What makes a stock move 200% plus in a year

33 stocks in my database currently are up 200% plus measured from their 260 day low (priced above 10). Everyday one question I mull over is what makes a stock move 100% plus in a year. Machine does much of the mulling trying to isolate factors which contributed to the rise, analysing certain fundamental, certain sector related, certain market phase related factors. In addition I add observational and insight based factors.

The idea is to try and isolate factors which lead to a stock making significant moves. The limitation of the factor analysis is it is not necessarily a predictive thing. The market is dynamic so the contributing factors and weights keeps shifting. Now if you do it for many years, as I have been doing you get certain insights besides just the quantitative factors.

Everyday I look at stock which are new to 100% plus universe. Similarly I look at intervals of 200, 300, 400, and so on. The same thing I do on the monthly 50% plus and 25% plus list.
So here is the list of 33 stocks to mull over as to why PTT made a 900% move or SYX made a 300% plus move.

ACOR,Acorda Therapeutics Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
ACP,American Real Estate Prt (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
ACY,Aerocentury Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
ANGN,Angeion Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
BIOV,Bioveris Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
CCOI,Cogent Communications Group Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
CPY,Cpi Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
DGIT,Dg Fastchannel Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
ECMV,E Com Ventures Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
FRG,Fronteer Development Group Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
GEO,Geo Group (The) (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
GRA,W.R. Grace & Co (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
HRT,Arrhythmia Research Tech (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
ICE,Intercontinental Exchange Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
INAP,Internap Network Svcs Cp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
JADE,Lj Internat Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
KNOL,Knology Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
MDV,Medivation Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
MEH,Midwest Express Holding (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
MWP,Markwest Hydrocarbon Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
NEXC,Nexcen Brands Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
OMRI,Omrix Biopharmaceuticals Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
PCCC,Pc Connection Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
PNCL,Pinnacle Airlines (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
PRGX,Prg-schultz Intl Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
PTT,Vcg Holding Copr (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
SIGM,Sigma Designs Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
SPAR,Spartan Motors Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
SVVS,SAVVIS Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
SYX,Systemax Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
TATTF,Tat Technol Ltd (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
TTEC,Teletech Holdings Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)
VSNT,Versant Corporation (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart)

Insights and trading breakthroughs happen when you get in to microscopic details on a select concept. My obession is stocks which really move. Understanding part of the puzzle can help you react better or anticipate better.

Now if you are a day trader and if you everyday analyse only the top 25 big movers, will it help in trading better......

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11 comments:

walter said...: nvec looking really sharp these last few days; Mar 2, 2007, 1:33:00 PM
Unknown said...: Although TRCR is under $10 stock it has quadrupled in the past year. Normally insiders would be dumping big time. Yet insider buying (15,000 shares) continues at these levels.
This stock has held up well during this correction and probably wouldn't be hurt be a recession (healthcare). I'm betting this one will double again in years time.; Mar 2, 2007, 1:45:00 PM
Pradeep Bonde said...: NVEC is combination of news catalyst+low float of 4.5 million+very high short interest.; Mar 2, 2007, 1:50:00 PM
pleadership said...: The question whether you traded them. We all can do a screen like that. You talk alot about the buy side and screening. That is the easy part of the process. What about the sell side?; Mar 2, 2007, 2:49:00 PM
Pradeep Bonde said...: "The question whether you traded them. We all can do a screen like that. You talk alot about the buy side and screening. That is the easy part of the process. What about the sell side?"

If I buy stocks after they make only 100% plus move. Obviously I will have some stocks which make 200% plus move.
I trail with a stop and there are several ways of seting up trailing stops.; Mar 2, 2007, 3:14:00 PM
leon t said...: this is a good topic to explore, and perhaps you can explain what you see in a company like syx. i always get tiger direct's catalogs and i also go to their stores in miami. however, i can never bring myself to buy any big ticket item due to their dependency on rebates.
in one of the comments in yahoo. there's an article on their practices (deceptive), the complaints with the florida attorney's general's office, (too numerous to mention), and their financial accounting (semi deceptive). deloitte abandoned them and ernst and young seems to be on its way out. now the person who wrote the article is short syx. however, just their hiding of the fact that they own the same company that handles their rebates for them, seems to be a trainwreck waiting to happen. other than selling computers cheap, if you can get the rebate, and momentum which it seems to be enjoying. what other clues do you see? you have great content, thanks; Mar 2, 2007, 3:38:00 PM
Pradeep Bonde said...: http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/hilite.asp?Symbol=SYX
The stock broke out on day of earnings some quarters back when it had earnings acceleration.
The short sellers might be correct, but in market good earnings attract buyers.; Mar 2, 2007, 3:46:00 PM
James said...: I have 2 remarks:

1) You said: "The idea is to try and isolate factors which lead to a stock making significant moves." Could you which factors you have isolated so far (beside the factors described in "How to find a stock which makes a 1500% move in a year")

2) Your method gives a great importance to the 100% plus universe (defined as 100% plus growth in the last 260 days).
Why did you choose a 100% instead of 150% or 75%? Do you have some data/stats/other facts that lead you to this conclusion?; Mar 3, 2007, 2:45:00 AM
leon t said...: thanks for responding. well, now that we know that syx has gone up 300%, and that those earnings are dependent on the company hiding the amount of rebates it has to pay,, or just not paying them. which is the basis for the complaints with the attorney general's office,not to mention that they hide a flagrant conflict of interest. the question becomes, do you buy it?.; Mar 3, 2007, 9:45:00 AM
Pradeep Bonde said...: James:
1. I have isolated 22 factors which have varying degree of predictability. Some of them are proprietary learnings. But the big ones are earnings or sales (momentum or acceleration), sector action, previous 2 years price action ,market direction, recent float turnover, in some specific industries regulatory action or tie ups (biotech and drugs), in some industries new ontracts or orders, plus factors like the Boucher Runaway criteria ( I have slightly modified that thinking to find number of days in price action which meets certain criteria). The proprietary factors are lumped under a heading I call "Virgin factors" which are factors indicative of neglect or out of favournes or contrariness.

2. I ran a simulation starting with 4% move from 260 days low to 200% move and chose a value based on optimisation. There are range of values which offer best results.260 is within that range.

Similarly for the 260 days I started with values of 5 day low to 365 days low and looked at optimised value. Similarly there are range of values which offer best results.; Mar 3, 2007, 10:48:00 AM
Pradeep Bonde said...: Leon t
If it breaks out and still meets the criteria yes. I have had two profitable trades so far in SYX.
Short hypothesis do not always work out in short time frames many times stocks double and triple inspite of the short hypothesis.
For example take REFR everyone knows the game going on but inspite of the history of the company the stock has doubled based on few press releases. Which has also happened earlier in its 35 years of existence. The short hypothesis of it being a press release company with a questionable technology is still valid hypothesis.
A strong speculative curent for time being overwhelms everything else. Momentum begets momentum.; Mar 3, 2007, 10:57:00 AM

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