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Stockbee Market Monitor is breadth based market timing tracker. Extremely positive/negative breadth is used for market timing.
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160 comments:
What is the second to last column, "T2108"? Thanks!
What is the purpose of the second to last column, "T2108" and how is it calculated. Thanks!
% of stocks above 40 day moving average. Readings below 20 lead to botoms
From the market monitor how do we know if the approaching correction is a major correction (say 10% or more) or a minor one (less than 10%)? Btw thanks a lot for sharing you knowledge through this blog. I have learned a lot and elevated my trading skills to the next level.
If you see major breadth deterioration and series of 700 plus days on 4% plus down then it is likely to develop in to larger correction.
Can you explain what the "5 Day ratio" and the "10 Day ratio" calculates?
It is ratio of 5 days of 4% b/o /5 days 4% b/d same for 10 days using 10 day data.
From where do you gather the data to calculate these? ie, no of stocks below 4% in a week etc. Thanks,
From Teechart data base.
Hello Pradeep,
Today's data (row) is not showing up. Is there any way to fix it? I'm not sure if the 10 day ratio has gone below 0.5 or not, though maybe close. Can you please let me know?
Thanks,
updated. the ratio is approaching .5
are the large number of red bars on "Number of stocks up 50% + in a month" showing near market top? how much time do you think before the bull rest/pause? weeks/months? thanks.
In next smaller time frame a pullback likely.
now that we are at the other extreme, what are you watching to 'confirm' a bullish bias? more green bars, 5 day or 10 day ratio turning to 1 or do you want to see more selling extreme like maybe 1000+ on 4%+ down day before believing the market will turn around?
Signs of extreme bearishness in Primary indicator. If I see number of stocks up 25% in Q below 300 I will be bullish. At the moment not enough bearishness.
now that most the pundit are saying it is a 'great' time to buy at bargain so we might see a short term bounce don't you think?
Yes
is the market back to normal already? no need to see extreme reading on the primary indicators?
Hi, can you tell me what is the calculation for the 5 days of 4% b/o /5 days 4% b/d? What is criteria for numerator, and what is criteria for denominator?
Thanks!!
Keith
total of 5 days 4% b/o divided by total of 5 days 4% b/d
Thank you. What is the input criteria for the 4% b/o and 4% b/d scans?
Search on the site I have posted my scans for all Market Monitor fields.
in your experience when 25% plus quarter go below 200 indicates a good time to buy the dip?
yes
when you see 5 day ratio and 4% up/down day oscillating between plus and minus, is that an indication that more trouble ahead?
no
Holy Cow,.....in the years I have been keeping my MM, I have not seen the Primary Ratio this low, in fact I thought it was already extreme, but yesterday was record....means should be a bounce, "Load the Boat," but in what???
@7
TQQQ , TNA and beaten down index component stocks
now that we got >1000+ day... do you need to see more >500 days before you are convince the buyers are back?
no.
What is the yellow color significance to 12/24/18 day. It resulted major reversal next day!!!
Half day trading
Another follow through day Friday on MM. It's exciting to see what's been "noted," materialize in MM. While most are bombarded with doom and gloom, the flip materialized just like was made to do. @7
Oh, ok. Noting to do with market state. I was wondering if it was indicating something!
Looks like market is ready to move up from here next week or two.
May be spoke too soon. I see that T2108 column has very high readings in 80'a range. Does this mean it is overbought and due for normal pullback or consolidation? Or can it continue to rally for another week or two as I was saying earlier in spite of this?
Yes. Abnormal strength tend to resolve in consolidation or pullback
is the pullback or consolidation after abnormal strength a good entry point? if b/o above the consolidation point, kind of like your anticipation trading.
yes
T2108 consistently above 85LEVEL and still market continuing higher looks like rare thing happening. I haven't seen these numbers even during 2017 Q4 strong run up or even before. Did anything change in calculating this attribute or market is just too strong this
time? I was thinking market is ripe for some kind of counter trend multiday level pullback, but don'e see it!!!
Excessively positive breadth is not immediately bearish. Unlikely excessively bearish breadth, which gives very good signal on bullish side , excessive positive has no good signalling record.
We seem to be in uncharted territory here, breath numbers off the chart, stay cautious but some very nice set upa taking place. Trade price action not a bias, trade chart set ups, not a market condition, place a tight stop.
Yes, looks like melt up setup next week at least for a week on trade optimism and then probably pullback from march 1st week.
Next 5 days should be what I call, UUU_UP phase (unthinkable, unimaginable, unbelievable move up == melt up) Just blindly trade it if it happens and quickly exit as soon as it is done!
Don't predict market direction, just trade set ups with tight stops as market is at extremes. Look for set ups.
@7
Hmm, Market looks like changed it's mind. Multi-day pullback coming, finally!
