7/26/2006

Don't bet against the dollar


This cover of Economist appeared at the height of bearishness on dollar. Since then the dollar started going up. People with big pockets like Warren Buffet had big bets against dollars and the conventional wisdom was doom and gloom for dollar. Since then the dollar continues to defy the skeptics.



Here is an insightful explanation as to why.
The explanation for the stability--strength, in fact--of the U.S. dollar, even as the current account deficit has since 1990 risen from zero to 7 percent of GDP, lies with the globalization of wealth storage by rapidly growing countries--both advanced and emerging. Wealth is increasing rapidly in emerging markets, China of course being the largest, but also in Europe and Japan, not to mention the oil-exporting countries. The United States offers the largest menu of wealth storage options, not only in terms of variety, but also in terms of liquidity (defined as the ability to move huge sums--tens of billions of dollars worth) with only a small impact on price.

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