9/18/2006

Scan 2 year growth

In my previous post I talked about Apple and how it showed up on my short scan. If you want to set up a similar scan here is how you can set it up easily in TC2007.

C >= 3 * (MINL540 + .01)
Today's close is 3 times the minimum price in two years. The assumption is there are 270 trading days in a year. The .01 is added to avoid error in calculation if a stock has not traded for a day or traded at 0.

The additional conditions are :
1 Price>10
In reality I prefer stocks above 40 for short selling.

2 Float is above 70 million.
I prefer stocks with very high floats. When the large tankers start rolling over there are large number of holders to accentuate the move. As a general observation they have a smoother ride down.

This is the basic outline of the scan and the central idea behind it. My actual scan has few more bells and whistle and some tactical tweaks to narrow this down even further to less number of candidates. As of Friday data it showed 37 candidates. Not all of them make good shorts but there are 5 good ideas in that list which might offer good set ups if the market takes a tumble.

AAPL,Apple Computer Inc
AKAM,Akamai Technologies Inc
AMLN,Amylin Pharmaceuticals
AMR,Amr Corporation
AQNT,Aquantive Inc
ARRS,Arris Group Inc
ATI,Allegheny Technologies
BMRN,Biomarin Pharmaceuticals
BWNG,Broadwing Corp
CAL,Continental Airlines B
CBG,Cb Richard Ellis Svcs
CELG,Celgene Corp
CRM,Salesforce.com Inc
CVA,Covanta Holding Corp
CWTR,Coldwater Creek Inc
DO,Diamond Offshre Drilling
FSL,Freescale Semiconductor Inc
FTO,Frontier Oil Corp
GLBL,Global Industries Ltd
HANS,Hansen Natural Corp
HUM,Humana Inc
JOYG,Joy Global Inc
LCC,US Airways Group Inc
MDR,Mcdermott Internat Inc
NDAQ,Nasdaq Stock Market Inc
NIHD,NII Holdings Inc
NVDA,NVIDIA Corporation
PWR,Quanta Services Inc
SBAC,Sba Communications Corp
SWN,Southwestern Energy Co
TIE,Titanium Metals Corp New
TWTC,Time Warner Telecom Inc
TXU,TXU Corp
USG,Usg Corp
VLO,Valero Energy Corp
VRTX,Vertex Pharmaceuticals
WFR,Memc Electronic Material


Even though I am illustrating some of these ideas inTC2007, my actual scans are on my own software. I use TC2007 more as a market data source and a good programme to store my watchlists. There are certain shortcomings in most programmes. One of the problem in the scan I illustrated above is that it requires 540 days of data. Now stocks which have less than 540 days of data also have 300 plus moves. These stocks do not get reflected in this scan. My software avoids all these kind of problem, plus it is lightning fast. If you run this scan in TC2007 it takes lot of time and slows down the process.

Now this same scan you can use to find long candidates.( That is how I found AKAM and GOOG recently) As they say the trend is your friend till it bends.

2 comments:

amit said...

Is the software you are using a proprietary ? Is it available for sale ?

If you have developed it for yourself/have had someone write for you, what platform is it on ?

Amit

Pradeep Bonde said...

Yes it is proprietary. When it stops working I will sell it!

It has been custom developed using VB, .net, ASP and other stuff, which I have no idea about. I am primarily a user I chose not to understand technology behind it. It has gone through several versions.