Episodic Pivots

Earnings and earnings surprises lead to some Episodic Pivots. What determines the probability of stocks making an up more or down move such Episodic Pivots is a function of prior price action coming in to earnings, earnings acceleration or earnings surprise, forward guidance, valuation, fund holdings, and so on.

More important than that is where is the earnings in reference to the stocks earnings cycle. Is this a first major earnings acceleration/ surprise after many quarters of below par growth or is this a 8th or 12 th earnings acceleration. The second important consideration is where is the stock in its price appreciation cycle. Earnings acceleration/surprises early in a stocks price life cycle are good from trading perspective. It gets you in to a trade early in a long duration rally.

Earnings acceleration/surprise late in the cycle are slightly tricky to trade as they have both possibilities. It can lead to blowout runaway move or it can lead to reversal after one day gap up. Technicians call them island reversals.

ENR,Energizer Holdings (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
ESRX,Express Scripts Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
HTI,Halozyme Therapeutics Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
LBY,Libbey Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
MHS,Medco Health Solutions (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
PCAR,Paccar Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
RE,Everest Re Group Ltd. (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
RGR,Sturm Ruger & Co Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
SNA,Snap-On Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
TO,Tech-Ops Sevcon Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
TRCR,Transcend Services Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
TRT,Trio-Tech Internat (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
WGOV,Woodward Governor Co (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
WHR,Whirlpool Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)

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