The bear case
Let us summarize the bear case so far.
High Interest rates: High interest rates are negative will slow down the economy.
Inflation: We are headed for sustained inflationary times.
Overextended US consumer: Stagnating wages, high personal debt level and no more recourse to cheap home equity.
Declining home prices : Real estate correction will be painful and will destabilize the market.
When the market has to rally it will rally not with standing all these problems. If you start believing too much of this bearish hype, you will be too scared to buy.
The other thing is most of the bearish commentators have a poor timing record. Most of these same things have been talked about for last 2 years and did not matter.
The most interesting thing is most of the well known bearish blogger have poor conviction when it comes to trading based on their own analysis.
There is a prominent blogger, who has been in media lime light for making a correct call on market direction during this correction, if you see his own public trades during that time three or four times he has chickened out on small correction. So keep in mind most bears don't trade with conviction based on their own negative analysis.
Market corrections after a sustained multi year rallies are part of the market normal behavior. This correction will play itself out followed by another rally. The initial period of rally after such period is easiest to trade and most profitable as stocks with excellent fundamentals sprint out and rally without much correction.
High Interest rates: High interest rates are negative will slow down the economy.
Inflation: We are headed for sustained inflationary times.
Overextended US consumer: Stagnating wages, high personal debt level and no more recourse to cheap home equity.
Declining home prices : Real estate correction will be painful and will destabilize the market.
When the market has to rally it will rally not with standing all these problems. If you start believing too much of this bearish hype, you will be too scared to buy.
The other thing is most of the bearish commentators have a poor timing record. Most of these same things have been talked about for last 2 years and did not matter.
The most interesting thing is most of the well known bearish blogger have poor conviction when it comes to trading based on their own analysis.
There is a prominent blogger, who has been in media lime light for making a correct call on market direction during this correction, if you see his own public trades during that time three or four times he has chickened out on small correction. So keep in mind most bears don't trade with conviction based on their own negative analysis.
Market corrections after a sustained multi year rallies are part of the market normal behavior. This correction will play itself out followed by another rally. The initial period of rally after such period is easiest to trade and most profitable as stocks with excellent fundamentals sprint out and rally without much correction.
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