6/17/2007

Ed Seykota: Trends do not exist

There is an interesting discussion about trends on Ed Seykota web site. The person asking the question is most probably Victor Niederhoffer follower. VN has a grudge against the trend followers and constantly attacks them. Ed Seykota's response is insightful.


Mr. Seykota,


I have been searching far and wide for a trader who can define a trend. None have lived up to the task ...

I have read piles of books and none have been able to answer my question either.

So I turn to a legend, you sir are my last hope.



Ed Seykota Response:


Part of the problem you may be having in defining a trend is that trends do not exist.

Like the past and the future, a trend is merely an idea. There is no such thing in nature. Trend is an idea about the overall average historical direction of prices; trend is a convenient way to view history; trends do not indicate the direction of prices in the moment of now, or even exist in the moment of now.

Furthermore, The methods you use to define trend (to view history) are entirely up to you, so you get to define trend any way you wish; everyone may have a different idea of "the" trend.

Let's say you make a graph the volume of air in your lungs. If you define trend by the one-second average, your air volume trend may change several times per minute. If you define trend by a 90-day average, then your air volume trend may gradually increase for several decades and then decrease.

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