, 2007, 1:45:00 PM

    1 yes
    2 no

    ReplyDelete
  21. ArtMay 29, 2007, 1:46:00 PM

    I found it. thanks anyhows

    ReplyDelete

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