Again, don't predict any direction, trade your charts and set ups,..tight stops if you aren't comfortable with market direction. You must trade the chart set ups, and watch price action. @7
PLEASE FIX COLOR OF 5 DAY RATIO COLUMN. SHOULD BE GREEN IN ABOVE 2.0
THANK YOU FOR FIXING 5 DAY RATIO COLOR. I THINK IT WOULD BE AND SMOOTHER AND MORE USEFUL FOR TRADING IF ABOVE 1.5 IS GREEN INSTEAD OF ABOVE 2.0
thanks for your suggestion. I do not really use it for trading unless it is at extremes
Looks like market is ready for multi-day move up next week.
Looks like market ready for multi-day move down for few days next week.
Hmm, looks like already bottomed and ready to run up again!
Looks like melt up setup for next couple of weeks to form some kind of top and then pull back start from 04/20.
It is hard to trade setups like this melt ups from overbought condition. Anybody has any tips, just in case this turns out
to be true.
Hmm, slowly grinding up for melt up next week or ready to start multi-day pullback next week? Next week will be interesting.
Read the trend of the indexes, are they up, down, or sideways,....find your set up,...either anticipate or wait for open,...no predictions, that will get you in trouble and create a bias.
Yup, that is what works!!! I was just trying to come up with most likely next Multiday Level moves with anticipation for it,
not a prediction, and trying the setups within that anticipated moves. From 03/11 until now I was mostly trying to LONG the
setups and most of the times they are working out. Not sure how long this will continue!!!
And as I trade futures only they make decent profits in the given just few days time when right, usually 3-5 days and exit and look
for next setup. More work on daily basis but also decent profits within short period of time!
I thought we are done here. But looks like another multiday up swing for next 1-2 weeks to new all time highs and then well deserved multi-week pullback after that.
Oh ok, That was a trap. We were really done that day on may 4th for next 4 weeks!!. Now is the time for starting upside in next 1-2 weeks for a period of minimum 4-6 weeks. Let us see how this forecast plays out.
that was a good start!
Good follow through too. May be next 2-3 weeks upside continue.
from the market monitor assessment as of now, does it look like it is ready to rally to next all time high from here or does it look like more downside/crash continue which started on 08/01? Just academic question, I know we have to deal with whatever it is next week in real time as appropriate. Just curious how to interpret the market monitor as of now for high probability move here?
Pradip ji,
Which monitor column do you watch for possible sign of a bottom or top. I backtested your data and you seemed to find the bottom on December 26 using t2108 decreasing and changing back on. How do you get a feeling of a possible correction or pullback with the data in the monitor. I know picking top or bottom is difficult but any input would be beneficial for my research. Thank you.
Extremely bearish breadth= bullish and start of a bounce or bottom.
Short term extremely bullish breadth= pullback.
For tops there are no reliable indicators as it is gradual process.
I look for extremes in breadth on any time frames to reduce or add risks.
Rest of the time breadth is not much useful
Hi Pradeep, does it look like we continue rally for next 1-2 weeks based on the
breadth you see in the MMI or do you see any warning signs?
Yes rally in to year end.
I am interested in joining your membership site. Where do I sign up?
I am interested in joining your membership site. Where do I sign up?
Hi Pradeep, 02/20 and 02/21 were huge down days in stock market, still MMI breadth doesn't reflect it. Does it mean it is still bullish or does it mean just starting after 5 months solid rally?
more selling might come in
Good call!
Looks like bottom is in for a week of bounce, at least.
Why only 200 stocks up 4%+ in March 2? Most of the index are up 4%+. Is it because of the second condition, V>V1?
yes
Looks like MMI is indicating very oversold condition. Does the MMI now indicates possible bounce next week or more selloff next week?
Short term bounce
Pradeep, does it look like the Stock up 25%+ in a quarter will get down below the 200 level? Are you putting money in your retirement account if that happens?
Not yet extreme , but once it gets there yes will put some money to work.
Pradeep, what's the risk/reward difference between buying Q at the extreme vs when it goes back to green from red? As we saw this week, it doesn't always reach <200 before a bottom on the D, M and other secondary indicators.
you can miss few % point . Waiting for green is confirmation but can be late . dollar cost averaging down may be one way to handle.
Market is extremely volatile. Based on 25% down in quarter it was extreme on 3/12, however market is continuing to drop over last several days, is this a good time to dollar cost average in Pradeep?
yes. I have been doing that
HI Pradeep, based on the breadth in MMI, does it look like bottom is in or few more weeks of correction continue? I remember you marked 12/24/18 as the BOTTOM DAY which was the bottom for next 14 months!!!
What is happening currently has no model. So even though I feel major selling is behind us it might take some time for market to settle down.
