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Fed induced volatility

  • Fed decision days tend to be volatile and more so in bear market. Yesterday was classic example of that.
  • The market had a full up and down cycle within hours of the decision.
  • Normally the real impact of Fed decision manifests itself by 3rd day.
  • With lot of stimulus in pipeline , it should impact the market positively in the long run.
  • However in the short run, this market is still tricky.
  • When leaders breakdown severely, like we have seen in past few days, it is not easy to put together a rally. It takes time. Plus the old leaders are not necessarily going to come back, a new leadership will emerge. The new leadership becomes apparent only after the selling phase stabilizes.
  • As of now in this market the fast selling phase ended on 1/23/2008 with a 900 plus day. Since then market has attempted to put together a small rally, now we will see if the market holds up well. As of now it is the line in sand. A long side way move or a volatile range might be better for the longevity of next bull phase. However markets do not always act as per expectations.
  • The bottom-line is that this market phase as indicated by Market Monitor is not ideal for growth or momentum based strategies on long side if your holding periods are more than few hours or days.
  • Bear markets are essential. In fact they are very good for growth investors. From the gloom of bear market when a new bull market starts, you find several straight up growth stock rockets.
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America Still Works

Newspapers and popular bloggers make a career out of scaring the shit out of you. Bearishness always sells. It is more popular. It can alway...

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Home Builders and home improvement retailers lead the bounce

Market Monitor: Bearish A low volume bounce after Friday negativity saved the day. Retail and banks are the major beneficiary of the bounc...

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A severe bear market will be better

Market Monitor: Bearish Two days of rally attempt petered out on Friday. Even a catalyst like good earnings from Microsoft could not get th...

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Waiting for leadership

This bounce is only for extremely nimble and short term traders. Day to day action is choppy and news driven. Breakouts are happening on gap...

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Reflex Bounce

It was a impressive reflex bounce. With readings of 900 plus on long side. There is a high probability that this bounce might last for few w...

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Muddled Action

Market Monitor: Bearish As expected it was a wild action. The panic was averted by significant interest rate cut by Fed. However we still h...

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Methodology trumps the market

There is lot of blame game going around today. It is human tendency to blame others and government and policy makers for the market action. ...

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Market Roundup

Market Monitor: Bearish It will be a tricky day on Tuesday after such a major carnage in the worldwide markets. There will be some Fed rea...

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Market Roundup

Market Monitor= Bearish Another day with 500 plus stocks down 4% plus. With series of 300 plus days in last 15 days, we still are not at e...

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Market Roundup

Market Monitor: Bearish One of those crazy days. 300 stocks up 400 down. Today morning before market open it looked like we will have one o...

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Market Roundup

Market Monitor: Bearish Monday rally was never a convincing one and so Tuesday's action was no surprise A 600 plus downside day has lot...

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Market Roundup

Market Monitor: Bearish Market continues to be in bearish territory based on all Market Monitor indicators. The bounce on Monday failed to ...

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More books for growth investors Part 1

In my previous post I talked about two books on growth investing for those interested in becoming growth investor. While those two books pr...

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Market Monitor

Market Monitor: Bearish Market continues to be in bearish territory based on all Market Monito r indicators. Wednesday and Thursday was th...

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Which book

One of the most often asked question by new traders is which book do I recommend. One of the problem new traders have is even if you find th...

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Market Roundup

Market Monitor: Bearis h It looked like we will have 9 straight days of losses. We were heading for another 500 plus down day. Then the refl...

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Market Monitor

Market Monitor: Bearish Selling pressure was intense after the morning bounce failed Recent leaders are under pressure and one...

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Historical sector tendencies

When looking at sector one needs to look at some historical sector tendencies. Lot of people are attracted to wrong kind of sectors. Gold a...

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Invest Like a Shark: How a Deaf Guy with No Job and Limited Capital Made a Fortune Investing in the Stock Market

Very funny and accurate review of Invest Like A Shark. I don't know how it survived on Amazon site. Amazon never published my negative r...

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Reflex Bounce

The intense downward pressure we have witnessed in last six session has set us up for a reflex bounce and initiating shorts in such environm...

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Market Monitor

The Market Monitor is currently in bearish mode. The bounce from 18th December onward, quickly has given back most of the gain. 65 days rat...