7/13/2006

Total bull capitulation

With the latest news of missile strike on Israel cities, there is a whoosh down. This looks like total capitulation. We are in final phases of bear phase where good, bad and ugly is being sold. From this will emerge a bull market. The easiest money is made in the earliest phase of bull market after such bearish corrections.
A reader has wrote back saying you are underestimating the Middle East conflict and more bearishness is around corner. If you are becoming bearish now, you are too late to the party. As to Middle East, ever since I learned how to spell Middle East it has been like this. No one in Middle East wants peace. Most of the sundry dictators and terrorist who rule Middle East from time to time overestimate their strength and make foolish bets. Fortunately the world opinion has changed today and the world has very little tolerance for such antics. So in few weeks the Middle East situation will resolve itself.
As a result of all these factors, the Fed will not raise rates in its next meeting.

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