Is there any reason for the data not being updated? This is one of my favorite sites to use to help understand where the market is at. thanks
Any reason why it hasn't updated in a day? Just wanted to check in because I find this data really helpful. Thanks
it is updated daily. By mistake it had 18th date instead of 20th April, that has been fixed now
Hi Pradeep,
Thank you for the great resource.
What happens when the 10 day ratio is positive but the 25% change in a quarter is positive.(or vice versa) I mean what to do when the signals conflict?
Which is the best indicator in market monitor in terms of backtesting of these two?
Simon
25% change in a quarter
When 25% change in a quarter from from positive to negative, are there any other clues you use from market monitor to decide if it likely to be a continuing trend or just a brief flip (for example, the 21 and 22 April this year, the indicator went red for two days then changed to green again.)
It is total picture not just one thing I look at.
What are the other most important points to look at in order of priority?
t2108 rising or falling . Daily trends . 34/13 trends. number of stocks up 50% and 25% in month
Thanks very much Pradeep!
Hi Pradeep,
In calculating T2108 is the requirement dollar volume above 250000 USD or 100000 shares traded? Do you have any records of T2108 prior to 2013?
Thanks, Simon
T2108 is worden indicator in tc2000. I do not calculate it. In tc2000 there is data for it for many years
Thanks again
Thanks again
Was just wondering if I could access T2108 in 2011 and earlier as of now, because I know there is a daily bar limit on TC2000.
Thanks, Simon
Get tc2007 it is free for tc2000 suvs. It has data from when worden started teacking it
Will do.
Looks like market is at critical decision point fo continue upside for 9th week or reverse here. Very interesting setup. Let us see what mkt decides this time. Pradeep was pretty accurate about 03/23 bottom and hopefully he is accurate this time about a possible 10% correction here!
looks likely to pullback
Looks like it needed 1 extra day in 10th week to suck everybody in and then start the expected pullback now!
Hi Pradeep, the huge drop Thu changed anything to the strong rally in progress? Likely to continue 2 more weeks or done?
range bound
Good call! Last 3 weeks it was range bound. Now, Is it ready for rally up again or pullback down or range continue?
Pullback
So last week was up and now next week down? Looks like either multi week consolidation in progress or 4 week top process done and now ready for sell off? Next week will be interesting. If neither then another week up ???
with so many red signs on the MM but with low T2108, are you being more careful on selection and entry?
I am doing more short term trades
Hi Pradeep,Looks like market ready to break out to upside next week. Of course exact
opposite is always a possibility. What is the take here based on MMI next week?
Range
Last 8 weeks was range bound market mostly as Pradeep was deriving from MMI, good call!!! Now, Is Market ready to breakout from this 8 week range to upside or will
it continue range for few more weeks or break down to down side for few weeks?
What is the take here based on MMI and all other things you look at, now?
more range till election
Ok, Thanks! looks like 2019 script playing out in 2020 so far. 4 months strong rally 5 months sideways and then 4 months rally was the script in 2019. Looks like similar
story developing for 2020. Not sure if the election result will change this script to down side after election for 2020.
Should we expect parabola into elections or is breadth only so-so?
Thanks
we might correct before that
Hi Pradeep,
I tried to run the same scans as you did, but was getting different numbers. Are you scanning US Common Stocks only? And do you scan at a particular time of the day? Thank you.
Yes it is only US common stocks. I 1 hour after close
Thank you Pradeep, I will try again tomorrow and see if I can get the same numbers as you.
Hi Pradeep,
I am using your scans on Telechart but I am still getting different numbers than you. For example, 8/31/2020 my numbers were 214, 394, 1524, 1063, 208, 82, 45, 11, 1686, 1303, 62.32, 3500.31. Also scanning US Common Stocks only. Any idea why that may be? Thank you in advance.
are you using version 20, which they made it as default version. In that unless you opt out of after hours data before calculating MM numbers you will get numbers that include after hours data.
See my scans and check if you have any error in yours.
https://www.tc2000.com/~5KOX25
Thank you Pradeep, that may be the case. I will do so without the after hours data today, appreciate your help.
Follow this process
Change the setting at top to Show Data for Regular hours
Close Tc2000
Open
Then the numbers will be right
It is a bit of mess with this new update but it is what it is. we have to find ways to get correct numbers.
Thanks for this blog Pradeep! Very insightful.
Primary indicators:
Number of stocks up 4% daily seems to indicate normal buying pressure.
Number of stocks down 25% in a quarter is still not below 200.
10 day ratio is below 2, so may not be an ideal time for swing longs.
Secondary indicators:
"Number of stocks up 50% + in a month" is consistently above 20, so you mention pullback is likely.
Also T2018 looks to be in a downtrend.
At this point, what is your take on the market? What are the you watching closely to indicate a market top and go light on positions.
Regards.
