No matter the market direction, one thing is constant The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll, a survey of the web's most prominent investment bloggers is always bearish.Nothing can make these so called "prominent investment bloggers" bullish. In the meanwhile markets have gone up since the poll started.
The bloggers participating in it are:
24/7 Wall St.
Now some of these are very short term day traders and one can discount their opinion, but many others claim to be long term traders or macro traders. As a group they have been bearish since the first poll started with just 2-3 positive readings.
Now the participants of this poll are very touchy when their bearishness is questioned. They offer all kinds of excuses. Most common being that they are bearish on market but actually bullish in their personal trading, or if you see my paid newsletter it is bullish and other more creative explanation.
People trade what they believe. If your belief are perma bearish, it is extremely difficult to trade opposite of that because there is lack on conviction. So if these bloggers actually trade what they believe, they should be losing money or underperforming the market substantially.
The second problem is even bigger, if , as some of them claim, that in reality they are bullish in their actual newsletter or trading then they are just misleading readers with these bearish views or lying. So they are just closeted bulls. They are better than James McGreevey in hiding that fact.
The third mystery is 99% of these prominent bloggers are practitioners of technical analysis, use trend lines, or use moving averages or other esoteric indicators. No matter which indicator you are using or the brand of technical analysis you were using , it was bullish during the time frame. So may be these bloggers don't know how to use the tools they use.
So there is great mystery as to what makes these prominent bloggers perma bears.
Earlier post: Popular blogger as contrarian indicator