Is counter trend rally in housing around the corner ? | stockbee


Is counter trend rally in housing around the corner ?

  • The grandmas in Timbuktu are excited about shorting housing.
  • There are people claiming that they have doubled their money in the housing shorts.
  • The perma bears are crowning themselves for their brilliance in forecasting housing market bearish action. Doug Kass has been bearish on housing since 2002!!! . No even earlier from 2001 onwards he was short housing.
    GEORGIA FOCUS: New products an elixir for First Horizon
    Pay-Per-View - Atlanta Journal/The Atlanta Constitution - NewsBank - Aug 14, 2001
    ... hedge fund manager Doug Kass -- described as having a "smashing good record" and ... According to Kass, who said he has shorted a clutch of leading home ...

  • The popular blogs have only housing related posts.
  • The Economist had dramatic housing problem cover.
  • Housing related cartoons in newspapers.

A counter trend rally in housing is around the corner......


NO DooDahs said...

Not sure if "counter-trend rally" is the right phrase for it. I think the bottom from July will hold for most of the homeys and for the homey index. It is funny that Doug has been bearish since 2002, since TOL, despite its recent weakness, is still double its high from 2002. Last I checked, that was 14.8% annualized …

Pradeep Bonde said...

He was bearish from 2001. Watch the other self proclaimed true contrarian and blogospheres most popular bear. He will quickly change his tune if home builders rally few points like he did last time.

jt said...

fwiw you might be on to something Pradeep - also CME lumber and some suppliers such as GGC seem to show possible bottoming even if short term only