Last week I received this unsolicited study on trend following. Essentially it says if you buy all the breakout to All Time High you will outperform the market.
The idea of buying All Time High has been around for long time. The logic being there is no overhead resistance at all time high.The Market Wizard, Ed Seykota has also bee n often sited for his observation - take note when the market makes all time high. William O'Neill has also been an advocate of this method.
So should you buy All Time High? The problem is on a given day there are more than 100 All Time Highs. More than that this concept of overhead resistance is unsubstantiated assertion. If a stock has to go up it will go up no matter what. If you take the top 100 yearly performers for last 25 years you will find stocks have made substantial gain even though they had significant overhead resistance.
There is a way to make the All Time High breakout system more profitable and workable. The clue to that is in Jesse Livermore book.
Note: Here is the Livermore Book I was refering to.
As mentioned in my earlier post, Jesse Livermore offers a better way to play the All Time High signal.
"For instance, let us say that a new stock has been listed in the last two or three years and its high was 20, or any other figure, and that such a price was made two or three years ago. If something favorable happens in connection with the company, and the stock starts upward, usually it is safe play to buy the minute it touches a brand new high."
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