11/10/2006

Home builders

On a slow day I am watching the action in home building stocks. There is no shortage of bears on home building stocks. The easy trade on short side on home builder is over long time ago.

BZH,Beazer Homes Usa
CTX,Centex Corp
DHI,D.R. Horton Inc
HOV,Hovnanian Enterprises A
KBH,Kb Home
LEN,Lennar Corp Cl A
LEN.B,Lennar Corp Cl B
MDC,M.D.C Holdings Inc
MHO,M/i Homes Inc
MTH,Meritage Homes Corp
NVR,Nvr Inc
PHM,Pulte Homes Inc
RYL,Ryland Group Inc. The
SPF,Standard Pacific Corp
TOL,Toll Brothers Inc
WCI,Wci Communities

Clueless commentators, failed hedge fund managers, CNBC pundits, and newsletter writer keep trying to propagate fresh bearish scenarios on home builders. The action you see in home builders is a good lesson in understanding how markets work and where you should look for short ideas.

Look at the list I posted in reply to homebuilders discussion yesterday, you should find good short ideas in them for next cycle.Look at CRS, PD,PCU, POT and several other metal stocks. There might be some opportunities there. Looking for short ideas, look at top of the range, that is if you want to find profitable ideas.

5 comments:

Unknown said...

I noticed you were looking at TRT on one of your lists. Any opions on this one. I've been checking it out and though some insiders are selling, they are also buying at recent levels. That looks good to me.

Pradeep Bonde said...

I am in TRT since yesterday and it is up aproximately 20% since my entry and flipped some to book profit since entry.
I don't look at insider selling. It is not a reliable indicator. Just look at earnings and momentum. TRT had earnings release yesterday. It as very small float.TRT was already in my top 2% momentum list.
On earnings plays, you have to act fast else the entry becomes too risky as it moves at lightening speed.

Pradeep Bonde said...

TRT has less than 3.2 million shares outstanding.

Unknown said...

Yes, I missed this one but will keep an eye on it. As you have said, some stocks will go on to bigger gains. It's hard for me to watch all of the earnings plays and get in early. I see this one opened at $11.50 yesterday but earnings didn't hit the wire until late morning. Of course, straight up after that.

All in all, looks like my week is going to end positive unless something drastic happens in the next hour.

Pradeep Bonde said...

See the mail, I just sent you . That details how to find these early and easily.
It already was in earning pool due to last quarter good earnings.