1/31/2007

A stocks which made 1500% move in a year- What are significant moves


Here is a stock which has gone up around 1500% in last 260 days.That is a significant move.
FRPT,Force Protection Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart

What is a significant move in a stock. Assuming you are not a high frequency day trader, then you would define significant move as 5% in a day for individual stock. If you add say another criteria of saying the 5% move should be accompanied by volume increase over yesterday. So lets say 5% move on higher volume is significant. The real reason for this is to find out how many stocks make that kind of a move in a day. Supposing 5% of the total universe of stock on a given day has 5% move, is that significant.Does a one day significant move indicate future returns.

Many of the things which I look at on daily basis and monitor is basically a variation of significant moves on various time frames. A 5% move on individual stock on higher volume with a cut off off 100000 plus volume to me is significant move based on past studies of stock price moves. Similarly a move of 2% on any of the Index is significant. Or a move of 2% on a sector is significant. It is more significant if it happens on higher volume.

Taking the same logic further a 50% move in a stock in a month is extremely significant move. It indicates an aberration. A 25% move in a month in a stock is on a significance scale also very significant.A 25% move in a quarter is significant in a market where the average long term drift is less than two digits. Similarly a move of 100% in a year on a stock is a significant move.

Now if you constantly study significant moves and build an iterative model over a period of time you will probably learn a lot about such moves. A brute force backtesting might give you even greater understanding in to such moves. A combination of backtesting and continuous iteration gives you a live model of what makes a stock make a significant move.

Largely my study of significant moves supplemented by additional insights has helped me understand what kind of stocks are likely to make a significant move for a given time frame. There are factors one can isolate which increase probability of a stock making a significant move. That gives you a significant edge in avoiding the bad or low probability trades.

Here are 25 stocks which have made significant moves in last 260 days. Is there any thing one can learn from them. How many of them are on your radar.
ANGN,Angeion Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CHDX,Chindex International Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CLEC,Us Lec Corp Cl A (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CRVL,Corvel Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CTDC,China Technology Development Group Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ENPT,En Pointe Technologies (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
FTGX,FiberNet Telecom Group Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
GVP,Gse Systems Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
HTI,Halozyme Therapeutics Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
INAP,Internap Network Svcs Cp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ININ,Interactive Intelligence (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ISIG,Insignia Systems Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
KNOL,Knology Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MEMY,Memory Pharmaceuticals (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MSI,Movie Star Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
NAVI,Navisite Incorporated (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ONSM,Onstream Media (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PRGX,Prg-schultz Intl Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PRH,VitaCube Systems Holdings Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PTT,Vcg Holding Copr (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ROHI,Rotech Healthcare Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SLP,Simulations Plus Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SMTK,SIMTEK Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SOFO,Sonic Foundry Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SVVS,SAVVIS Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart

Studying significant moves on daily basis can give you a significant edge in finding stocks likely to make significant moves in the future.

More posts in this series: Significant Moves

7 comments:

F. said...

This is ----ing beautiful. Longer than Long John Silver in NQ and the 44 calls this morning.

F. said...

QQQQ making a move from S2 to R3? The explosive move I called yesterday.

F. said...

Of course, many bloggers are going to look back and say, "Oh that was obvious, NR7 bar on low volume yesterday." But how many capitalized on it?

NO DooDahs said...

Not trading Q, but over 100% long as of Monday morning. Good times. Let's make hay while the sun is shining!

F. said...

Chinese stocks take a beating and US stocks up. Fits my hypothesis that we are going to see another Asian financial crisis where a flight to liquidity in US markets will propel us to another bull market run through then end of the decade. US stocks are cheap compared to the rest of the world. Growth will lead the next leg. Of course, we'll see a correction by summer before the big leg starts.

F. said...

Recent WSJ article saying that crazy retail daytrading by novices is blowing up in China. These markets are not regulated well. They will crash and burn. Already seen some shake-ups in India and Thailand.

Walter said...

CTX breakout above MA200 on good volume