7/13/2006

The dark art of short selling

Some readers have asked for short scan. Even though I scan for short side on daily basis, I do not short stock much. Years of experience and testing have not shown me many systems which can consistently make money on short side. Many times the thing which I want to short are not available to short. If I have to short I use the Index futures. I have no edge on short side and so I keep away from it till I find something which works.
There are many people who claim just use a reverse of long strategy to short, which sound very simple but does not work. What works on short side as far as my experience goes is selecting a few sectors to short. The nature of certain businesses is such that when things go wrong it is difficult for the companies in that industry to recover. Retail and biotech are such sectors.
Another thing which works on short side is monitoring earning misses. Earning misses in stocks with long history of beating earnings can trigger a good cascade. If this happens as a total surprise or on stocks which are at top of the range then you can get nice low risk entry.
The other thing which I monitor on short side are the companies flagged by Herb Greenberg. Without doubt he is the most reliable high profiled short tracker on street working with lots of shrewd street players who feed him with research for his column. His picks do not necessarily become good shorts as between the time he starts flagging problems and the street actually agreeing with him there are several counter trend rallies, short squeezes and management fight backs. However the reason I monitor him is to keep a close tab on my long positions he flags because once I as badly burned on a long position he highlighted in which I had pyramided and had lots of profit in it. I do not subscribe to his newsletter but I have an alert set in Google for news, discussions and web site updation on his name.

Short Scan

AFFX,Affymetrix Inc
ANR,Alpha Natural Resources
AVT,Avnet Inc
BAK,Braksem Sa
BC,Brunswick Corp
BGP,Borders Group Inc
BHS,Brookfield Homes
CBRL,Cbrl Group Inc
CGNX,Cognex Corp
CHKP,Check Point Software Technologies Inc
CHS,Chico's Fas Inc
CTAS,Cintas Corp
ELK,Elkcorp
FMT,Fremont General Corp
GCO,Genesco Inc
GTRC,Guitar Center Inc
GYI,Getty Images Inc
JNPR,Juniper Networks
KSWS,K-Swiss Inc Cl A
MCRL,Micrel Inc
MDC,M.D.C Holdings Inc
MSO,Martha Stewart Lvg Omni
MTH,Meritage Homes Corp
MTX,Minerals Technologies Inc
PFCB,P F Chang's China Bistro
PII,Polaris Industries Inc
RYL,Ryland Group Inc. The
SMTC,Semtech Corp
SNS,The Steak N Shake Comp
TUTS,Tut Systems Inc
URBN,Urban Outfitters Inc
YCC,Yankee Candle Co Inc

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