Up stocks and down stocks
Selected stocks up or down 10% or more or up or down 5 points or more. Primarily the list is for generating multiday long short ideas. Not every stock on this list qualifies, in fact very few qualify as long term buy and sell.
Sometimes a major one day move kicks off a multi month or multi year rally.Most of such significant moves are precipitated by a new information about the company in terms of earnings, new products, new management, new industry dynamics, new discovery, new regulation, new news from sector,new overall market trend, new earning cycle, new pricing power, new merger/takeover industry dynamics, etc. New information creates price shocks.The new information in some case is so significant that it fundamentally alters market participants view of the stock or sector.
Most stocks which make 100% plus moves in a year have such "episodic pivots" at the beginning of their major moves.Analysing "episodic pivots" can get you in to a stock with low risk at the beginning of a major move. Most stocks or sectors over their entire life span have very few "episodic pivots".
Down moves
CRI,Carter Holdings Inc Earnings/guidance
DAKT,Daktronics Inc Irregular earnings. This has happened once before couple of quarters ago. Last time it gapped down more than 10%, stabilised a bit and headed higher and gapped up on earnings but never followed through post that. From predictable earnings to irregular earnings makes this volatile stock.
FRD,Friedman Industries Inc- earnings break
GIFI,Gulf Island Fabrication Delayed earning release. Reason not yet very clear but if related to irregularities or regulatory trouble, then this might have more downside. When in doubt best action is to sell. File under episodic pivot. Regulatory trouble is generally extremely good short side catalyst.
REFR,Research Frontiers Inc- After a flurry of press releases and the stock going up 100% plus in few days, how can you pass on an opportunity for secondary offerings.
WTS,Watts Industries Inc A- earnings miss
Up move
BITS,Bitstream Inc follow through from yesterday's 100% plus breakout.
BSC,Bear Stearns Companies- analyst upgrade
BSM,BSD Medical Corp Follow through from new product news couple of weeks ago
CMI,Cummins Inc- up 6 dollars on no major news.
DCX,Daimlerchrysler Ag Job cuts and restructuring news.
DE,Deere & Co Earnings. Example of large float company making a big move on good earning. DE is up 63% from 260 days low so far on earnings strength. Earning is the most important thing which drives stocks even with high float higher. The number one factor in stock selection for short or long term rapid appreciation potential for most stocks is earnings growth or hint of future earning growth or earning acceleration.
DTG,Dollar Thrifty Auto Grp- merger related news.
ECMV,E Com Ventures Inc- Extremely small float of 1.8 million. It has trippled in less than six month post an earnings breakout in Sept. The kind of stocks I like to focus on most of the time.The "episodic pivot" in September was good buy point.
EIG,Employers Holdings Inc- new IPO
FSLR,First Solar Inc Earnings breakout
HTI,Halozyme Therapeutics Inc Expansion of agreement with Baxter. It has gone up a lot since its major breakout on deal with Roche. It has significant insider buying. Bought last time on breakout in December, got stopped out post 50% move on pullback. This is already in my "Episodic Pivot" list for fresh entry.
IVGN,Invitrogen Corporation- earnings
KRSL,Kreisler Manufacturing earnings plus extremely small float of 1.02 million.
MICC,Millicom Intl Cellular Sa Earnings breakout
MRTN,Marten Transport Ltd- analyst upgrade
SGXP,SGX Pharmaceuticals- up 25% on no apparent news
SNCR,Synchronoss Technologies Inc up 10% on follow through from recent investor conference.
SPSS,Spss Inc- earnings
TRT,Trio-Tech Internat- Another one of those low float (2.2 million) earnings play. Already in "Episodic Pivot" list. I had highlighted this stock in September on earnings breakout and it made 40% plus move in few days
Sometimes a major one day move kicks off a multi month or multi year rally.Most of such significant moves are precipitated by a new information about the company in terms of earnings, new products, new management, new industry dynamics, new discovery, new regulation, new news from sector,new overall market trend, new earning cycle, new pricing power, new merger/takeover industry dynamics, etc. New information creates price shocks.The new information in some case is so significant that it fundamentally alters market participants view of the stock or sector.
