3/10/2006

Too late to short to early to go long

At the current stage of the market it is too volatile for both side. The short trade should have been done many days ago. The long plays are risky as breakouts fail or do not follow through. It might be a good market for short term traders, but for my style of trading it is time to be on sideline.
So here are some thoughts on what I see currently:
1 Everyone is bashing GOOG. Last time it happened was at IPO time. Those who chickened out due to press and analyst bashing missed out on 400% move. That's the way the street works. For all you know some of the big employers of these bashers might be adding to their position. The stock is down around 25% from the top, and support might emerge here.
2 The retail, telecom,drugs, and biotech sectors are setting up for a move once the selling abates. I see lot of potential plays in these sectors and holding on to some profitable positions and adding to them.
3 The Dow is within 1% of its high, S&P 2% of its high, Russell 3% of its high, and the NASDAQ 4% and the perma bears are already dancing in the street.

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