Reader query on BIDU
Any specific stock does not matter. The overall methodology is more important. I have no opinion on buying before or after earning. Here are some of my observation on what happens to stocks during and after earnings:
1 Start of a new rally. In some cases there is a start of new rally which lasts until next earning season. This mostly happens in neglected stocks, where there is no analyst, no forward guidance, no complicated balance sheet maneuver. The market simply discovers these hidden gems during the earning season. e.g. HSR during last earning season. It had a 400% move post earning.
2 A small rally and then an extended range formation.
3 Reversal and then after few weeks or a few week before next earning date a rally in anticipation. e.g. BOT and BIDU
4 Reversal and it continues to drop. e.g. USG
Now the trick is to find the first one and have the conviction and courage to hold on till it reverses. For that you need to look at number of other things. Based on datamining several quarters of earnings over several years, I have found some patterns which increase the probability of finding the first kind of plays.
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