12/03/2006

Reality and bearish spin

One of the blogs I read regularly is Jeffrey A. Miller's- A dash of insight. You always find good macro analysis on his blog. Here is his take on how bears spin normal data to buttress their arguments.

Negative Spin on Normal Data

Some market observers, including our favorite bear, Barry Ritholtz, seem intent on forcing a negative interpretation on data that are perfectly consistent with GDP real growth of about 2%. Check out Barry's take on the numbers.

A slowing economy is the Fed's intended policy result. Slowdown in the components of GDP, like consumer spending, is normal and expected. The reports for the Chicago PMI and today's ISM are completely consistent with 2% economic growth as we pointed out in yesterday's forecast and today's analysis.

Market Watch also incorrectly calls this a "fresh sign of economic weakness" in an article that has a negative spin throughout. Only readers who are patient enough to read to the last sentence will see the ISM's own analysis of their data: It means GDP growth of about 2%.

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