11/15/2006

Early bird gets the worm

Those trying to catch up with the market now have real dilemma. Much wider stops are needed to get on to moves. It is much more risky. If you were bullish since August, then you would be now sitting on some nice profits. If you started building positions at the start of the earning season, you would still be sitting on good profit.

Now that the market has entered more speculative phase the risk is significantly higher, but at the same time some of the best and vertical moves happen late in momentum cycle. To trade those kind of moves, you first need methodology to identify those stocks, you need guts to act quickly and you need ball of steels to hold them through some scary moves of 20 to 30% plus in few days. Not everyone is comfortable doing that.

So if you have missed out on profit opportunities, you must do some serious soul searching about your methodology and deeply held market beliefs. So many people have rules about trading, one of the most popular one is "Trade what you see and not what you think".


Since August you could see market going up, stocks breaking out, so why were you on sideline. As I have said before it is very easy to make rules , but very difficult to practice them.

Here is what I have positions in or looking at based on yesterday's action:


ALTH,Allos Therapeutics Inc.
AXR,Amrep Corp
BITI,Bio-imaging Technologies
CNTF,China Techfaith Wireless Communication Technology Limited
CRAY,Cray Incorporated
CYBX,Cyberonics Inc
DDS,Dillard's Inc
DKS,Dick's Sporting Goods
EFUT,E-Future Info Tech Inc Ord
EHTH,Ehealth Inc
FFH,Fairfax Financial Holdings
GOOG,Google
GRRF,China Grentech Corp Limited ADS
ICE,Intercontinental Exchange Inc
ININ,Interactive Intelligence
ITB,iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF
NTST,Netsmart Technologies
NTY,Nbty Inc
ORCT,Orckit Communication Ltd
PIR,Pier 1 Imports Inc
RICK,Rick's Caberet Intl
RKT,Rock-Tenn Co Cl A
SRSL,Srs Labs Inc
VSNT,Versant Corporation
WCI,Wci Communities

2 comments:

Unknown said...

I missed out big time today. I sold DAKT yesterday for a modest profit. Was apprehensive about holding into earnings announcement today since they took a big hit last time. This morning they beat the street handily and up 25%. Three words .... I am sick!!

Pradeep Bonde said...

When I saw it gapping up today, I remembered you and said shit this guy might have sold because of my comment on it.
Crazy market. Looks like tons of shorts.
The funniest thing I read was a newsletter by one of the Gurus which recommended shorting airlines based on his bearish thesis about US economy. The recommendations were in his weekend newsletter. Someone forwaded it to me asking for my opinion, I said don't even look at shorting and told him having worked in a company which owned planes, all that the guru is writing is bullshit. I told him look at their earnings.
Today I see all the stocks on that short list up 3 dollar plus at least. Imagine the pain of those who followed that newsletter.