Situational Awareness for July 20, 2026
July 20, 2026
Long-term: We are in a secular bull market that started in 2009. 2022 launch of AI has given further legs to this secular trend. Secular bull markets historically last 15 to 20 years and end with bubbles, overexpansion, and inflation.
Short-term SA: we remain in a range-bound market. 20% of the study on the bullish side is at 15, indicating a strong probability of a short-term 3- to 5-day bounce.

Breakouts are unlikely to have follow-through here till a breadth thrust happens.
In a choppy, range-bound market, a good breakout will look as good as it did under better market conditions, but then fail to follow through.


Or look at $GS

Focus : EP EP9(very selectively) DEP
Thank you so much for the SA Pradeep.
ReplyDeleteI have two questions. If you answer I would be deeply grateful.
1) You said that when the 20% of stocks goes below 20 there is a high probability of 3-5 Day bounce. It means that we can have 3-5 days of follow through. With this in mind why are you not focused on short term momentum bursts?
2) What do you wanna see in a strong breadth thrust? 400-500+ 4% Up day?