Blogger Sentiment Poll Signals Top

After fighting the tape for several months the "prominent bloggers" are now bullish.

June 18th Blogger Sentiment Poll

This week's Poll is a new Ticker Sense record! The Blogger Sentiment Poll has never been this bullish.

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall Street Abnormal Returns Ant & Sons (+) Alpha Trends Bill a.k.a. nodoodahs (N) Big Picture Bloggin' Wall Street Capital Chronicle Carl Futia (+) Confused Capitalist ContraHour Controlled Greed (N) Crossing Wall Street Crowder Blog CXO Advisory (+) Fly on the Wall Dash of Insight (+) Day Trade Team Daily Dose of Optimism (+) Daily Options Report Deal Breaker Dr. John Rutledge Elliot Wave Lives On (N) Fallond Stock Picks (+) Fickle Trader Global Economic Analysis Hedgefolios (-) Information Arbitrage (N) In The Money Daily Blog Watch Kirk Report Knight Trader (+) Learning Curve (-) MaoXian ChrisPerruna.com (+) Michael Comeau Millionaire Now (N) Naked Shorts Peridot Capitalist (-) Quant Investor (-) Random Roger's Big Picture (-) SeekingAlpha SelfInvestors Shark Report (+) Sigma Options Stock Advisors ShadowTrader Tech Trader Daily Trade King Trader Feed Trader Mike Trader Tim (-) Ugly Chart Wall Street Folly WindRiver Blog Wishing Wealth

Earlier Post: The mystery behind the blogger sentiment poll

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11 comments:

walter said...: would you characterize this inverse relationship as linear? i hope not.; Jun 18, 2007, 11:37:00 AM
Ritholtz said...: The Blogger poll has been around a very short time, and uses a very small sampling of bloggers.

Its kinda hard to conclude it has been well tested or verified.

Meanwhile, as the bloggers get bullish, the analysts are at their most Bearish ever:

Wall Street Analysts More Bearish Than Ever; More Accurate, Too http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
pid=20601109&sid=aj9Stdj50pUo&

So which contrary indicator do you rely upon?; Jun 18, 2007, 11:45:00 AM
Pradeep Bonde said...: When a poll which in it entire life time of existence, struggled to cross 35% , suddenly becomes 50% bullish and when market is at or near high, I would go with "the prominent blogger" sentiment as contrarian.
Don't forget that the bloggers on that poll have the highest readership and followers. They represent the mass opinion.; Jun 18, 2007, 11:52:00 AM
Unknown said...: Uh-oh. I commented on your blog last week that when this happens it means we are very near a market top. I'm surprised though. I thought it would happen in July. I guess everybody is forecasting for end-of-quarter windows dressing.

I don't believe the correction is over like I said before. I don't think we are in a "garden variety" correction.; Jun 18, 2007, 3:39:00 PM
Chrisnyork said...: Finally...; Jun 18, 2007, 3:41:00 PM
Unknown said...: I would expect small caps and tech stocks to show relative strength compared to value for the rest of the summer now. Watching the tradding on friday showed moneyflows into the Nasdaq 100 wrt other sectors.

Market top forming!; Jun 18, 2007, 3:43:00 PM
Pradeep Bonde said...: The "prominent bloggers " have confirmed that they are the dumb money. A 24 point jump in sentiment in one week, after a mild criticism, just shows dumbness.
I am predicting this poll would close down, to avoid further embarrassment to these bloggers.; Jun 18, 2007, 3:49:00 PM
nodoodahs said...: Duh, 'dis stoopid blogger is gahna keep puttin' his dumb money picks out der publickly. Uh-huh.; Jun 18, 2007, 4:25:00 PM
Unknown said...: This is not the first time this happens. During the last round of criticism (late Feb.), the bloggers reacted by becoming more bullish which predicated the Feb. 27th correction 1 week early.

It seems also that blogger criticism for being "so wrong" is also indicative of an extedned market ripe for correction in the near term.; Jun 18, 2007, 4:35:00 PM
Robert Babak Rowshan said...: Yikes!

But empirical evidence is spotty. We can't really interpret this as contrarian because at times when they have turned bullish, they have been right.

So far they have gone bullish 5 times (6 if we count this but we still don't know the resolution of this 'signal'). Out of the 5 times, 3 have been correct. And 2 have been 'contrarian' (read: wrong).

At best the ticker sense poll is useless. And I agree that it will probably be discontinued soon.; Jun 18, 2007, 7:08:00 PM
Robert Babak Rowshan said...: btw, to answer barry, the analyst bearishness is a more long term positive note for the mkt - which I agree with.

this and other bearish notes are more short term - which I agree with also.

:-)

its a matter of time intervals.; Jun 18, 2007, 7:19:00 PM

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