What can we learn from stocks up 50% plus in a month
Symbol | Price Per Share | Price 20 Days Ago | % change in month |
GCI | 13.24 | 8.68 | 53 |
PER | 29.84 | 17.18 | 74 |
RINO | 25.30 | 13.45 | 88 |
PQ | 7.86 | 5.01 | 57 |
YONG | 11.27 | 7.19 | 57 |
AM | 23.19 | 14.31 | 62 |
REXX | 10.02 | 6.45 | 55 |
TRIT | 18.25 | 9.36 | 95 |
PZE | 19.19 | 6.77 | 183 |
LIWA | 9.79 | 6.20 | 58 |
SRI | 8.82 | 5.31 | 66 |
FFBC | 13.23 | 8.11 | 63 |
DEER | 11.60 | 6.19 | 87 |
ASPM | 12.00 | 6.83 | 76 |
HSR | 19.13 | 11.31 | 69 |
KITD | 11.50 | 7.55 | 52 |
NTL | 14.50 | 9.50 | 53 |
Comment posted by malivo on 10/13/2009 12:42:00 AM EST
I looked at the list strictly from technical point of view:
1) 9 out of the 16 stocks were already up more than 100% during the 6 months preceding the last month run. The best performing stocks during the last 6 months tend to significantly outperform the rest during the next 3 to 6 months. 2)Look for short-term consolidation, which could take the form of tight sideways action or a decline to rising 10, 20 or 50 dma and by on high volume 4%+ move. 3) Most of the moves were started by EP days, where the stock closes in the high of its EP day'price range - a nice green candle with almost no shadows at the bottom or the top. 4) Catalysts of the move were either sector popularity (measured by RS): 5 Chinese stocks, or an earnings surprise: AM, GCI... 5) Using proper equity selection models (like catalysts based EP and Double Trouble) is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for consistent profits. Position sizing is incredibly important. Tighter stops usually bring much higher reward/risk ratio trades, but the success rate is smaller. If you don't risk more than 1% of your capital on your ideas, the few big winners will more than compensate for the many small losses and break-even trades. Using wider stop could also be profitable, but it requires longer holding period and higher success rate. |
2 Relative linearity is other name for what you are saying. Stock likely to go up a lot have very orderly pullbacks and breakouts.
3 Behind every move there is a catalyst which in some cases is identifiable at the beginning of a move.
4 In short run sector momentum is most important catalyst
5 Based on my many years of looking at these stocks, most recurrent catalyst is earnings surprise.
Symbol | Price Per Share | Formula Change | Price 260 Days Ago |
LVS | 17.72 | 1140 | 1.42 |
TCK | 32.06 | 1097 | 2.67 |
DNDN | 28.73 | 997 | 2.61 |
GNW | 11.79 | 1288 | 0.84 |
PALM | 17.01 | 1090 | 1.42 |
HGSI | 18.74 | 3727 | 0.48 |
ODP | 7.54 | 1158 | 0.59 |
RINO | 25.30 | 1159 | 2.00 |
SRZ | 4.16 | 1389 | 0.27 |
CAR | 12.06 | 3162 | 0.36 |
PIR | 4.41 | 3583 | 0.11 |
CNO | 5.12 | 1800 | 0.26 |
ARM | 8.94 | 2386 | 0.35 |
NG | 5.61 | 1122 | 0.45 |
TRW | 17.76 | 1061 | 1.52 |
DAN | 6.99 | 3233 | 0.20 |
PNX | 4.39 | 1900 | 0.21 |
LEE | 3.79 | 1257 | 0.27 |
DTG | 26.33 | 4081 | 0.62 |
BZ | 5.73 | 2196 | 0.24 |
AXL | 7.17 | 2293 | 0.29 |
CHRS | 5.40 | 1004 | 0.38 |
PMI | 3.67 | 1087 | 0.30 |
VCI | 19.72 | 1662 | 1.11 |
AIB | 9.04 | 1075 | 0.76 |
LZB | 9.31 | 1428 | 0.60 |
MOD | 10.89 | 1198 | 0.83 |
OMN | 7.51 | 1734 | 0.40 |
TRGT | 18.14 | 1007 | 1.63 |
PLAB | 5.24 | 1358 | 0.35 |
BZH | 5.61 | 2062 | 0.25 |
KOG | 2.60 | 1274 | 0.18 |
IRE | 18.44 | 2427 | 0.72 |
KERX | 2.36 | 1875 | 0.11 |
MIC | 9.33 | 1068 | 0.79 |
RODM | 6.11 | 2960 | 0.19 |
HSNI | 16.77 | 1057 | 1.44 |
FTWR | 1.41 | 1675 | 0.07 |
SMRT | 12.53 | 1154 | 0.99 |
ETM | 7.63 | 1264 | 0.55 |
QTM | 1.45 | 1117 | 0.11 |
DDRX | 24.30 | 7742 | 0.30 |
UEC | 3.41 | 1700 | 0.18 |
LTXC | 1.79 | 1700 | 0.09 |
SCSS | 6.28 | 3045 | 0.19 |
VVTV | 3.38 | 1684 | 0.18 |
JAZZ | 7.96 | 1323 | 0.55 |
COT | 7.70 | 1051 | 0.66 |
CVGI | 7.73 | 1513 | 0.47 |
OFG | 13.29 | 1346 | 0.91 |
OGXI | 36.12 | 1513 | 2.23 |
CATM | 8.66 | 1214 | 0.65 |
JRN | 4.49 | 998 | 0.40 |
LNET | 7.38 | 1408 | 0.48 |
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