Excessive bullish breadth often leads to pullbacks
On 1/15/2021 the 175 and 278 are coloured pink, what does this colour coding mean?
negative day with less than 300
Can all MM data be downloaded as Excel sheets? I'd like to do some plotting and backtesting. Thanks
Hi Pradeep, Stock market at all time high with this poor breadth of MMI, Does this indicate near or almost top condition or does it indicate lot more upside ahead because it is not oversold yet?
Looks like higher possible or chop.
Hi Pradeep, Is this time to start rally until end of year or more correction > 6.6% this time for rest of October before rally to end of year? What does the MMI hint
on this as of now?
Hi Pradeep, Does the MMI hint the bottom here for next all time high in December or
correction will continue this time after 20 months non stop up from last correction?
Hello Pardeep
I am new to the stock market with a full-time job in the oil industry. I wanted to check if your Bootcamp is suitable for individuals who are working full time, with limited availability during trading hours. Your help is greatly appreciated.
Hey,
i´m also using TC200 and my question is, which screening conditions you choose for
price, volume and/or dollar volume to get this numbers?
Thanks & best regards!
Markus
Pradeep - I love your work. I would like to experiment with some data mining visualizations against your market monitor dataset using Power BI. Any chance you could share a copy of the raw data (as .csv, .xls, etc.)? If I come up with anything useful, I'll share. Thank you for what you do. I'm not a member, but I've learned a tremendous amount from the free education you provide.
Can you explain what do you mean by major breadth deterioration and series of 700 plus days on 4% plus down.
is the quarter data correct?
For quarter i asumme we are taking data of 65 days backwards, we must be taking all that fall since aug 16 in general market...
What is the difference between primary and secondary breadth indicators, especially as both have columnes for 25% up and 25% down?
Arcides: Quarter data looks correct to me. I run the same scans daily.
Unknown: Look at the column headers. The 25% up/down scans in primary vs secondary have different lookback periods.
@Unknown (Markus)
He screens for stocks with 100K daily trading volume but he never said what minimum price he screens for. Does anyone know the minimum price?
Hi Pradeep,
What would you consider as extreme levels for number of stocks up 25% +/- in a month? Would you use that particular level for reversals?
Thank you
No.
Hi Pradeep, great table - thanks for sharing! Could you please freeze top 2 rows to improve usability when scrolling. Thanks :)
Looks like a big bounce might be brewing.. but for some context it is helpful to look back to periods like March 2009 or March 2020 to appreciate how extreme the readings can get! Better to wait for some measure of confirmation than jump headlong into the shark pool and get devoured HAHA! Written by someone who is already long but currently in hot water LOL!
I am looking to download this data so I may use it in my spreadsheets. Is there a way I can get something that is copy and pastable?
I am looking to download some of this data for my own spreadsheets. Is there a way I can get something that is copy and pastable?
Yes. This is an opportunity to develop self-efficacy. The Google sheet is public and you can download the data. Google is your friend to help you accomplish this :-)
Good job. Thank you for sharing it. A very important resource
Pradeep Sir by quarter do you mean the last 3 months of trading or financial quarters.ie April May June etc...can you guide me on Indian stock markets also sir.
Pradeep Sir by quarter do you mean last 60 trading sessions or financial quarter. Also do you guide on Indian stock markets also.
Pradeep Sir by quarter do you mean last 60 trading sessions or financial quarter. Also do you guide on Indian stock markets also.
Bonde Kaka - Very Interesting - Tumcha research Jabardasta aahe!! - these breadth indicators are new to me though. First time I have seen these. Is there a detailed video online explaining how to interpret the data (Gelya 4 divsaat bharpur videos baghitle)? I usually follow Price/ volume Coupled with a Contrarian Stye (Contrarian to understand market catalyts) (Follow Thru Day + Power trend + Market School Model)with New Highs/ New Lows to get a sense of the choppiness in the market and help get a read about exposure. I am still learning this Art and build on my skill set. Again Great Work! Thank you for all your Posts! Jabrat!
Hi Pradeep, where do you get the Worden common stock universe count? Also, is there somewhere where I could grab all these tickers (and API or FTP maybe)? Thanks.
i am in a dilemma - actually, I made an error entering into TQQQ on 05/01. I was at work watching the T2108 closely. I entered TQQQ in the last 2 hrs of trading and it sharply reversed and closed 2% under the buy point. I was trying to manage work and my TQQQ position and panicked after I saw the reversal - I sold out right at the bottom for the day. TQQQ then recovered and never looked back starting 05/02 - I could not gather the courage to get back in - so I went from an Offensive mode to full defense mode ended up buying the FANG ETF to play it safe and missed out on a major move. Any suggestions from - members and Pradeep to help keep this from happening again?
My English is very weak
Can I subscribe and get the benefit in Arabic?
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