A Dash of Insight

A Dash of Insight has a series of posts about 2007 forecast. Jeffrey A. Miller takes a look at recent market history, valuation matrices, Fed Model and the perma bears. Excellent series to get a perspective on investing in 2007.

As we turn over another year on our calendars, it is the traditional time to take stock of what has happened and look forward to prospects for the new year. While our message is primarily intended for individual investors, many traders and fund managers will also benefit from an open-minded consideration (or re-consideration) of this information.

At "A Dash" we always start with the fundamentals. By "fundamentals" we mean looking at the prospective returns of potential investments in a way that can be quantified and tested over time.

Some analysts narrowly define technical analysis and think that everything else is "fundamental. Here is a list of things that are not "fundamentals" by our definition.

* Perennial concerns about old subjects -- war, famine, pestilence, debt, current accounts deficit, etc.
* Market hypotheses like seasonal variation, the Presidential cycle, comparison of various "recovery cycles."
* Complaints about government conspiracies or shortcomings in economic data.

These things are not technical analysis, but they are also not fundamental analysis unless the impacts can be quantified in terms of expected returns.

More here, here, here, and here.