Betting against Big Picture Part 2

Barry Ritholtz is upset that his analysis is being used to make money by making a contrary bet and he has left a comment on last post about housing market.

There is a difference between analyst mentality and trader mentality. As a trader when you see an analyst or commentator making 4 posts on housing crash in 24 hours you should only look at three possibilities. Are the housing stocks in the near future going up, down or sideways. That is the critical difference between traders and analyst. You should only be interested in what trade it precipitates.

Look at the entire analysis about inflation which dominated all popular blogs few months ago. All the popular blogs were pounding the table on inflation, I said and traded contrary to that and said so.

The long bond trade should have never worked if inflation was such a major concern. The bond trade contrary to popular blogs hysterical inflation pounding was the right trade at that time and it was exactly opposite of what should have happened if the analysis was correct. You can go and see for yourself what was the analysis on these blogs during and before the move. If you had followed that you would be losing money on their call.

Good analysis and good trading set ups are very different thing. Good trades are contrary to popular analysis.

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