They also have probabilities of most likely World Cup Winner.
Goldman Sachs World Cup Probability Study
As an aid to our guesses as to who is going to reach the
semi-finals, we have calculated the following intriguing
probabilities.
We have combined official FIFA rankings and odds from
different bookmakers to create a probability model that
penalizes teams according to how tough their schedule is
on average.
Our model-probabilities are not too far from consensus.
Brazil is the undisputed favorite, with a 12% probability
of winning the Cup. England is the runner up, although
there seems to be a very close probability clustering
between positions 2 and 5, with England, Spain, France,
Holland and Argentina all with, broadly speaking, similar
chances of winning.
Germany, the host, is the 8th most likely team to win the
Cup, with a 5.5% probability. We did not award
Germany any bonus probability, despite some (debatable)
evidence that hosts do have an advantage. Portugal, Italy
and the Czech Republic all lie very close to Germany in
terms of probabilities. The USA, ranked 13th, has a slim,
but not negligible, probability (2.2%) of winning the
tournament. Asian and African countries generally rank
at the bottom end of the table.
All said, however, we look forward to another exciting
competition full of surprises and outstanding games from
outsiders and underdogs. That is, after all, what makes
football so popular.
Themistoklis Fiotakis
Country Model Probability
Brazil 12.4%
England 8.6%
Spain 8.3%
France 8.3%
Netherlands 8.0%
Argentina 7.4%
Portugal 5.8%
Germany 5.5%
Italy 5.3%
Czech Republic 5.0%
Mexico 4.2%
Sweden 3.6%
USA 2.2%
Croatia 1.8%
Poland 1.6%
Ivory Coast 1.2%
Switzerland 1.2%
Ukraine 1.1%
Paraguay 1.1%
South Korea 0.9%
Japan 0.9%
Tunisia 0.9%
Ecuador 0.8%
Serbia and Montenegro 0.6%
Australia 0.6%
Costa Rica 0.6%
Iran 0.5%
Ghana 0.4%
Saudi Arabia 0.4%
Togo 0.3%
Angola 0.3%
Trinidad and Tobago 0.2%
Who Will Win The World Cup?
GS Probabilities
Note: This table translates Fifa ranks into odds and combines
themw ith the average odds given by bookies to create an "initial
probability". Then, it penalizes the countries according to how
tough their schedule is and it spits out the final probability as per
the table above.
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