9/26/2007

Opinion on Stock and Following Methodology

Hey stockbee! I need your advice desperately. I bought cpsl yesterday right before close and this morning I got scared out on 2% loss, then after I sold it it went up to almost $11 dollars. How was supposed to know that it was going to continue going up instead of going down? If you could please give me a thorough analysis of your outlook on it..thanks so much



This is typical of the 30 to 40 emails I get daily on an ongoing basis. People want an opinion on stock. The questions start with what do you think of Gold stocks at this level, or what do you think of BIDU or do you think ISRG will run from here and so on.

Individual stock analysis in absence of methodology is a random guessing game. If you have a well thought out methodology, you just follow the stock that pass through that methodology. In any systemic approach or method like Episodic Pivots or IBD 200, or Double Trouble or other methods , the bulk of the thinking has been done beforehand. If the underlying logic behind the system is sound and tested, you don't have to think about individual stocks. Designing and making a method work is the real challenge in trading. If you have well thought out method and follow it regularly, profit is an outcome.

Later: Trading and window washing