4/10/2006

Tops or bottoms- it's a stock pickers market

Most of the weekend commentary is about doom and gloom. The bearish commentators are out in force talking about this is "the top". Does anyone knows for sure? In a up move there are several tops along the way.
What I am focused on is stock picking. In any market you will find stocks not correlated to overall market. They have their own momentum.
Also the most important season for stock picking is ahead of us- the earnings season. The earning season always brings out new surprises and as a consequence new stock ideas.
Stocks react to earnings immediately in cases where there is a surprise or stock is not followed by most of the analyst. This can set up rallies which last from 6 weeks to sometime years. On the short side also you will find stocks reacting up to 25% post earning.
Here are some stocks which reacted favorably in last earning season and rallied 25% or more since announcing earnings.
NEU, IVAC, RACK, ATHR, DXPE, NOIZ, PWEI, CLZR, TRID, NICH, SWSI, CHAP, BGC, AMKR, LCRD, TMI, IIG, CHIC, ICON, RTI, KNXA, GLG, HANS, TLAB, CMG
These trends are not only short lived but have legs. Many of these stocks go on to make triple digits in just few quarters.
Here is a list of stocks from earnings track pool from three quarters ago with triple digit growth in three quarters.
MEK, OYOG, TIE, HOM, ARTG, NTRI, HANS, IVAC, ERS, CECE,HOLX, GROW, ICTG, ATI, ARD, MERX, RAIL, GMXR, KNXA, NVDA, JOYG, GFX, ISRG, BITS, ARS, ZUMZ, TMTA, STMP, NDAQ, NETL, KNOT
The breakouts following earnings are some of the most powerful breakouts you will ever see. Some of these stocks just take off like rockets. The overall market direction does not matter. You can see for yourself what was the market doing during those earning seasons.
Obviously with over 7000 stocks reporting earnings, you need some systematic way to reduce the universe to track earnings on, you need your own database to track it and covert it in to proper system using risks management and stops. More about it later.
In the meanwhile don't fret over the bearish or bullish top or bottom callers too much. If you are keen on tops and bottom picking head here
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