7/14/2006

Watch this guys next move



At some stage the Fed will indicate enough selling. Asset prices are important Fed consideration. When that happens watch the fireworks.

A recurring topic of debate among monetary policymakers and academic experts for a decade and more is whether, and under what conditions, a central bank should adjust policy in an effort to affect the direction of the stock market. This issue arose initially in the context of the stock market boom in Japan in the late 1980s, and the subsequent market decline in the 1990s. Not only did the Japanese stock market decline but also the Japanese economy has suffered from an almost continuous stagnation since the early 1990s. In the United States, the stock market boom after 1995, and especially after the fall of 1998 until the early part of 2000, raises the same issue. Given that the U.S. economy’s growth has been near zero this year, it is natural to ask whether tempering the prior stock market and economic boom might have reduced the difficulties the economy has faced this year.

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