Subtle towel throwing by Dow 6800 bear

Now a prominent bearish analyst featured in major business publication (WSJ, CNBC, Business Week, Bloomberg etc) and a constant fixture on business TV is claiming that his persistent bearish thesis and cheer leading of the bearish case with a public prediction of Dow 6800 by 2006 end was just public posturing. Actually he was bullish and buying during that time, he never advised shorting or doubling down to hedge fund friends. Never, never, never.

Listen, people can snipe all they want. The Bulls are in full chest pounding mode, and as someone else wrote, the louder they yell, the more you know you are right.

Despite my protestations that Forecast is folly, I play the game and tried to shake things up. Any forecast is stale within a week -- did anyone predict the GSCI change? The elction sweep? Might that impact the thinking from that point forward?

Some sheeple seem to put way too much stock in other people's forecasts. GAPTFY -- Grow a pair / think for yourself is fast becoming our motto at TBP.

As to the long side, the short term trading calls have all been public -- including the Bullish BUY call on June 13 (pretty decent timing).

The option trade I rec'd on Q calls was only up 750% over the next 48 hours -- those made Cody crazy (why long? Aren't you bearish?) as if the long term macro view was going to impact your day to day trading.

Then there are the Buys of BP, SWY, ORCL, IBM, CPB, MOS, etc. All very public, and all pretty good.

Again, the blog is here for intellectual stimulation and discussion -- not trading advice.

I question the intelligence of those people who don't think for themselves, and are relying on blogs, Yahoo message boards, and (whattthehell) spam emails for their trading strategies and ideas . . .

Posted by: Barry Ritholtz | Nov 17, 2006 7:37:47 AM

It is always the intelligence of others which is in question. It is others who are pseudo contrarians. It is others who are morons.
That is a very subtle way to throw the towel and CYA.Now some would call that extraordinary deception. What was alleged crime of Henry Blodget, that he publicly was cheer leading a stock and privately dissing it. Apprenticed investors, you got screwed.

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1 comment:

Ritholtz said...: You seem to enjoy taking my writing out of context, don't you?

Thanks for allowing me this clarification: For the record, I have neither thrown in the towel, nor disavowed my Bearish call for 2006 -- which, with 6 week left in the year, looks to be quite the stinker.

And, somehow you overlooked in that public bearish call that I also had the most bullish Nasdaq forecast and the 3rd most bullish S&P forecast in the group for prior to the correction. (Why? Because thats how tops and corrections occur -- a strong move up followed by a major correction; See Cult of the Bear part III for details)

Since September of this move up, I have repeatedly written (and said on TV/Radio) that this market was too rip-roaring to be shorted. And given all the liquidity, momentum and short squeezes, advising not to short is hardly the same as throwing in the towel. Excuse the "Nuance."

As to the trading calls, Ned Davis wrote a book, asking the question, "do you want to be right, or do you want to make money?" I adhere to his logic.

Yes, my long term outlook remains bearish -- I put the the odds of a recession now over 50% -- but this has never stopped me from playing the long side of the market (at least for shorter term trades).

I take resposibility for all my trades and market calls -- good, bad and indifferent.

If these nuances are too subtle for you, well, then what can I say? Let me know when you start posting your trades/market calls in real time . . .; Nov 20, 2006, 3:07:00 PM

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