1/26/2007

Big edge or small edge

As I mentioned some days ago, my plan this year is to go through all old books, articles and research which I have previously read instead of new books. One of the recurring theme once you start going through the material is big edge or small edge.
Big edge is structural, it is based on some fundamental understanding of how market works. It is enduring and it is narrow focused. For example take Peter Lynch. His objective was to find ten baggers. His entire edge was based on that key insight as to how to identify stocks early enough with potential to make a ten times move. Everything revolved around building that big edge. That lead him to concentrate on new innovative, young companies and research them thoroughly. In his long career, he found several of them. You will find similar stories of traders who wanted a big edge and found it using several methods.
On the other hand look around, you have proliferation of people claiming they have 25 cents edge or 1% or 5% edge. The meme going around is if you can find 1% everyday then ....... Most of these people use some sort of voodoo science of technical analysis to find such edges. Most of these edges are ephemeral and that is one of the reason you will find they vanish and many of the small edge traders periodically go through existential crisis.
The other problem with small edges is your cost of trading is very high. All those using small edges need several tools to identify their entries and exists. They need real time data, expensive scanning software and multi monitor set ups. Everything in small edges is tactical.If you have large edge you don't need all those fancy and expensive tools to find trades.
Another problem faced by small edge traders is psychological. So much of their results and outcome depend on their state of mind. Unless everyday they are perfectly psychologically aligned, they can not exploit their minuscule edge. Because if your edge is 1%, before you blink that opportunity is over. The psychologist catering to traders have found a receptive audience amongst these small edge traders. There is proliferation of psychological tools, profiles, tapes, 3 things to do kind of talismans being offered to these traders.
Many of these traders who can find 1% or 5% edges would significantly improve their returns, if they changed their focus to finding 10% or 50% edge, but often activity is more alluring than profitability.
As a trader there is a choice whether to pursue small edge or large edge. In a market where bulk of the participants are trying to perfect small edges, as a contrarian strategy itself, you should look at large edge. The paths to acquiring the edge are different depending on the choice you made. Like Peter Lynch if you went around in search of 10 baggers you will find several of them, same way if you look for 1% you will find 1%.

5 comments:

Unknown said...

Looks like a bit of a rally going on for some small caps on my screen, BITS, HLIT, USAP, HMIN, RKT. Has been a good week for me all things considered.

Pradeep Bonde said...

Gary
You are a master stock picker.

Unknown said...

Good point that the majority of the big money is trying to perfect small edges.

Short term (small edge) trading requires a personality type: stimulation-seeking and cut-throat decision making. Short term traders may prefer their timeframe if they are successful as they can experience the same winning percentages as longer term players but take many more opportunities. They can also invest or "trade" in longer timeframes to smooth their equity curve and participate in the current economic conditions.

I find that except for limited short-term trading strategies like buy-write, that longer term traders are "structurally" kept out of short term trades because they do not possess the skill, talent, or even interest. Needless to say, there are many more successful short term traders who participate in longer term trading as another source of income than vice-versa.

The consummate trader is one who exploits orthogonal edges on as many timeframes as possible.

Matt said...

F, you always have some interesting comments to read. Any plans to start a blog of your own?

Unknown said...

Thanks 65. I am learning a lot from Pradeep on how to think properly like a disciplined investor and how to build a longer term portfolio. For now, will stick to the occasional comment.