Most stocks which make 100% plus moves in a year have such "episodic pivots" at the beginning of their major moves.Analysing "episodic pivots" can get you in to a stock with low risk at the beginning of a major move. Most stocks or sectors over their entire life span have very few "episodic pivots".
Down moves
CRI,Carter Holdings Inc Earnings/guidance
DAKT,Daktronics Inc Irregular earnings. This has happened once before couple of quarters ago. Last time it gapped down more than 10%, stabilised a bit and headed higher and gapped up on earnings but never followed through post that. From predictable earnings to irregular earnings makes this volatile stock.
FRD,Friedman Industries Inc- earnings break
GIFI,Gulf Island Fabrication Delayed earning release. Reason not yet very clear but if related to irregularities or regulatory trouble, then this might have more downside. When in doubt best action is to sell. File under episodic pivot. Regulatory trouble is generally extremely good short side catalyst.
REFR,Research Frontiers Inc- After a flurry of press releases and the stock going up 100% plus in few days, how can you pass on an opportunity for secondary offerings.
WTS,Watts Industries Inc A- earnings miss
Up move
BITS,Bitstream Inc follow through from yesterday's 100% plus breakout.
BSC,Bear Stearns Companies- analyst upgrade
BSM,BSD Medical Corp Follow through from new product news couple of weeks ago
CMI,Cummins Inc- up 6 dollars on no major news.
DCX,Daimlerchrysler Ag Job cuts and restructuring news.
DE,Deere & Co Earnings. Example of large float company making a big move on good earning. DE is up 63% from 260 days low so far on earnings strength. Earning is the most important thing which drives stocks even with high float higher. The number one factor in stock selection for short or long term rapid appreciation potential for most stocks is earnings growth or hint of future earning growth or earning acceleration.
DTG,Dollar Thrifty Auto Grp- merger related news.
ECMV,E Com Ventures Inc- Extremely small float of 1.8 million. It has trippled in less than six month post an earnings breakout in Sept. The kind of stocks I like to focus on most of the time.The "episodic pivot" in September was good buy point.
EIG,Employers Holdings Inc- new IPO
FSLR,First Solar Inc Earnings breakout
HTI,Halozyme Therapeutics Inc Expansion of agreement with Baxter. It has gone up a lot since its major breakout on deal with Roche. It has significant insider buying. Bought last time on breakout in December, got stopped out post 50% move on pullback. This is already in my "Episodic Pivot" list for fresh entry.
IVGN,Invitrogen Corporation- earnings
KRSL,Kreisler Manufacturing earnings plus extremely small float of 1.02 million.
MICC,Millicom Intl Cellular Sa Earnings breakout
MRTN,Marten Transport Ltd- analyst upgrade
SGXP,SGX Pharmaceuticals- up 25% on no apparent news
SNCR,Synchronoss Technologies Inc up 10% on follow through from recent investor conference.
SPSS,Spss Inc- earnings
TRT,Trio-Tech Internat- Another one of those low float (2.2 million) earnings play. Already in "Episodic Pivot" list. I had highlighted this stock in September on earnings breakout and it made 40% plus move in few days
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2 comments:
Have you ever tracked these? It'd be interesting to see if you could track these hits, maybe adding a few other factors- probably would find a pretty decent correlation...
Yes I do track them. But only the selected ones where I put the comment like file under episodic pivot.
This is comparatively recent trading concept I have fine tuned. It has been in work only for around 1 1/2 years as against most of my other ideas which are 5-6 year old.
99% of my efort is focused on finding stocks likely to make significant move early in their price appreciation cycle.
So this concept fits in very well in that scheme of things.
I might have a longer post about it sometime later.
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