End of holidays
September 4, 2007
Market will be in full participation mode post the summer holidays. Market continues to be in correction mode as per Market Monitor timing model. The Investor's Business Daily timing model has turned positive. However it already had one false positive signal.
There has been some improvement in the 65 days ratio in recent days, but it continues to be firmly in negative territory.
There has been some improvement in the 65 days ratio in recent days, but it continues to be firmly in negative territory.
Please check smart money trail in my post "The Crystal Ball". Thanks,
ReplyDeleteMkt Swimmer
Yes, IBD calls on signals are mis-leading lately...Reading O'Neil's book ("How to Make...") re market tops or bottoms, he lengthened the times for identifying market tops: "Normal liquidation near a market peak will usually occur on three to five days over one, two, or three weeks." I take that to mean to use your judgment especially in very turbulent times. However maybe I am just more of a conservative bend.
ReplyDeletePradeep,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your postings. They are a must read.
Also, for all the stockbee viewers, I have attempted to post the IBD Composite 200 on a weekly basis and will try to ID the stocks that are moving pursuant to Pradeep methodology. Check it out at stockbeeibd200.blogsport.com
stockbeeibd200.blogsport.com
ReplyDeletecannot find this site....is it up yet
thx
It would be stockbeeibd200.blogspot.com
ReplyDeleteGood idea to come up with the IBD200 site, good job and thanx!
ReplyDeleteIBD is misleading, VectorVest is way better and precise. Mr Market started to turn around since August 17-18, and there were stocks uptrending since then. just look at Barchart Momentum and you will see around august 17 there were 17 % stocks above 20 moving average, today 75% are above 20 moving average.If you set up Telechart to look at charts and even a simple search just looking for 2 - 3 % gain over this time , you will see it uptrending. Its not rocket science, just keep looking at Mr Market internals , have a method and you will make money.
ReplyDeleteNOV 15.14%
ACH 48%
TNH 32%
TBSI 32 %
These are stocks that have been mentioned here and my profits from the past 2 weeks
Hector, which methods were you using over this time to have the gains in the stocks you mentioned? Thanks!
ReplyDeletemgold,
ReplyDeletedo you have Telechart? how do you set up your time to buy stocks? To sell? The reason i ask you can have the best stocks, but the wrong time to buy.just let me know how you set up your charts
Hector, I do not have telechart but have been following Pradeep's methods - DoubleTrouble, Son of Double Trouble, Episodic Pivot, and used to use IBD200 methods. I was just wondering if you were using any of those methods. Been on vacation so have not been in the market during this correction for a few weeks. Thanks!
ReplyDeletemgold,
ReplyDeleteIts fine to follow any of those methods, but you still need to time yourself when to buy a stock and when to sell. Some of the methods that Pradeep teach here requires to have telechart and an indicator like .95 * MAX130, because the best stocks are going to ride above this indicator and consolidate above it, this is because the indicator is designed to pick the stock that are making new highs. Now, if for some reason you can afford Telechart and its ok if you can not. I will show you another way, but in another website called Stockcharts, but i need to know what you trying to accomplish and the timeframe
Hector, some things I look at are low float, 10day /30 day weakness, also if stock is within 15% of 52 wk high and sector. I also look at intra day chart and look at pricing / volume movt before I buy. As far as time frame....short term (not day trade) and longterm.
ReplyDeleteHector - Oh I usually use IBD, MSN Money, Yahoo Finance, Bar Chart.com.
ReplyDeletemgold,
ReplyDeletethats fine, its hard to show a timing method without Telechart, but i can show you a simple method free and you can see it for yourself, you wont pick the bottom or the top, however you will get about 70-80 % of the move. do you know what a japanese
charting technique called " Three line Break" is? Go do some research about it, read it, let me know what you think and i show you a chart setting in Stockcharts that you can
incorporate with your knowledge and make some money if you can see "green" as a buy or "red" as a sell
BTW, i didnt mean about IBD being misleading, i just like Vectorvest best because their timing model looks to all the stock universe and gives each stock the same weight,IBD calls were misleading, but VectorVest was right in the money now and it was right in the money on july 24- 26 on the market downturn
ReplyDeleteHi Hector,
ReplyDeleteI have TC and would like to know how and where you enter your indicator ".95 * MAX130" and most of all, how do you use it to sort the stocks you want. I have entered a similar indicator ".75*MAX130" in the upper part of TC but I have an error msg saying "Missing Argument". Thanks for your response.
Hector, 3 line is similiar to point and figure. I am interested in your settings. Thanks!
ReplyDeletesyl20,
ReplyDeleteJust follow this steps;
Right click somewhere in a chart: Add indicator -> custom ->indicator ->Top
then check box 'visible' and 'plot using price scale'...then type inside box .95 * MAXC130 , then press 'test formula' and should give you a number value . and save it..thats it , now i will show you a little trick...when you have TC open , left click one time in the top chart, then press letter c in the keyboard, that going to give you a custom date sort, now just choose any start and end date and press ok, thats going to sort the stocks with the greatest gain for that period of time, start looking at charts 1 by 1 and you will see how price will ride on top of the indicator, the best stocks of the year tend to ride and consolidate on top of this indicator, also if you want to make the indicator a little quicker, use .95 * MAXC65..Now for the method, just go to Methods and Philosopy and read How to find a stock which makes a 1500% move in a year (Double Trouble) and your chart should look like the one posted by Pradeep in that particular method. Also, try to do a daily little routine in TC by doing a custom sort everyday from 1 day to the next and from week to week and you will see how the stock leadership changes and you start seeing some stock making highs very often, if you want to see the trends more defined, instead of looking daily, change to 2 days the charts, i found it to be more easy to find trends this way
syl20
ReplyDelete.95 * MAX130
or
.75*MAX130
are giving you error because you have not specified Max what
Maxh130= will give you Max high in 130 days
Maxc130= will give you max close in 130 days.
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ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHector,
ReplyDeleteThank you for the settings. Most helpful. I will take a look at this and how it will tie in with the methods I have learned from stockbee.
Thanks again!
mgold,
ReplyDeleteany questions , feel free to ask ,we are here to help each other, also make sure you look daily at the market monitor
hector, Thanks! I set up the charts and can clearly see the better buy signals and can see that it may not be always easy to catch initial move...unless it is on an Episodic Pivot where you may buy that same day. Thanks again! I do follow market monitor as well as bar chart momentum.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHector,
ReplyDeleteIf possible could you restore your comments on Three line Break from earlier? Found very useful.
david,
ReplyDeletei will later on tonight
david,
ReplyDeletejust got home, i will post the comments again, i have to rewrite everything, just read about it online: http://www.surinotes.com/3lpb.pdf, http://www.piptrader.com/forex_education/forex_charting/three_line_break_chart.asp
http://www.paritech.com/education/technical/pricecharts/threeline.asp
http://www.geocities.com/dancoman/TA/3linebreak.html
im going to wait because i think Pradeep is going to post about timing models but i will post.
also read about renko
Hector,
ReplyDeleteThanks so much for the info. Will do.
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ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHector, thanks so much for the info. Greatly appreciated. Will check out your new blog and will participate as requested.
ReplyDeleteDavid